Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 22, 2026 00:00
Diego Osío
(ast. Guillermo Ortíz)
29'
Juan Castellanos
80'
20'
(ast. Sebastián Villa)
Alex Arce
34'
(ast. Matías Fernández)
Sebastián Villa
60'
Alex Arce
76'
(ast. Matías Fernández)
Alex Arce
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 41% win probability (draw 31%, Deportivo La Guaira 27%). The final result was Deportivo La Guaira 2–4 Independ. Rivadavia. In 1 previous meetings, Deportivo La Guaira have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independ. Rivadavia.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
7
0.81
Actual xG
2.63
3
Saves
3
55%
Possession
45%
7
Corners
3
9
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
20'
ast. Sebastián Villa ·
Alex Arce⚽
⚽Diego Osío
· ast. Guillermo Ortíz
29'
34'
ast. Matías Fernández ·
Sebastián Villa⚽
35'
Yackson Rivas
44'
44'
Luciano Gómez
Martín Gianoli
/ Juan Castellanos
46'
Rafael Arace
/ José Alí Meza
46'
60'
Alex Arce⚽
Carlos Faya
/ Juan Perdomo
60'
José Correa
/ Rommell Ibarra
60'
Guillermo Ortíz
61'
Yackson Rivas
/ Manuel Sulbarán
73'
74'
Rodrigo Atencio
/
Gonzalo Ríos
74'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
/
Luciano Gómez
74'
Kevin Vázquez
/
Tomas Bottari
76'
ast. Matías Fernández ·
Alex Arce⚽
79'
José Florentín
⚽Juan Castellanos
80'
80'
Leonel Bucca
/
José Florentín
86'
Fabrizio Sartori
/
Alex Arce
Juan Perdomo
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
27.82%
Deportivo
31.09%
X
41.1%
Independ. ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independ. Rivadavia)
41.1%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.78
0.81
+0.03
0.98
2.63
+1.65
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (2.63 vs 0.81).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
C. Varela
G
5
M. Gianoli
45'
D
3
Diego Osío
1 ⚽
D
24
G. Ortiz
1 👟
D
20
J. Gutiérrez
M
J. Gutiérrez
M
6
Carlos Faya
60'
M
Carlos Faya
60'
M
27
J. Correa
60'
M
16
L. Peña
M
18
Yackson Rivas
73'
F
77
R. Arace
45'
F
36
F. Londoño
F
Bench
21
Alexis Rodríguez
F
Alexis Rodríguez
F
9
A. Uribe
F
14
C. Da Silva
M
32
Franco Cáceres
M
Franco Cáceres
M
19
Genderson Ascanio
D
Genderson Ascanio
D
10
J. Castellanos
1 ⚽
45'
M
7
J. Meza
45'
F
12
Jorge Sánchez
G
Jorge Sánchez
G
8
J. Perdomo
30'
M
22
M. Sulbarán
17'
M
33
N. Hernández
D
13
R. Ibarra
30'
M
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
3
J. Elordi
D
J. Elordi
D
42
S. Studer
D
S. Studer
D
2
L. Costa
D
L. Costa
D
14
L. Gómez
74'
D
L. Gómez
74'
D
25
J. Florentín
80'
M
J. Florentín
80'
M
5
T. Bottari
74'
M
T. Bottari
74'
M
22
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
10
M. Fernández
2 👟
M
M. Fernández
2 👟
M
11
G. Ríos
74'
M
G. Ríos
74'
M
9
A. Arce
3 ⚽
86'
F
A. Arce
3 ⚽
86'
F
Bench
13
A. Osella
D
A. Osella
D
20
A. Riep
M
A. Riep
M
27
D. Crego
M
D. Crego
M
36
E. Bonifacio
16'
D
E. Bonifacio
16'
D
21
Emmanuel Gómez
G
Emmanuel Gómez
G
43
F. Sartori
12'
F
F. Sartori
12'
F
40
I. Villalba
D
I. Villalba
D
32
K. Vázquez
16'
M
K. Vázquez
16'
M
8
L. Bucca
10'
M
L. Bucca
10'
M
19
R. Atencio
16'
F
R. Atencio
16'
F
34
S. Moreyra
M
S. Moreyra
M
7
V. Ramis
F
V. Ramis
F
Best on the pitch
A. Arce
F · Independ.
10.00
3 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
S. Villa
M · Independ.
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 34 pass
M. Fernández
M · Independ.
8.00
2 👟
4 shots
· 30 pass
J. Castellanos
M · Deportivo
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Diego Osío
D · Deportivo
7.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 34 pass
L. Gómez
D · Independ.
7.20
· 29 pass
Deportivo La Guaira — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Varela | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 31% | — | — | — |
| M. Gianoli | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Diego Osío | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 40 | 34% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Gutiérrez | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Faya | M | 60 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Correa | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| L. Peña | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Yackson Rivas | F | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 17% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Arace | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| F. Londoño | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| J. Castellanos | M | 45 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| J. Meza | F | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Perdomo | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Sulbarán | M | 17 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| R. Ibarra | M | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Elordi | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Studer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Costa | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| L. Gómez | D | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Florentín | M | 80 | 5.60 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Bottari | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Villa | M | 90 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 26% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | 2 | 4 | 30 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Ríos | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Arce | F | 86 | 10.00 | 3 | — | 3 | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bonifacio | D | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Sartori | F | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Vázquez | M | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Bucca | M | 10 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Atencio | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The final score was Deportivo La Guaira 2–4 Independ. Rivadavia.
What did the model predict before Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The model assigned 27% probability to a Deportivo La Guaira win, 31% to a draw, and 41% to an Independ. Rivadavia win.