Derby - Lincoln
⚡ Pre-match analysis
34.6%
Win
Derby
32.48%
Draw
32.92%
Win
Lincoln
1.14
0.91
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.87%)
1X2 Result
1
35%
X
32%
2
33%
Double Chance
1X
67%
X2
65%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Derby a 34% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Lincoln. Expected goals are 1.1 for Derby and 0.9 for Lincoln (total 2.0), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.87% probability.
Season Stats
0W
1D
1L
2W
0D
1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.7
1.5
Conceded
1.0
1.5
Shots OT
5.0
2.5
Corners
5.0
45%
Poss.
47%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
67%
50%
O 2.5
67%
100%
BTTS
67%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 3 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Derby
Lincoln →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Derby
Attack
35
Defence
55
Form
49
Lincoln
Attack
31
Defence
58
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Derby vs Lincoln?
The model gives Derby a 34% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an Lincoln win.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Lincoln?
Expected goals: Derby 1.1, Lincoln 0.9 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Derby vs Lincoln?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.87%.