Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 08, 2026 04:00
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 51% win probability (draw 25%, Universitario 22%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 0–0 Universitario. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Universitario.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
0.42
Actual xG
0.50
3
Saves
4
66%
Possession
34%
5
Corners
5
15
Tackles
16
Match Events
J. Mosquera
/ J. Gonzalez
46'
52'
E. Flores
/
J. Rivera
52'
Miguel Silveira
/
M. Perez Guedes
L. Sandoval
/ Y. Osorio
67'
70'
B. Reyna
/
A. Valera
77'
H. Fertoli
/
J. Concha
77'
H. Calcaterra
/
J. Castillo
J. Hernandez
/ N. Sanchez
78'
C. Arrieta
/ E. Lopez
87'
Pre-match prediction
51.4%
Deportes
25.87%
X ←
22.73%
Universitario
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.87%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.90
0.42
-1.48
0.65
0.50
-0.15
xG dominance was balanced (0.42 – 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
Cristian Arrieta
87'
D
Cristian Arrieta
87'
D
80
Brayan Rovira
D
Brayan Rovira
D
3
Jan Ángulo
D
Jan Ángulo
D
20
J. Hernández
78'
M
J. Hernández
78'
M
6
Cristian Trujillo
M
Cristian Trujillo
M
32
Sebastián Guzmán
M
Sebastián Guzmán
M
33
Jherson Mosquera
45'
M
Jherson Mosquera
45'
M
10
J. Torres
F
J. Torres
F
9
L. Sandoval
67'
F
L. Sandoval
67'
F
24
Adrián Parra
F
Adrián Parra
F
Bench
4
Daniel Pedrozo
D
Daniel Pedrozo
D
28
Edwar López
10'
F
Edwar López
10'
F
14
E. Ricardo
M
7
Jersson González
45'
F
Jersson González
45'
F
5
J. Mera
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
71
Yordan Osorio
23'
D
Yordan Osorio
23'
D
25
G
27
J. Carabalí
D
J. Carabalí
D
5
Matías Di Benedetto
D
Matías Di Benedetto
D
3
W. Riveros
D
W. Riveros
D
2
Caín Fara
D
Caín Fara
D
33
César Inga
D
César Inga
D
17
J. Concha
77'
M
J. Concha
77'
M
6
Jesús Castillo
77'
M
Jesús Castillo
77'
M
16
Martín Pérez Guedes
52'
M
Martín Pérez Guedes
52'
M
11
José Rivera
52'
F
José Rivera
52'
F
20
A. Valera
71'
F
A. Valera
71'
F
Bench
4
Anderson Santamaría
D
Anderson Santamaría
D
77
Bryan Reyna
19'
F
Bryan Reyna
19'
F
19
Edison Flores
38'
M
Edison Flores
38'
M
8
Héctor Fértoli
13'
M
Héctor Fértoli
13'
M
10
Horacio Calcaterra
13'
M
Horacio Calcaterra
13'
M
23
Jorge Murrugarra
M
Jorge Murrugarra
M
99
Miguel Silveira
38'
M
Miguel Silveira
38'
M
90
Sekou Gassama
F
Sekou Gassama
F
Best on the pitch
G · Universitario
7.60
· 22 pass
Jan Ángulo
D · Deportes
7.50
· 44 pass
Yordan Osorio
D · Deportes
7.50
· 10 pass
Sebastián Guzmán
M · Deportes
7.50
2 shots
· 75 pass
Cristian Arrieta
D · Deportes
7.30
· 56 pass
Brayan Rovira
D · Deportes
7.20
· 43 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Cristian Arrieta | D | 87 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | 5 | — | — |
| Brayan Rovira | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 43 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Jan Ángulo | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 44 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hernández | M | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 43 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Trujillo | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Guzmán | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 75 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Torres | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 40% | — | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 6 | — | — |
| Edwar López | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jersson González | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Yordan Osorio | D | 23 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Universitario — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| J. Carabalí | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Matías Di Benedetto | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Riveros | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Caín Fara | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| César Inga | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Concha | M | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Castillo | M | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Pérez Guedes | M | 52 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| José Rivera | F | 52 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. Valera | F | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan Reyna | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Edison Flores | M | 38 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Héctor Fértoli | M | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Horacio Calcaterra | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Silveira | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Universitario?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 0–0 Universitario.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Universitario?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 25% to a draw, and 22% to an Universitario win.