Derby 2–2 Cardiff — pre-match prediction — Championship — August 22, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 2 August 22, 2026 16:00 Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby

#23 · 7 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Cardiff

#16 · 14 pts

C. Morris (ast. B. Clark) 26'

B. Clark 49'

19' (ast. R. Kpakio) C. Ashford

39' (ast. R. Colwill) Y. Salech

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Cardiff 33%). The final result was Derby 2–2 Cardiff.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.31

Actual xG

1.74

Saves

44%

Possession

56%

Corners

Tackles

Match Events

C. Blackett-Taylor

19'

ast. R. Kpakio · C. Ashford⚽

⚽C. Morris · ast. B. Clark

26'

39'

ast. R. Colwill · Y. Salech⚽

⚽B. Clark

49'

53'

A. Robertson

O. Fraulo

55'

59'

D. Turnbull / R. Colwill ↕

59'

C. Willock / C. Ashford ↕

L. Travis

60'

↕ O. Fraulo / R. Hedges

64'

↕ C. Blackett-Taylor / R. Brewster

65'

71'

J. Colwill / J. Moylan ↕

71'

I. Davies / O. Tanner ↕

M. Johnston

80'

D. Sanderson

85'

↕ M. Johnston / R. Nyambe

88'

↕ C. Morris / L. Salvesen

88'

Pre-match prediction

34.01%

Derby

32.26%

X ←

33.72%

Cardiff

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 32.26% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Derby

1.23

1.31

+0.08

Cardiff

1.94

1.74

-0.2

Cardiff dominated by xG (1.74 vs 1.31). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Derby 4-2-3-1

J. Widell Zetterström 46' G 7.90

C. Taylor 46' D 7.00

S. Langås 46' D 6.30

D. Sanderson 46' D 6.30

M. Johnston 46' D 6.50

A. Mowatt 46' M 6.90

L. Travis 46' M 6.30

C. Blackett-Taylor 46' M 7.20

O. Fraulo 46' M 7.00

B. Clark 1 ⚽ 1 👟 46' M 6.20

C. Morris 1 ⚽ 46' F 7.30

Bench

C. Forsyth D

F. Bilbija M

J. Vickers G

J. Ward M

L. Salvesen F

Owen Eames M

R. Brewster F

R. Hedges M

R. Nyambe D

Cardiff 4-2-3-1

N. Trott 46' G 7.60

C. Scanlon 46' D 6.60

J. Bagan 46' D 8.30

P. Ng 46' D 6.60

R. Kpakio 1 👟 46' D 6.50

A. Robertson 46' M 6.90

J. Moylan 46' M 6.50

Cian Ashford 1 ⚽ 46' M 7.50

R. Colwill 1 👟 46' M 7.30

O. Tanner 46' M 6.60

Y. Salech 1 ⚽ 46' F 6.90

Bench

C. Robinson F

C. Willock M

D. Turnbull M

H. Tyrer G

I. Davies F

J. Colwill M

M. Turner G

N. Anyadike D

R. Tankiewicz M

Best on the pitch

J. Bagan

D · Cardiff

8.30

· 41 pass

J. Widell Zetterström

G · Derby

7.90

· 16 pass

N. Trott

G · Cardiff

7.60

· 24 pass

Cian Ashford

M · Cardiff

7.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 7 pass

R. Colwill

M · Cardiff

7.30

1 👟

1 shots · 20 pass

C. Morris

F · Derby

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 15 pass

Derby — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Widell Zetterström	G	46	7.90	—	—	—	16	9%	—	—	—
C. Taylor	D	46	7.00	—	—	—	20	15%	—	—	—
S. Langås	D	46	6.30	—	—	—	9	8%	1	—	—
D. Sanderson	D	46	6.30	—	—	—	13	11%	3	—	—
M. Johnston	D	46	6.50	—	—	—	6	6%	2	—	—
A. Mowatt	M	46	6.90	—	—	—	23	22%	—	—	—
L. Travis	M	46	6.30	—	—	1	16	15%	—	—	—
C. Blackett-Taylor	M	46	7.20	—	—	3	10	10%	—	—	—
O. Fraulo	M	46	7.00	—	—	2	9	7%	—	—	—
B. Clark	M	46	6.20	1	1	2	13	11%	—	—	—
C. Morris	F	46	7.30	1	—	1	15	10%	1	—	—

Cardiff — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Trott	G	46	7.60	—	—	—	24	14%	—	—	—
C. Scanlon	D	46	6.60	—	—	—	19	17%	—	—	—
J. Bagan	D	46	8.30	—	—	—	41	35%	2	—	—
P. Ng	D	46	6.60	—	—	—	24	21%	1	—	—
R. Kpakio	D	46	6.50	—	1	1	21	17%	3	—	—
A. Robertson	M	46	6.90	—	—	—	25	21%	1	—	—
J. Moylan	M	46	6.50	—	—	—	8	5%	1	—	—
Cian Ashford	M	46	7.50	1	—	1	7	6%	—	—	—
R. Colwill	M	46	7.30	—	1	1	20	18%	2	—	—
O. Tanner	M	46	6.60	—	—	2	8	8%	1	—	—
Y. Salech	F	46	6.90	1	—	3	5	2%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Derby vs Cardiff?

The final score was Derby 2–2 Cardiff.

What did the model predict before Derby vs Cardiff?

The model assigned 34% probability to a Derby win, 32% to a draw, and 33% to an Cardiff win.