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Championship · Regular Season - 11 October 17, 2026 16:00 Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Derby
#23 · 7 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Stoke City
#9 · 20 pts
49' (ast. Ethan Galbraith) Luke Graham
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Stoke City a 43% win probability (draw 28%, Derby 28%). The final result was Derby 0–1 Stoke City. In 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
12
3
Shots on target
4
1.07
Actual xG
0.62
3
Saves
3
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
4
21
Tackles
26
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
38'
Luca Bombino / Eric Junior Bocat ↕
45'
George Hirst / Jack Mcglynn ↕
49'
ast. Ethan Galbraith · Luke Graham⚽
↕ Lewis Travis / Rhian Brewster
52'
68'
Maksym Taloverov / Bosun Lawal ↕
68'
Róbert Boženík / Lamine Cissé ↕
↕ Mohammed Fuseini / Henrik Wendel Meister
73'
D. Ozoh
76'
↕ Bobby Clark / Corey Blackett-Taylor
87'
↕ Ryan Hedges / Filip Bilbija
87'
↕ Sammie Szmodics / Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
87'
87'
Junior Tchamadeu / Justin Devenny ↕
Pre-match prediction
28.38%
Derby
28.42%
X
43.2%
Stoke ←
we assigned to the actual result (Stoke City) 43.2% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.04
1.07
+0.03
Stoke
1.64
0.62
-1.02
Derby dominated by xG (1.07 vs 0.62). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
31 J. Vickers J. Vickers G 6.80
26 R. Hedges R. Hedges 87' D 6.44
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 7.23
24 R. Nyambe R. Nyambe D 6.56
23 J. Ward J. Ward D 7.61
27 L. Travis L. Travis 52' M 6.58
4 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh M 6.69
11 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics 87' M 6.35
8 B. Clark B. Clark 87' M 6.49
16 M. Fuseini M. Fuseini 73' M 6.39
9 C. Morris C. Morris F 7.15
Bench
33 C. Blackett-Taylor C. Blackett-Taylor 3' F 5.88
13 F. Bilbija F. Bilbija 3' M 6.35
19 H. Meister H. Meister 17' F 6.08
43 I. Gordon I. Gordon D 0.00
15 L. Salvesen L. Salvesen 3' F 6.17
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo M 0.00
42 Raymond Offor Raymond Offor D 0.00
10 R. Brewster R. Brewster 38' F 6.46
12 R. O'Donnell R. O'Donnell G 0.00
Stoke City Stoke City 3-4-3
1 V. Johansson V. Johansson G 6.90
5 L. Graham L. Graham 1 ⚽ D 8.25
16 B. Wilmot B. Wilmot D 6.90
18 B. Lawal B. Lawal 68' D 7.19
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat 38' M 6.76
8 E. Galbraith E. Galbraith 1 👟 M 7.35
27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M 6.72
2 B. Johnson B. Johnson M 7.06
13 J. Devenny J. Devenny 87' F 6.32
11 L. Cissé L. Cissé 68' F 6.33
7 J. McGlynn J. McGlynn 45' F 6.98
Bench
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho M 0.00
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M 0.00
15 G. Hirst G. Hirst 45' F 6.68
24 J. Griffiths J. Griffiths G 0.00
22 J. Tchamadeu J. Tchamadeu 3' D 6.59
21 L. Bombino L. Bombino 52' D 7.52
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef F 0.00
40 M. Talovierov M. Talovierov 22' D 7.11
9 R. Boženík R. Boženík 22' F 6.39
Best on the pitch
L. Graham
L. Graham
D · Stoke
8.25
1 ⚽
1 shots · 33 pass
J. Ward
J. Ward
D · Derby
7.61
· 48 pass
L. Bombino
L. Bombino
D · Stoke
7.52
· 17 pass
E. Galbraith
E. Galbraith
M · Stoke
7.35
1 👟
2 shots · 45 pass
D. Sanderson
D. Sanderson
D · Derby
7.23
· 47 pass
B. Lawal
B. Lawal
D · Stoke
7.19
· 28 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Vickers G 90 6.80 — — 0 29 19% 0 — —
R. Hedges D 87 6.44 — — 0 40 29% 2 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 7.23 — — 0 47 44% 2 — —
R. Nyambe D 90 6.56 — — 0 41 35% 0 — —
J. Ward D 90 7.61 — — 0 48 41% 3 — —
L. Travis M 52 6.58 — — 0 33 27% 1 — —
D. Ozoh M 90 6.69 — — 3 23 23% 5 1 —
S. Szmodics M 87 6.35 — — 3 21 14% 1 — —
B. Clark M 87 6.49 — — 3 32 27% 3 — —
M. Fuseini M 73 6.39 — — 2 6 3% 1 — —
C. Morris F 90 7.15 — — 2 24 15% 1 — —
C. Blackett-Taylor F 3 5.88 — — 0 4 4% 0 — —
F. Bilbija M 3 6.35 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
H. Meister F 17 6.08 — — 1 2 1% 0 — —
L. Salvesen F 3 6.17 — — 1 0 0% 1 — —
R. Brewster F 38 6.46 — — 2 13 8% 1 — —
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Johansson G 90 6.90 — — 0 26 6% 0 — —
L. Graham D 90 8.25 1 — 1 33 30% 2 — —
B. Wilmot D 90 6.90 — — 1 32 24% 1 — —
B. Lawal D 68 7.19 — — 0 28 23% 2 — —
E. Bocat M 38 6.76 — — 1 23 18% 0 — —
E. Galbraith M 90 7.35 — 1 2 45 38% 2 — —
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M 90 6.72 — — 1 32 24% 5 — —
B. Johnson M 90 7.06 — — 1 18 16% 1 — —
J. Devenny F 87 6.32 — — 1 27 20% 1 — —
L. Cissé F 68 6.33 — — 0 12 9% 1 — —
J. McGlynn F 45 6.98 — — 2 16 14% 1 — —
G. Hirst F 45 6.68 — — 2 8 4% 2 — —
J. Tchamadeu D 3 6.59 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
L. Bombino D 52 7.52 — — 0 17 13% 8 — —
M. Talovierov D 22 7.11 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
R. Boženík F 22 6.39 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Stoke City?
The final score was Derby 0–1 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 28% probability to a Derby win, 28% to a draw, and 43% to an Stoke City win.