✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Draw
J. Gonzalez
(ast. J. Hernandez)
5'
J. P. Torres Patino
(ast. J. Mosquera)
74'
19'
(ast. O. Fernandez)
H. Rodallega
40'
O. Fernandez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 64% win probability (draw 18%, Santa Fe 17%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 2–2 Santa Fe.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
6
0.71
Actual xG
1.30
4
Saves
3
64%
Possession
36%
5
Corners
4
8
Tackles
8
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽J. Gonzalez
· ast. J. Hernandez
5'
13'
J. Angulo
/
M. Puerta
19'
ast. O. Fernandez ·
H. Rodallega⚽
40'
O. Fernandez⚽
J. P. Torres Patino
44'
D. Pedrozo
50'
C. Arrieta
/ J. Mosquera
57'
L. Sandoval
58'
65'
L. Palacios
J. Gonzalez
/ N. Sanchez
73'
73'
N. Bustos
/
O. Fernandez
73'
M. Lovera
/
H. Rodallega
⚽J. P. Torres Patino
· ast. J. Mosquera
74'
L. Sandoval
/ C. Trujillo
80'
J. Mera
/ J. Angulo
81'
82'
A. Zapata
/
L. Palacios
83'
E. Mosquera
/
K. D. Toscano Bassa
D. Pedrozo
87'
B. Rovira
90'+1
90'+2
Y. Velasquez
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
64.62%
Deportes
18.35%
X ←
17.03%
Santa
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.35%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.75
0.71
-2.04
0.99
1.30
+0.31
Santa Fe dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.71).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
20
Junior Hernández
1 👟
D
Junior Hernández
1 👟
D
4
Daniel Pedrozo
87'
D
Daniel Pedrozo
87'
D
80
Brayan Rovira
D
Brayan Rovira
D
5
J. Mera
81'
D
17
Cristian Arrieta
57'
M
Cristian Arrieta
57'
M
32
Sebastián Guzmán
M
Sebastián Guzmán
M
10
Juan Torres
1 ⚽
M
Juan Torres
1 ⚽
M
9
Luis Sandoval
80'
M
Luis Sandoval
80'
M
7
Jersson González
1 ⚽
73'
M
Jersson González
1 ⚽
73'
M
24
Adrián Parra
F
Adrián Parra
F
Bench
6
Cristian Trujillo
10'
M
Cristian Trujillo
10'
M
3
Jan Ángulo
9'
D
Jan Ángulo
9'
D
33
Jherson Mosquera
1 👟
33'
D
Jherson Mosquera
1 👟
33'
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
12
G
4
Mateo Puerta
13'
D
Mateo Puerta
13'
D
15
Ivan Scarpeta
D
Ivan Scarpeta
D
2
D
13
Helibelton Palacios
D
Helibelton Palacios
D
6
Kilian Toscano
83'
M
Kilian Toscano
83'
M
16
Daniel Torres
M
Daniel Torres
M
20
Yilmar Velázquez
M
Yilmar Velázquez
M
8
Omar Fernández
1 ⚽
1 👟
73'
M
Omar Fernández
1 ⚽
1 👟
73'
M
14
Luis Angel Palacios
82'
M
Luis Angel Palacios
82'
M
11
Hugo Rodallega
1 ⚽
73'
F
Hugo Rodallega
1 ⚽
73'
F
Bench
10
Alexis Zapata
8'
M
Alexis Zapata
8'
M
9
Franco Fagúndez
F
Franco Fagúndez
F
17
Maximiliano Lovera
17'
F
Maximiliano Lovera
17'
F
19
Nahuel Bustos
17'
F
Nahuel Bustos
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Omar Fernández
M · Santa
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 19 pass
Juan Torres
M · Deportes
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 38 pass
Hugo Rodallega
F · Santa
7.60
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 19 pass
Jersson González
M · Deportes
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Adrián Parra
F · Deportes
7.00
2 shots
· 13 pass
Nahuel Bustos
F · Santa
6.90
3 shots
· 1 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| Junior Hernández | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Pedrozo | D | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 42% | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Brayan Rovira | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 54% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Mera | D | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 60 | 56% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arrieta | M | 57 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Sebastián Guzmán | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 78 | 68% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Torres | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 38 | 31% | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Sandoval | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jersson González | M | 73 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristian Trujillo | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Ángulo | D | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | D | 33 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Mateo Puerta | D | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Scarpeta | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Helibelton Palacios | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Kilian Toscano | M | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 4 | — | — |
| Daniel Torres | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Yilmar Velázquez | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| Omar Fernández | M | 73 | 7.90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Luis Angel Palacios | M | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Hugo Rodallega | F | 73 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 5 | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Zapata | M | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Lovera | F | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Bustos | F | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 2–2 Santa Fe.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?
The model assigned 64% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 18% to a draw, and 17% to an Santa Fe win.