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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 3 August 05, 2026 01:15 Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague
Deportes Tolima
#6 · 31 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Independiente Medellin
#8 · 23 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Independiente Medellin wins
S. Guzman 56' (pen.)
J. Hernandez (ast. E. Valencia) 84'
1' D. Catano
16' (ast. Yony Gonzalez) J. Montano
57' (ast. J. Montano) J. Cordoba
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 57% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 21%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 2–3 Independiente Medellin. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
10
11
Shots on target
5
2.62
Actual xG
1.53
2
Saves
8
66%
Possession
34%
9
Corners
2
14
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
1'
D. Catano⚽
16'
ast. Yony Gonzalez · J. Montano⚽
34'
J. Cordoba / D. Catano ↕
H. E. Martinez Yepez
41'
47'
J. Medina
⚽S. Guzman (pen.)
56'
57'
ast. J. Montano · J. Cordoba⚽
60'
J. Varela
63'
A. Simarra / Yony Gonzalez ↕
↕ J. Mosquera / K. Florez
65'
↕ H. E. Martinez Yepez / L. Sanchez
65'
↕ A. Parra Osorio / J. Hernandez
65'
↕ C. Arrieta / E. Valencia
66'
↕ J. Hurtado / J. Valencia
73'
73'
H. Palacios / J. Montano ↕
73'
B. Perlaza / A. Martegani ↕
S. Guzman
77'
⚽J. Hernandez · ast. E. Valencia
84'
90'+5
B. Perlaza
Pre-match prediction
57.14%
Deportes
21.85%
X
21.01%
Independiente ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Independiente Medellin) 21.01% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Deportes
2.03
2.62
+0.59
Independiente
1.06
1.53
+0.48
Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (2.62 vs 1.53). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10
Lineups
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
13 Miguel Ortega Miguel Ortega G 5.20
17 C. Arrieta C. Arrieta 65' D 5.90
71 Yordan Osorio Yordan Osorio D 6.60
3 Jan Ángulo Jan Ángulo D 6.70
33 Jherson Mosquera Jherson Mosquera 65' D 5.90
32 S. Guzmán S. Guzmán 1 ⚽ M 8.70
14 Homer Martinez Homer Martinez 65' M 6.70
28 Edwar López Edwar López M 6.90
9 Luis Sandoval Luis Sandoval M 7.20
7 Jorge Hurtado Jorge Hurtado 73' M 6.00
24 Adrián Parra Adrián Parra 66' F 6.70
Bench
8 Ever Valencia Ever Valencia 1 👟 25' F 6.90
23 G. Balanta G. Balanta G
11 Jader Valencia Jader Valencia 17' F 6.50
19 Joven Santiago Joven Santiago F
20 Junior Hernández Junior Hernández 1 ⚽ 24' D 8.20
18 K. Flórez K. Flórez 25' F 6.90
10 Luis Sánchez Luis Sánchez 25' M 7.30
16 V. Reyes V. Reyes M
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
25 Eder Chaux Eder Chaux G 7.90
13 J. Mena J. Mena D 6.20
5 Joaquin Varela Joaquin Varela 60' D 5.90
39 Luis Escorcia Luis Escorcia D 6.30
26 Esneyder Mena Esneyder Mena D 6.00
20 John Edwin Montaño John Edwin Montaño 1 ⚽ 1 👟 73' M 8.30
21 Agustín Martegani Agustín Martegani 73' M 6.90
6 Didier Moreno Didier Moreno M 6.90
11 Yony González Yony González 1 👟 63' M 6.30
10 Daniel Cataño Daniel Cataño 1 ⚽ 34' F 7.90
9 Jeison Medina Jeison Medina F 6.90
Bench
19 Alfonso Simarra Alfonso Simarra 27' D 6.30
14 Baldomero Perlaza Baldomero Perlaza 17' M 6.50
32 Carlos Lucumi Carlos Lucumi F
31 Diego Moreno Diego Moreno M
30 H. Palacios H. Palacios 17' D 6.30
70 J. Córdoba J. Córdoba 1 ⚽ 56' F 7.20
34 Keiner Klinger Keiner Klinger M
4 Kevin Mantilla Kevin Mantilla D
1 Salvador Ichazo Salvador Ichazo G
Best on the pitch
S. Guzmán
S. Guzmán
M · Deportes
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 70 pass
John Edwin Montaño
John Edwin Montaño
M · Independiente
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 21 pass
Junior Hernández
Junior Hernández
D · Deportes
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
Daniel Cataño
Daniel Cataño
F · Independiente
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 15 pass
Eder Chaux
Eder Chaux
G · Independiente
7.90
· 32 pass
Luis Sánchez
Luis Sánchez
M · Deportes
7.30
3 shots · 26 pass
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Miguel Ortega G 90 5.20 — — — 22 21% — — —
C. Arrieta D 65 5.90 — — — 36 33% — — —
Yordan Osorio D 90 6.60 — — — 62 56% 2 — —
Jan Ángulo D 90 6.70 — — — 52 48% 2 — —
Jherson Mosquera D 65 5.90 — — — 29 26% 1 — —
S. Guzmán M 90 8.70 1 — 1 70 60% — 1 —
Homer Martinez M 65 6.70 — — 3 43 32% 2 1 —
Edwar López M 90 6.90 — — 1 44 42% 2 — —
Luis Sandoval M 90 7.20 — — 3 43 27% — — —
Jorge Hurtado M 73 6.00 — — — 13 8% 1 — —
Adrián Parra F 66 6.70 — — 1 28 23% 1 — —
Ever Valencia F 25 6.90 — 1 2 19 16% — — —
Jader Valencia F 17 6.50 — — 1 6 6% — — —
Junior Hernández D 24 8.20 1 — 1 20 18% — — —
K. Flórez F 25 6.90 — — 2 11 10% 3 — —
Luis Sánchez M 25 7.30 — — 3 26 23% — — —
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Eder Chaux G 90 7.90 — — — 32 14% — — —
J. Mena D 90 6.20 — — — 16 11% 2 — —
Joaquin Varela D 60 5.90 — — — 16 12% — — 1
Luis Escorcia D 90 6.30 — — — 27 19% 1 — —
Esneyder Mena D 90 6.00 — — — 21 12% — — —
John Edwin Montaño M 73 8.30 1 1 2 21 18% — — —
Agustín Martegani M 73 6.90 — — 1 20 17% 3 — —
Didier Moreno M 90 6.90 — — — 33 27% 3 — —
Yony González M 63 6.30 — 1 1 13 10% — — —
Daniel Cataño F 34 7.90 1 — 1 15 14% — — —
Jeison Medina F 90 6.90 — — 2 30 25% — 1 —
Alfonso Simarra D 27 6.30 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Baldomero Perlaza M 17 6.50 — — — 3 — 1 1 —
H. Palacios D 17 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
J. Córdoba F 56 7.20 1 — 3 16 12% 3 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 2–3 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 21% to a draw, and 21% to an Independiente Medellin win.