S. Szmodics
45'+1
3'
(ast. I. Varfolomeev)
B. House
23'
(ast. F. Draper)
D. Jefferies
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Lincoln 28%). The final result was Derby 1–2 Lincoln.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
4
2
Saves
2
72%
Possession
28%
3
Corners
6
19
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
3'
ast. I. Varfolomeev ·
B. House⚽
23'
ast. F. Draper ·
D. Jefferies⚽
32'
A. Reach
L. Travis
35'
⚽S. Szmodics
45'+1
M. Clarke
/ D. Sanderson
46'
48'
B. House
O. Fraulo
/ F. Bilbija
63'
C. Blackett-Taylor
/ M. Johnston
63'
C. Taylor
/ C. Forsyth
63'
67'
R. Towler
/
D. Jefferies
79'
T. Olaofe
/
F. Draper
79'
R. Hackett-Fairchild
/
R. Street
79'
M. Melia
/
B. House
S. Szmodics
/ L. Salvesen
80'
88'
C. Elder
/
A. Reach
Pre-match prediction
41.86%
Derby
29.81%
X
28.33%
Lincoln ←
we assigned to the actual result (Lincoln)
28.33%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.57
—
—
0.83
—
—
Lineups
1
J. Widell Zetterström
G
J. Widell Zetterström
G
18
C. Taylor
63'
D
C. Taylor
63'
D
5
Matt Clarke
45'
D
Matt Clarke
45'
D
6
S. Langås
D
S. Langås
D
23
J. Ward
D
J. Ward
D
27
L. Travis
M
L. Travis
M
29
O. Fraulo
63'
M
O. Fraulo
63'
M
33
C. Blackett-Taylor
63'
M
C. Blackett-Taylor
63'
M
8
B. Clark
M
B. Clark
M
11
S. Szmodics
1 ⚽
80'
M
S. Szmodics
1 ⚽
80'
M
9
C. Morris
F
C. Morris
F
Bench
3
C. Forsyth
28'
D
C. Forsyth
28'
D
40
Cruz Allen
M
Cruz Allen
M
28
D. Sanderson
46'
D
D. Sanderson
46'
D
13
F. Bilbija
28'
M
F. Bilbija
28'
M
31
J. Vickers
G
J. Vickers
G
15
L. Salvesen
11'
F
L. Salvesen
11'
F
22
M. Johnston
28'
D
M. Johnston
28'
D
37
Owen Eames
M
Owen Eames
M
1
G. Wickens
G
G. Wickens
G
3
A. Reach
88'
D
A. Reach
88'
D
25
D. Elerewe
D
D. Elerewe
D
22
Tom Hamer
D
Tom Hamer
D
2
Tendayi Darikwa
D
Tendayi Darikwa
D
18
B. House
1 ⚽
79'
M
B. House
1 ⚽
79'
M
24
I. Varfolomeev
1 👟
M
I. Varfolomeev
1 👟
M
14
C. McGrandles
M
C. McGrandles
M
16
D. Jefferies
1 ⚽
67'
M
D. Jefferies
1 ⚽
67'
M
34
F. Draper
1 👟
79'
F
F. Draper
1 👟
79'
F
17
R. Street
79'
F
R. Street
79'
F
Bench
4
A. Coubiș
D
A. Coubiș
D
20
C. Elder
3'
D
C. Elder
3'
D
19
I. Olaofe
12'
F
I. Olaofe
12'
F
21
James Pardington
G
James Pardington
G
46
J. Gauci
G
J. Gauci
G
23
J. Honohan
D
J. Honohan
D
10
M. Melia
12'
F
M. Melia
12'
F
7
R. Hackett
12'
M
R. Hackett
12'
M
6
R. Towler
24'
D
R. Towler
24'
D
Best on the pitch
B. House
M · Lincoln
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 33 pass
D. Jefferies
M · Lincoln
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 10 pass
J. Widell Zetterström
G · Derby
7.30
· 35 pass
L. Travis
M · Derby
7.30
· 86 pass
I. Varfolomeev
M · Lincoln
7.30
1 👟
· 22 pass
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 91 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 26% | — | — | — |
| C. Taylor | D | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Matt Clarke | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 53 | 50% | — | — | — |
| S. Langås | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Ward | D | 91 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 29% | — | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 91 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 86 | 80% | 4 | 1 | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 80 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 33 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Forsyth | D | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 46 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| F. Bilbija | M | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Salvesen | F | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
Lincoln — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Wickens | G | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Reach | D | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Elerewe | D | 91 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Tom Hamer | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Tendayi Darikwa | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| B. House | M | 79 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 15 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| I. Varfolomeev | M | 91 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| C. McGrandles | M | 91 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D. Jefferies | M | 67 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Draper | F | 79 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Street | F | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Elder | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
| I. Olaofe | F | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| M. Melia | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Hackett | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| R. Towler | D | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Lincoln?
The final score was Derby 1–2 Lincoln.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Lincoln?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Derby win, 29% to a draw, and 28% to an Lincoln win.