Liga BetPlay · Apertura - 10 April 05, 2026 02:30 Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague

Deportes Tolima

#2 · 16 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Santa Fe

#4 · 13 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Draw

J. Gonzalez (ast. J. Hernandez) 5'

J. P. Torres Patino (ast. J. Mosquera) 74'

19' (ast. O. Fernandez) H. Rodallega

40' O. Fernandez

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 64% win probability (draw 18%, Santa Fe 17%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 2–2 Santa Fe. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Santa Fe.

Match statistics

13

Total shots

13

5

Shots on target

6

0.71

Actual xG

1.30

4

Saves

3

64%

Possession

36%

5

Corners

4

8

Tackles

8

4

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

⚽J. Gonzalez · ast. J. Hernandez

5'

13'

J. Angulo / M. Puerta ↕

19'

ast. O. Fernandez · H. Rodallega⚽

40'

O. Fernandez⚽

J. P. Torres Patino

44'

D. Pedrozo

50'

↕ C. Arrieta / J. Mosquera

57'

L. Sandoval

58'

65'

L. Palacios

↕ J. Gonzalez / N. Sanchez

73'

73'

N. Bustos / O. Fernandez ↕

73'

M. Lovera / H. Rodallega ↕

⚽J. P. Torres Patino · ast. J. Mosquera

74'

↕ L. Sandoval / C. Trujillo

80'

↕ J. Mera / J. Angulo

81'

82'

A. Zapata / L. Palacios ↕

83'

E. Mosquera / K. D. Toscano Bassa ↕

D. Pedrozo

87'

B. Rovira

90'+1

90'+2

Y. Velasquez

90'+3

Pre-match prediction

64.62%

Deportes

18.35%

X ←

17.03%

Santa

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.35% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Deportes

2.75

0.71

-2.04

Santa

0.99

1.30

+0.31

Santa Fe dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.71). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	20
2	Deportes Tolima	8	16
3	Independiente Medellin	7	15
4	Santa Fe	8	13
5	Millonarios	9	13
6	Atletico Nacional	5	12
7	Internacional de Bogota	9	11
8	Llaneros	9	11
9	Águilas Doradas	6	10
10	Bucaramanga	6	10
11	Once Caldas	7	9
12	Deportivo Cali	7	9
13	Cucuta	8	9
14	Fortaleza FC	9	8
15	Chico	7	8
16	Jaguares	8	7
17	Deportivo Pereira	6	6
18	Junior	6	3
19	Deportivo Pasto	8	2
20	Alianza Valledupar	7	2

Lineups

Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1

1

G 6.60

20 J. Hernández 1 👟 D 6.90

4 D. Pedrozo 87' D 6.30

80 Brayan Rovira D 6.30

5 Juan Mera 81' D 6.70

17 C. Arrieta 57' M 6.60

32 S. Guzmán M 6.30

10 J. Torres 1 ⚽ M 7.60

9 L. Sandoval 80' M 6.30

7 J. González 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.20

24 A. Parra F 7.00

Bench

6 C. Trujillo 10' M 6.30

3 J. Angulo 9' D 6.60

33 J. Mosquera 1 👟 33' D 6.90

31 Yoimar Moreno M

Santa Fe 4-3-2-1

12

G 6.90

4 M. Puerta 13' D 6.30

15 I. Scarpeta D 6.30

2

D 6.50

13 H. Palacios D 6.30

6 K. Toscano 83' M 6.70

16 D. Torres M 6.60

20 Yilmar Velázquez M 6.30

8 O. Fernández 1 ⚽ 1 👟 73' M 7.90

14 L. Palacios 82' M 6.20

11 H. Rodallega 1 ⚽ 73' F 7.60

Bench

10 A. Zapata 8' M 6.60

9 F. Fagúndez F

17 M. Lovera 17' F 6.90

19 N. Bustos 17' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

O. Fernández

M · Santa

7.90

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 19 pass

J. Torres

M · Deportes

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 38 pass

H. Rodallega

F · Santa

7.60

1 ⚽

5 shots · 19 pass

J. González

M · Deportes

7.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

A. Parra

F · Deportes

7.00

2 shots · 13 pass

N. Bustos

F · Santa

6.90

3 shots · 1 pass

Deportes Tolima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	38	28%	—	—	—
J. Hernández	D	90	6.90	—	1	—	32	27%	—	—	—
D. Pedrozo	D	87	6.30	—	—	2	49	42%	2	1	1
Brayan Rovira	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	58	54%	—	1	—
Juan Mera	D	81	6.70	—	—	—	60	56%	—	—	—
C. Arrieta	M	57	6.60	—	—	1	41	37%	2	—	—
S. Guzmán	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	78	68%	1	—	—
J. Torres	M	90	7.60	1	—	3	38	31%	—	1	—
L. Sandoval	M	80	6.30	—	—	1	29	24%	1	1	—
J. González	M	73	7.20	1	—	1	20	15%	1	—	—
A. Parra	F	90	7.00	—	—	2	13	8%	1	—	—
C. Trujillo	M	10	6.30	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—
J. Angulo	D	9	6.60	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
J. Mosquera	D	33	6.90	—	1	—	12	10%	—	—	—

Santa Fe — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	26	9%	—	—	—
M. Puerta	D	13	6.30	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—
I. Scarpeta	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	25	19%	—	—	—
	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	25	20%	—	—	—
H. Palacios	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	—	—	—
K. Toscano	M	83	6.70	—	—	—	16	13%	4	—	—
D. Torres	M	90	6.60	—	—	1	30	21%	2	—	—
Yilmar Velázquez	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	29	21%	—	1	—
O. Fernández	M	73	7.90	1	1	1	19	16%	2	—	—
L. Palacios	M	82	6.20	—	—	2	17	11%	—	1	—
H. Rodallega	F	73	7.60	1	—	5	19	15%	—	—	—
A. Zapata	M	8	6.60	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
M. Lovera	F	17	6.90	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
N. Bustos	F	17	6.90	—	—	3	1	1%	—	—	—