Liga BetPlay · Apertura - 10 April 05, 2026 02:30 Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague

Deportes Tolima

#6 · 31 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Santa Fe

#4 · 28 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Draw

J. Gonzalez (ast. J. Hernandez) 5'

J. P. Torres Patino (ast. J. Mosquera) 74'

19' (ast. O. Fernandez) H. Rodallega

40' O. Fernandez

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 64% win probability (draw 18%, Santa Fe 17%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 2–2 Santa Fe. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Santa Fe.

Match statistics

13

Total shots

13

5

Shots on target

6

0.71

Actual xG

1.30

4

Saves

3

64%

Possession

36%

5

Corners

4

8

Tackles

8

4

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

⚽J. Gonzalez · ast. J. Hernandez

5'

13'

J. Angulo / M. Puerta ↕

19'

ast. O. Fernandez · H. Rodallega⚽

40'

O. Fernandez⚽

J. P. Torres Patino

44'

D. Pedrozo

50'

↕ C. Arrieta / J. Mosquera

57'

L. Sandoval

58'

65'

L. Palacios

↕ J. Gonzalez / N. Sanchez

73'

73'

N. Bustos / O. Fernandez ↕

73'

M. Lovera / H. Rodallega ↕

⚽J. P. Torres Patino · ast. J. Mosquera

74'

↕ L. Sandoval / C. Trujillo

80'

↕ J. Mera / J. Angulo

81'

82'

A. Zapata / L. Palacios ↕

83'

E. Mosquera / K. D. Toscano Bassa ↕

D. Pedrozo

87'

B. Rovira

90'+1

90'+2

Y. Velasquez

90'+3

Pre-match prediction

64.62%

Deportes

18.35%

X ←

17.03%

Santa

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.35% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Deportes

2.75

0.71

-2.04

Santa

0.99

1.30

+0.31

Santa Fe dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.71). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	40
2	Junior	19	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	34
4	America de Cali	19	33
5	Once Caldas	19	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	31
7	Santa Fe	19	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	27
10	Millonarios	19	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	23
14	Llaneros	19	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	22
16	Jaguares	19	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	17
18	Chico	19	17
19	Cucuta	19	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	10

Lineups

Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1

1

G 6.60

20 Junior Hernández 1 👟 D 6.90

4 D. Pedrozo 87' D 6.30

80 Brayan Rovira D 6.30

5 Juan Mera 81' D 6.70

17 C. Arrieta 57' M 6.60

32 S. Guzmán M 6.30

10 J. Torres 1 ⚽ M 7.60

9 Luis Sandoval 80' M 6.30

7 J. González 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.20

24 Adrián Parra F 7.00

Bench

6 C. Trujillo 10' M 6.30

3 Jan Ángulo 9' D 6.60

33 Jherson Mosquera 1 👟 33' D 6.90

31 Yoimar Moreno M

Santa Fe 4-3-2-1

12

G 6.90

4 Mateo Puerta 13' D 6.30

15 Ivan Scarpeta D 6.30

2

D 6.50

13 Helibelton Palacios D 6.30

6 Kilian Toscano 83' M 6.70

16 Daniel Torres M 6.60

20 Yilmar Velázquez M 6.30

8 Omar Fernández 1 ⚽ 1 👟 73' M 7.90

14 Luis Angel Palacios 82' M 6.20

11 Hugo Rodallega 1 ⚽ 73' F 7.60

Bench

10 Alexis Zapata 8' M 6.60

9 Franco Fagúndez F

17 Maximiliano Lovera 17' F 6.90

19 N. Bustos 17' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

Omar Fernández

M · Santa

7.90

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 19 pass

J. Torres

M · Deportes

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 38 pass

Hugo Rodallega

F · Santa

7.60

1 ⚽

5 shots · 19 pass

J. González

M · Deportes

7.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

Adrián Parra

F · Deportes

7.00

2 shots · 13 pass

N. Bustos

F · Santa

6.90

3 shots · 1 pass

Deportes Tolima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	38	28%	—	—	—
Junior Hernández	D	90	6.90	—	1	—	32	27%	—	—	—
D. Pedrozo	D	87	6.30	—	—	2	49	42%	2	1	1
Brayan Rovira	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	58	54%	—	1	—
Juan Mera	D	81	6.70	—	—	—	60	56%	—	—	—
C. Arrieta	M	57	6.60	—	—	1	41	37%	2	—	—
S. Guzmán	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	78	68%	1	—	—
J. Torres	M	90	7.60	1	—	3	38	31%	—	1	—
Luis Sandoval	M	80	6.30	—	—	1	29	24%	1	1	—
J. González	M	73	7.20	1	—	1	20	15%	1	—	—
Adrián Parra	F	90	7.00	—	—	2	13	8%	1	—	—
C. Trujillo	M	10	6.30	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—
Jan Ángulo	D	9	6.60	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Jherson Mosquera	D	33	6.90	—	1	—	12	10%	—	—	—

Santa Fe — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	26	9%	—	—	—
Mateo Puerta	D	13	6.30	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—
Ivan Scarpeta	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	25	19%	—	—	—
	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	25	20%	—	—	—
Helibelton Palacios	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	—	—	—
Kilian Toscano	M	83	6.70	—	—	—	16	13%	4	—	—
Daniel Torres	M	90	6.60	—	—	1	30	21%	2	—	—
Yilmar Velázquez	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	29	21%	—	1	—
Omar Fernández	M	73	7.90	1	1	1	19	16%	2	—	—
Luis Angel Palacios	M	82	6.20	—	—	2	17	11%	—	1	—
Hugo Rodallega	F	73	7.60	1	—	5	19	15%	—	—	—
Alexis Zapata	M	8	6.60	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
Maximiliano Lovera	F	17	6.90	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
N. Bustos	F	17	6.90	—	—	3	1	1%	—	—	—