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Derby - Lincoln

EFL Cup August 08, 2026 16:00
vs
⚡ Pre-match analysis
34.6%
Win
Derby
32.48%
Draw
32.92%
Win
Lincoln
1.14
Expected xG
0.91

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.87%)
1X2 Result
1 35%
X 32%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 65%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Derby a 34% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Lincoln. Expected goals are 1.1 for Derby and 0.9 for Lincoln (total 2.0), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.87% probability.

Season Stats

Derby
0W 1D 1L
Lincoln
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.7
1.5
Conceded
1.0
1.5
Shots OT
5.0
2.5
Corners
5.0
45%
Poss.
47%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
67%
50%
O 2.5
67%
100%
BTTS
67%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
Based on the last 3 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Derby Lincoln →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.9% 11.7% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
1 14.7% 13.4% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.4% 7.6% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2%
3 3.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

L Burnley 2–1
D West Brom 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
L Chelsea 1–2
W Burton Albion 0–1
W Harrogate Town 1–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 39%

Playing profile

Derby Derby
Attack
35
Defence
55
Form
49
Lincoln Lincoln
Attack
31
Defence
58
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Derby vs Lincoln?
The model gives Derby a 34% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 32% for an Lincoln win.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Lincoln?
Expected goals: Derby 1.1, Lincoln 0.9 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Derby vs Lincoln?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.87%.