Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 08, 2026 04:00
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 51% win probability (draw 25%, Universitario 22%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 0–0 Universitario. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Universitario.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
0.42
Actual xG
0.50
3
Saves
4
66%
Possession
34%
5
Corners
5
15
Tackles
16
Match Events
J. Mosquera
/ J. Gonzalez
46'
52'
E. Flores
/
J. Rivera
52'
Miguel Silveira
/
M. Perez Guedes
L. Sandoval
/ Y. Osorio
67'
70'
B. Reyna
/
A. Valera
77'
H. Fertoli
/
J. Concha
77'
H. Calcaterra
/
J. Castillo
J. Hernandez
/ N. Sanchez
78'
C. Arrieta
/ E. Lopez
87'
Pre-match prediction
51.4%
Deportes
25.87%
X ←
22.73%
Universitario
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.87%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.90
0.42
-1.48
0.65
0.50
-0.15
xG dominance was balanced (0.42 – 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
C. Arrieta
87'
D
C. Arrieta
87'
D
80
B. Rovira
D
B. Rovira
D
3
J. Angulo
D
J. Angulo
D
20
J. Hernández
78'
M
J. Hernández
78'
M
6
C. Trujillo
M
C. Trujillo
M
32
S. Guzmán
M
S. Guzmán
M
33
J. Mosquera
45'
M
J. Mosquera
45'
M
10
J. Torres
F
J. Torres
F
9
L. Sandoval
67'
F
L. Sandoval
67'
F
24
A. Parra
F
A. Parra
F
Bench
4
D. Pedrozo
D
D. Pedrozo
D
28
E. López
10'
F
E. López
10'
F
14
E. Ricardo
M
7
J. González
45'
F
J. González
45'
F
5
Juan Mera
D
Juan Mera
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
71
Yordan Osorio
23'
D
Yordan Osorio
23'
D
25
G
27
J. Carabalí
D
J. Carabalí
D
5
M. Di Benedetto
D
M. Di Benedetto
D
3
W. Riveros
D
W. Riveros
D
2
C. Fara
D
C. Fara
D
33
César Inga
D
César Inga
D
17
Jairo Concha
77'
M
Jairo Concha
77'
M
6
Jesús Castillo
77'
M
Jesús Castillo
77'
M
16
Martín Pérez Guedes
52'
M
Martín Pérez Guedes
52'
M
11
J. Rivera
52'
F
J. Rivera
52'
F
20
Alex Valera
71'
F
Alex Valera
71'
F
Bench
4
A. Santamaría
D
A. Santamaría
D
77
B. Reyna
19'
F
B. Reyna
19'
F
19
É. Flores
38'
M
É. Flores
38'
M
10
H. Calcaterra
13'
M
H. Calcaterra
13'
M
8
H. Fértoli
13'
M
H. Fértoli
13'
M
23
J. Murrugarra
M
J. Murrugarra
M
99
Miguel Silveira
38'
M
Miguel Silveira
38'
M
90
Sekou Gassama
F
Sekou Gassama
F
Best on the pitch
G · Universitario
7.60
· 22 pass
J. Angulo
D · Deportes
7.50
· 44 pass
Yordan Osorio
D · Deportes
7.50
· 10 pass
S. Guzmán
M · Deportes
7.50
2 shots
· 75 pass
C. Arrieta
D · Deportes
7.30
· 56 pass
B. Rovira
D · Deportes
7.20
· 43 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| C. Arrieta | D | 87 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | 5 | — | — |
| B. Rovira | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 43 | 42% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 44 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hernández | M | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 43 | 37% | — | — | — |
| C. Trujillo | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 75 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Torres | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 40% | — | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | — | — | — |
| A. Parra | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 6 | — | — |
| E. López | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. González | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Yordan Osorio | D | 23 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Universitario — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| J. Carabalí | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Di Benedetto | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Riveros | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| C. Fara | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| César Inga | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Jairo Concha | M | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Castillo | M | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Pérez Guedes | M | 52 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Rivera | F | 52 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Alex Valera | F | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Reyna | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| É. Flores | M | 38 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| H. Calcaterra | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Fértoli | M | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Silveira | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Universitario?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 0–0 Universitario.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Universitario?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 25% to a draw, and 22% to an Universitario win.