Derry City - HNK Rijeka
Conference League
July 30, 2026 19:30
⚡ Pre-match analysis
27.81%
Win
Derry City
26.91%
Draw
45.27%
Win
HNK Rijeka
0.93
1.68
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(11.58%)
1X2 Result
1
28%
X
27%
2
45%
Double Chance
1X
55%
X2
72%
12
73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives HNK Rijeka a 45% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Derry City. Expected goals are 0.9 for Derry City and 1.7 for HNK Rijeka (total 2.6), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.58% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Derry City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for HNK Rijeka.
Season Stats
0W
0D
1L
5W
4D
2L
Averages per game
0.0
Goals
1.1
1.0
Conceded
0.6
—
Shots OT
4.3
—
Corners
4.1
—
Poss.
49%
Percentages
0%
O 1.5
45%
0%
O 2.5
27%
0%
BTTS
36%
0%
Clean Sht
55%
ℹ
Based on the last 11 matches in Conference League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Derry City
HNK Rijeka →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Derry City
Attack
37
Defence
58
Form
51
HNK Rijeka
Attack
47
Defence
93
Form
79
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
23 Jul 2026
0–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?
The model gives Derry City a 27% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 45% for an HNK Rijeka win.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?
Expected goals: Derry City 0.9, HNK Rijeka 1.7 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Derry City vs HNK Rijeka?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.58%.