Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 22, 2026 00:00
Diego Osío
(ast. Guillermo Ortíz)
29'
Juan Castellanos
80'
20'
(ast. Sebastián Villa)
Alex Arce
34'
(ast. Matías Fernández)
Sebastián Villa
60'
Alex Arce
76'
(ast. Matías Fernández)
Alex Arce
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 41% win probability (draw 31%, Deportivo La Guaira 27%). The final result was Deportivo La Guaira 2–4 Independ. Rivadavia. In 1 previous meetings, Deportivo La Guaira have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independ. Rivadavia.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
7
0.81
Actual xG
2.63
3
Saves
3
55%
Possession
45%
7
Corners
3
9
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
20'
ast. Sebastián Villa ·
Alex Arce⚽
⚽Diego Osío
· ast. Guillermo Ortíz
29'
34'
ast. Matías Fernández ·
Sebastián Villa⚽
35'
Yackson Rivas
44'
44'
Luciano Gómez
Martín Gianoli
/ Juan Castellanos
46'
Rafael Arace
/ José Alí Meza
46'
60'
Alex Arce⚽
Carlos Faya
/ Juan Perdomo
60'
José Correa
/ Rommell Ibarra
60'
Guillermo Ortíz
61'
Yackson Rivas
/ Manuel Sulbarán
73'
74'
Rodrigo Atencio
/
Gonzalo Ríos
74'
Ezequiel Bonifacio
/
Luciano Gómez
74'
Kevin Vázquez
/
Tomas Bottari
76'
ast. Matías Fernández ·
Alex Arce⚽
79'
José Florentín
⚽Juan Castellanos
80'
80'
Leonel Bucca
/
José Florentín
86'
Fabrizio Sartori
/
Alex Arce
Juan Perdomo
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
27.82%
Deportivo
31.09%
X
41.1%
Independ. ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independ. Rivadavia)
41.1%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.78
0.81
+0.03
0.98
2.63
+1.65
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (2.63 vs 0.81).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Cristopher Varela
G
5
Martín Gianoli
45'
D
Martín Gianoli
45'
D
3
Diego Osío
1 ⚽
D
24
Guillermo Ortíz
1 👟
D
Guillermo Ortíz
1 👟
D
20
Jorge Gutiérrez
M
Jorge Gutiérrez
M
6
Carlos Faya
60'
M
Carlos Faya
60'
M
27
José Correa
60'
M
José Correa
60'
M
16
Luis Pena
M
Luis Pena
M
18
Yackson Rivas
73'
F
Yackson Rivas
73'
F
77
R. Arace
45'
F
R. Arace
45'
F
36
Flabian Londoño
F
Flabian Londoño
F
Bench
21
Alexis Rodríguez
F
Alexis Rodríguez
F
9
Anthony Uribe
F
Anthony Uribe
F
14
Cesar Da Silva
M
Cesar Da Silva
M
32
Franco Cáceres
M
Franco Cáceres
M
19
Genderson Ascanio
D
Genderson Ascanio
D
12
Jorge Sánchez
G
Jorge Sánchez
G
7
José Alí Meza
45'
F
José Alí Meza
45'
F
10
Juan Castellanos
1 ⚽
45'
M
Juan Castellanos
1 ⚽
45'
M
8
Juan Perdomo
30'
M
Juan Perdomo
30'
M
22
Manuel Sulbarán
17'
M
Manuel Sulbarán
17'
M
33
Nelson Hernández
D
Nelson Hernández
D
13
Rommell Ibarra
30'
M
Rommell Ibarra
30'
M
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
3
Juan Manuel Elordi
D
Juan Manuel Elordi
D
42
Sheyko Studer
D
Sheyko Studer
D
2
Leonard Costa
D
Leonard Costa
D
14
Luciano Gómez
74'
D
Luciano Gómez
74'
D
25
J. Florentín
80'
M
J. Florentín
80'
M
5
Tomas Bottari
74'
M
Tomas Bottari
74'
M
22
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
S. Villa
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
10
M. Fernández
2 👟
M
M. Fernández
2 👟
M
11
Gonzalo Ríos
74'
M
Gonzalo Ríos
74'
M
9
A. Arce
3 ⚽
86'
F
A. Arce
3 ⚽
86'
F
Bench
13
Alejo Osella
D
Alejo Osella
D
20
Alessandro Riep
M
Alessandro Riep
M
27
Diego Crego
M
Diego Crego
M
21
Emmanuel Gómez Riga
G
Emmanuel Gómez Riga
G
36
Ezequiel Bonifacio
16'
D
Ezequiel Bonifacio
16'
D
43
F. Sartori
12'
F
F. Sartori
12'
F
40
Iván Villalba
D
Iván Villalba
D
32
Kevin Vázquez
16'
M
Kevin Vázquez
16'
M
8
Leonel Bucca
10'
M
Leonel Bucca
10'
M
19
R. Atencio
16'
F
R. Atencio
16'
F
34
Stefano Moreyra
M
Stefano Moreyra
M
7
Victorio Ramis
F
Victorio Ramis
F
Best on the pitch
A. Arce
F · Independ.
10.00
3 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
S. Villa
M · Independ.
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 34 pass
M. Fernández
M · Independ.
8.00
2 👟
4 shots
· 30 pass
Juan Castellanos
M · Deportivo
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Diego Osío
D · Deportivo
7.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 34 pass
Luciano Gómez
D · Independ.
7.20
· 29 pass
Deportivo La Guaira — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Varela | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Martín Gianoli | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Diego Osío | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Guillermo Ortíz | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 40 | 34% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jorge Gutiérrez | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Faya | M | 60 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| José Correa | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Luis Pena | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Yackson Rivas | F | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 17% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Arace | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Flabian Londoño | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| José Alí Meza | F | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Castellanos | M | 45 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Juan Perdomo | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| Manuel Sulbarán | M | 17 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Rommell Ibarra | M | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Elordi | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Sheyko Studer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Leonard Costa | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Gómez | D | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Florentín | M | 80 | 5.60 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tomas Bottari | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Villa | M | 90 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 26% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | 2 | 4 | 30 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Ríos | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Arce | F | 86 | 10.00 | 3 | — | 3 | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Ezequiel Bonifacio | D | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Sartori | F | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Vázquez | M | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Bucca | M | 10 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Atencio | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The final score was Deportivo La Guaira 2–4 Independ. Rivadavia.
What did the model predict before Deportivo La Guaira vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The model assigned 27% probability to a Deportivo La Guaira win, 31% to a draw, and 41% to an Independ. Rivadavia win.