Deportes Tolima 2–3 Independiente Medellin — pre-match prediction — Liga BetPlay — August 05, 2026

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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 3 August 05, 2026 01:15 Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague

Deportes Tolima

#2 · 16 pts

2 – 3

Final score

Independiente Medellin

#3 · 15 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Independiente Medellin wins

S. Guzman 56' (pen.)

J. Hernandez (ast. E. Valencia) 84'

1' D. Catano

16' (ast. Yony Gonzalez) J. Montano

57' (ast. J. Montano) J. Cordoba

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 57% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 21%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 2–3 Independiente Medellin. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.62

Actual xG

1.53

Saves

66%

Possession

34%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

D. Catano⚽

16'

ast. Yony Gonzalez · J. Montano⚽

34'

J. Cordoba / D. Catano ↕

H. E. Martinez Yepez

41'

47'

J. Medina

⚽S. Guzman (pen.)

56'

57'

ast. J. Montano · J. Cordoba⚽

60'

J. Varela

63'

A. Simarra / Yony Gonzalez ↕

↕ J. Mosquera / K. Florez

65'

↕ H. E. Martinez Yepez / L. Sanchez

65'

↕ A. Parra Osorio / J. Hernandez

65'

↕ C. Arrieta / E. Valencia

66'

↕ J. Hurtado / J. Valencia

73'

H. Palacios / J. Montano ↕

73'

B. Perlaza / A. Martegani ↕

S. Guzman

77'

⚽J. Hernandez · ast. E. Valencia

84'

90'+5

B. Perlaza

Pre-match prediction

57.14%

Deportes

21.85%

21.01%

Independiente ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Independiente Medellin) 21.01% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Deportes

2.03

2.62

+0.59

Independiente

1.06

1.53

+0.48

Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (2.62 vs 1.53). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	20
2	Deportes Tolima	8	16
3	Independiente Medellin	6	15
4	Santa Fe	8	13
5	Millonarios	9	13
6	Atletico Nacional	5	12
7	Llaneros	8	11
8	Águilas Doradas	6	10
9	Bucaramanga	6	10
10	Once Caldas	7	9
11	Deportivo Cali	7	9
12	Cucuta	8	9
13	Fortaleza FC	9	8
14	Internacional de Bogota	8	8
15	Jaguares	8	7
16	Deportivo Pereira	6	6
17	Chico	6	5
18	Junior	6	3
19	Deportivo Pasto	8	2
20	Alianza Valledupar	7	2

Lineups

Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1

M. Ortega G 5.20

C. Arrieta 65' D 5.90

Yordan Osorio D 6.60

J. Angulo D 6.70

J. Mosquera 65' D 5.90

S. Guzmán 1 ⚽ M 8.70

H. Martínez 65' M 6.70

E. López M 6.90

L. Sandoval M 7.20

J. Cabezas 73' M 6.00

A. Parra 66' F 6.70

Bench

E. Valencia 1 👟 25' F 6.90

Gali Balanta G

J. Hernández 1 ⚽ 24' D 8.20

Joven Santiago F

J. Valencia 17' F 6.50

K. Flórez 25' F 6.90

L. Sánchez 25' M 7.30

V. Reyes M

Independiente Medellin 4-4-2

E. Chaux G 7.90

J. Mena D 6.20

J. Varela 60' D 5.90

L. Escorcia D 6.30

E. Mena D 6.00

J. Montaño 1 ⚽ 1 👟 73' M 8.30

A. Martegani 73' M 6.90

D. Moreno M 6.90

Y. González 1 👟 63' M 6.30

Daniel Cataño 1 ⚽ 34' F 7.90

J. Medina F 6.90

Bench

A. Simarra 27' D 6.30

B. Perlaza 17' M 6.50

C. Lucumi F

D. Moreno M

H. Palacios 17' D 6.30

Juan Córdoba 1 ⚽ 56' F 7.20

K. Klinger M

K. Mantilla D

S. Ichazo G

Best on the pitch

S. Guzmán

M · Deportes

8.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 70 pass

J. Montaño

M · Independiente

8.30

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 21 pass

J. Hernández

D · Deportes

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

Daniel Cataño

F · Independiente

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 15 pass

E. Chaux

G · Independiente

7.90

· 32 pass

L. Sánchez

M · Deportes

7.30

3 shots · 26 pass

Deportes Tolima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Ortega	G	90	5.20	—	—	—	22	21%	—	—	—
C. Arrieta	D	65	5.90	—	—	—	36	33%	—	—	—
Yordan Osorio	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	62	56%	2	—	—
J. Angulo	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	52	48%	2	—	—
J. Mosquera	D	65	5.90	—	—	—	29	26%	1	—	—
S. Guzmán	M	90	8.70	1	—	1	70	60%	—	1	—
H. Martínez	M	65	6.70	—	—	3	43	32%	2	1	—
E. López	M	90	6.90	—	—	1	44	42%	2	—	—
L. Sandoval	M	90	7.20	—	—	3	43	27%	—	—	—
J. Cabezas	M	73	6.00	—	—	—	13	8%	1	—	—
A. Parra	F	66	6.70	—	—	1	28	23%	1	—	—
E. Valencia	F	25	6.90	—	1	2	19	16%	—	—	—
J. Hernández	D	24	8.20	1	—	1	20	18%	—	—	—
J. Valencia	F	17	6.50	—	—	1	6	6%	—	—	—
K. Flórez	F	25	6.90	—	—	2	11	10%	3	—	—
L. Sánchez	M	25	7.30	—	—	3	26	23%	—	—	—

Independiente Medellin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
E. Chaux	G	90	7.90	—	—	—	32	14%	—	—	—
J. Mena	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	16	11%	2	—	—
J. Varela	D	60	5.90	—	—	—	16	12%	—	—	1
L. Escorcia	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	27	19%	1	—	—
E. Mena	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	21	12%	—	—	—
J. Montaño	M	73	8.30	1	1	2	21	18%	—	—	—
A. Martegani	M	73	6.90	—	—	1	20	17%	3	—	—
D. Moreno	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	33	27%	3	—	—
Y. González	M	63	6.30	—	1	1	13	10%	—	—	—
Daniel Cataño	F	34	7.90	1	—	1	15	14%	—	—	—
J. Medina	F	90	6.90	—	—	2	30	25%	—	1	—
A. Simarra	D	27	6.30	—	—	—	1	1%	1	—	—
B. Perlaza	M	17	6.50	—	—	—	3	—	1	1	—
H. Palacios	D	17	6.30	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Juan Córdoba	F	56	7.20	1	—	3	16	12%	3	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

The final score was Deportes Tolima 2–3 Independiente Medellin.

What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

The model assigned 57% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 21% to a draw, and 21% to an Independiente Medellin win.