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Championship · Regular Season - 9 October 10, 2026 16:00 Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Derby
#23 · 7 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Wrexham
#17 · 14 pts
Sammie Szmodics (ast. Mohammed Fuseini) 9'
88' (ast. Kieffer Moore) Oliver Rathbone
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Wrexham a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Derby 32%). The final result was Derby 1–1 Wrexham. In 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Wrexham.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
13
4
Shots on target
3
0.56
Actual xG
1.32
2
Saves
3
45%
Possession
55%
1
Corners
9
21
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Sondre Langas
5'
⚽Sammie Szmodics · ast. Mohammed Fuseini
9'
15'
Oliver Rathbone / Josh Windass ↕
Ryan Hedges
52'
64'
Sam Smith / Lewis O'Brien ↕
64'
Danny Imray / Issa Kabore ↕
71'
Oliver Rathbone
↕ Mohammed Fuseini / Henrik Wendel Meister
72'
↕ Sammie Szmodics / Rhian Brewster
72'
Alex Mowatt
74'
↕ Bobby Clark / Oscar Fraulo
84'
↕ Carlton Morris / Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
84'
85'
George Dobson / Zak Vyner ↕
85'
Ryan·Longman / Jacques Ekomié ↕
88'
ast. Kieffer Moore · Oliver Rathbone⚽
90'+1
Kieffer Moore
Pre-match prediction
32.53%
Derby
32.94%
X ←
34.53%
Wrexham
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 32.94% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
0.97
0.56
-0.41
Wrexham
1.03
1.32
+0.29
Wrexham dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.56). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
31 J. Vickers J. Vickers G 6.10
26 R. Hedges R. Hedges D 6.46
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 6.96
6 S. Langås S. Langås D 6.85
23 J. Ward J. Ward D 6.68
4 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh M 6.53
20 A. Mowatt A. Mowatt M 6.13
8 B. Clark B. Clark 84' M 6.81
11 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.94
16 M. Fuseini M. Fuseini 1 👟 72' M 7.39
9 C. Morris C. Morris 84' F 6.30
Bench
33 C. Blackett-Taylor C. Blackett-Taylor F 0.00
13 F. Bilbija F. Bilbija M 0.00
19 H. Meister H. Meister 18' F 6.18
15 L. Salvesen L. Salvesen 6' F 6.05
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 0.00
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 6' M 6.44
10 R. Brewster R. Brewster 18' F 6.73
24 R. Nyambe R. Nyambe D 0.00
12 R. O'Donnell R. O'Donnell G 0.00
Wrexham Wrexham 3-4-2-1
22 A. Patterson A. Patterson G 6.61
6 J. Worrall J. Worrall D 6.37
5 D. Hyam D. Hyam D 6.84
26 Z. Vyner Z. Vyner 85' D 6.29
3 J. Ekomié J. Ekomié 85' M 6.67
27 L. O'Brien L. O'Brien 64' M 6.43
8 B. Whiteman B. Whiteman M 6.11
12 I. Kaboré I. Kaboré 64' M 6.30
17 C. O'Hare C. O'Hare M 6.22
10 J. Windass J. Windass 15' M 5.86
19 K. Moore K. Moore 1 👟 F 6.82
Bench
34 A. James A. James D 0.00
11 B. Cadamarteri B. Cadamarteri F 0.00
30 Daniel Edward Peter Imray Daniel Edward Peter Imray 26' D 5.96
21 D. Ward D. Ward G 0.00
15 G. Dobson G. Dobson 5' M 6.58
20 O. Rathbone O. Rathbone 1 ⚽ 75' M 7.87
47 R. Longman R. Longman 5' M 6.24
28 S. Smith S. Smith 26' F 6.51
Best on the pitch
S. Szmodics
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.94
1 ⚽
4 shots · 18 pass
O. Rathbone
O. Rathbone
M · Wrexham
7.87
1 ⚽
1 shots · 30 pass
M. Fuseini
M. Fuseini
M · Derby
7.39
1 👟
2 shots · 19 pass
D. Sanderson
D. Sanderson
D · Derby
6.96
· 39 pass
S. Langås
S. Langås
D · Derby
6.85
· 37 pass
D. Hyam
D. Hyam
D · Wrexham
6.84
· 57 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Vickers G 90 6.10 — — 0 33 18% 0 — —
R. Hedges D 90 6.46 — — 0 44 31% 4 1 —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.96 — — 0 39 36% 1 — —
S. Langås D 90 6.85 — — 0 37 32% 3 1 —
J. Ward D 90 6.68 — — 0 44 32% 3 — —
D. Ozoh M 90 6.53 — — 0 41 36% 5 — —
A. Mowatt M 90 6.13 — — 0 50 37% 3 1 —
B. Clark M 84 6.81 — — 2 28 24% 0 — —
S. Szmodics M 72 7.94 1 — 4 18 13% 1 — —
M. Fuseini M 72 7.39 — 1 2 19 15% 0 — —
C. Morris F 84 6.30 — — 2 27 17% 1 — —
H. Meister F 18 6.18 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
L. Salvesen F 6 6.05 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
O. Fraulo M 6 6.44 — — 0 3 1% 0 — —
R. Brewster F 18 6.73 — — 0 7 6% 0 — —
Wrexham Wrexham — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Patterson G 90 6.61 — — 0 21 14% 0 — —
J. Worrall D 90 6.37 — — 2 61 51% 1 — —
D. Hyam D 90 6.84 — — 0 57 49% 2 — —
Z. Vyner D 85 6.29 — — 0 49 40% 0 — —
J. Ekomié M 85 6.67 — — 2 29 27% 0 — —
L. O'Brien M 64 6.43 — — 0 44 38% 4 — —
B. Whiteman M 90 6.11 — — 1 49 39% 2 — —
I. Kaboré M 64 6.30 — — 1 27 23% 1 — —
C. O'Hare M 90 6.22 — — 3 36 25% 1 — —
J. Windass M 15 5.86 — — 0 5 2% 0 — —
K. Moore F 90 6.82 — 1 2 34 21% 1 1 —
Daniel Edward Peter Imray D 26 5.96 — — 1 14 12% 0 — —
G. Dobson M 5 6.58 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
O. Rathbone M 75 7.87 1 — 1 30 24% 3 1 —
R. Longman M 5 6.24 — — 0 6 5% 0 — —
S. Smith F 26 6.51 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Wrexham?
The final score was Derby 1–1 Wrexham.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Wrexham?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Derby win, 32% to a draw, and 34% to an Wrexham win.