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Championship · Regular Season - 7 September 12, 2026 13:30 Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Derby
#23 · 7 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Birmingham
#7 · 20 pts
Bobby Clark (ast. Sammie Szmodics) 40'
42' (ast. Liam Millar) Carlos Vicente
63' (ast. Liam Millar) Paik Seung-Ho
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Birmingham a 36% win probability (draw 32%, Derby 30%). The final result was Derby 1–2 Birmingham. In 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Birmingham.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
18
4
Shots on target
9
6
Saves
1
59%
Possession
41%
10
Corners
4
15
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Mohammed Fuseini
19'
21'
Alex Cochrane
⚽Bobby Clark · ast. Sammie Szmodics
40'
42'
ast. Liam Millar · Carlos Vicente⚽
44'
August Priske
↕ Henrik Wendel Meister / Oscar Fraulo
54'
60'
Paik Seung-Ho / Jhon Elmer Solís Romero ↕
63'
ast. Liam Millar · Paik Seung-Ho⚽
73'
Luis Vasquez / August Priske ↕
73'
Ethan Laird / Liam Millar ↕
↕ D. Ozoh / Corey Blackett-Taylor
85'
↕ Eiran Joe Cashin / Ryan Hedges
85'
90'+4
Carlos Vicente
↕ Charlie Taylor / Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
90'+5
90'+6
Kristoffer Lund / Jay Stansfield ↕
90'+6
Dael Fry / Carlos Vicente ↕
Pre-match prediction
30.4%
Derby
32.66%
X
36.95%
Birmingham ←
we assigned to the actual result (Birmingham) 36.95% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.01
—
—
Birmingham
1.30
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
1 J. Widell Zetterström J. Widell Zetterström G 6.64
18 C. Taylor C. Taylor D 6.16
44 E. Cashin E. Cashin 85' D 7.07
6 S. Langås S. Langås D 6.55
23 J. Ward J. Ward D 7.16
4 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 85' M 6.29
8 B. Clark B. Clark 1 ⚽ M 7.52
19 H. Meister H. Meister 54' M 5.81
11 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics 1 👟 M 6.74
16 M. Fuseini M. Fuseini M 6.08
9 C. Morris C. Morris F 6.18
Bench
20 A. Mowatt A. Mowatt M 0.00
33 C. Blackett-Taylor C. Blackett-Taylor 5' F 6.40
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 0.00
31 J. Vickers J. Vickers G 0.00
15 L. Salvesen L. Salvesen 1' F 0.00
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston D 0.00
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 36' M 6.10
26 R. Hedges R. Hedges 5' M 6.40
24 R. Nyambe R. Nyambe D 0.00
Birmingham Birmingham 4-2-3-1
1 J. Beadle J. Beadle G 6.50
20 A. Cochrane A. Cochrane D 6.21
4 C. Klarer C. Klarer D 6.68
5 P. Neumann P. Neumann D 6.31
26 B. Osayi-Samuel B. Osayi-Samuel D 6.62
14 J. Solis J. Solis 60' M 6.34
24 T. Iwata T. Iwata M 6.44
17 L. Millar L. Millar 2 👟 73' M 8.28
28 J. Stansfield J. Stansfield M 6.40
7 Carlos Vicente Carlos Vicente 1 ⚽ M 6.92
9 A. Priske A. Priske 73' F 6.09
Bench
23 D. Fry D. Fry 1' D 0.00
2 E. Laird E. Laird 17' D 6.75
27 K. Fujimoto K. Fujimoto M 0.00
25 K. Lund K. Lund 1' D 0.00
3 L. Buchanan L. Buchanan D 0.00
32 L. Vázquez L. Vázquez 17' F 5.97
33 M. Ducksch M. Ducksch F 0.00
21 R. Allsop R. Allsop G 0.00
8 Seung Ho Paik Seung Ho Paik 1 ⚽ 30' M 7.54
Best on the pitch
L. Millar
L. Millar
M · Birmingham
8.28
2 👟
· 15 pass
Seung Ho Paik
Seung Ho Paik
M · Birmingham
7.54
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
B. Clark
B. Clark
M · Derby
7.52
1 ⚽
3 shots · 44 pass
J. Ward
J. Ward
D · Derby
7.16
1 shots · 46 pass
E. Cashin
E. Cashin
D · Derby
7.07
2 shots · 48 pass
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente
M · Birmingham
6.92
1 ⚽
5 shots · 25 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Widell Zetterström G 90 6.64 — — 0 26 14% 0 — —
C. Taylor D 95 6.16 — — 0 29 22% 1 — —
E. Cashin D 85 7.07 — — 2 48 39% 1 — —
S. Langås D 90 6.55 — — 0 44 41% 1 — —
J. Ward D 90 7.16 — — 1 46 38% 1 — —
D. Ozoh M 85 6.29 — — 0 22 21% 2 — —
B. Clark M 90 7.52 1 — 3 44 33% 4 — —
H. Meister M 54 5.81 — — 0 11 5% 0 — —
S. Szmodics M 90 6.74 — 1 6 37 22% 3 — —
M. Fuseini M 90 6.08 — — 1 19 17% 0 1 —
C. Morris F 90 6.18 — — 2 27 15% 0 — —
C. Blackett-Taylor F 5 6.40 — — 1 5 4% 1 — —
L. Salvesen F 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
O. Fraulo M 36 6.10 — — 2 10 8% 0 — —
R. Hedges M 5 6.40 — — 0 15 11% 1 — —
Birmingham Birmingham — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Beadle G 90 6.50 — — 0 27 9% 0 — —
A. Cochrane D 90 6.21 — — 1 26 17% 1 1 —
C. Klarer D 90 6.68 — — 1 26 19% 0 — —
P. Neumann D 90 6.31 — — 0 17 11% 2 — —
B. Osayi-Samuel D 90 6.62 — — 0 31 25% 5 — —
J. Solis M 60 6.34 — — 0 17 14% 1 — —
T. Iwata M 90 6.44 — — 1 45 32% 1 — —
L. Millar M 73 8.28 — 2 0 15 11% 1 — —
J. Stansfield M 96 6.40 — — 4 9 4% 0 — —
Carlos Vicente M 96 6.92 1 — 5 25 15% 2 1 —
A. Priske F 73 6.09 — — 3 10 6% 0 1 —
D. Fry D 1 0.00 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
E. Laird D 17 6.75 — — 1 9 5% 2 — —
K. Lund D 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
L. Vázquez F 17 5.97 — — 1 4 3% 0 — —
Seung Ho Paik M 30 7.54 1 — 1 14 12% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Birmingham?
The final score was Derby 1–2 Birmingham.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Birmingham?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Derby win, 32% to a draw, and 36% to an Birmingham win.