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League One · Regular Season - 10 October 10, 2026 16:00 Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster
Doncaster
#18 · 12 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Burton Albion
#12 · 17 pts
Leon Ayinde (ast. Alfie May) 45'+2
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Doncaster a 40% win probability (draw 31%, Burton Albion 28%). The final result was Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion. In 2 previous meetings, Doncaster have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Burton Albion.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
21
1
Shots on target
5
0.66
Actual xG
1.12
5
Saves
0
43%
Possession
57%
3
Corners
12
13
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
↕ Jordan Thomas / T. Nixon
12'
39'
Matthew Dennis
Owen Bailey
41'
⚽Leon Ayinde · ast. Alfie May
45'+2
45'
Toby Sibbick / Will Collar ↕
Robbie Gotts
70'
71'
Gbemi Arubi / Matthew Dennis ↕
71'
Kain Adom / Charlie Webster ↕
↕ Brandon Hanlan / Isaac Hutchinson
74'
↕ Leon Ayinde / Hakeeb Adelakun
80'
80'
H. Araujo / Jack Armer ↕
84'
H. Araujo
Hakeeb Adelakun
90'
Pre-match prediction
40.31%
Doncaster ←
31.24%
X
28.45%
Burton
we assigned to the actual result (Doncaster) 40.31% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Doncaster
1.36
0.66
-0.7
Burton
0.94
1.12
+0.18
Burton Albion dominated by xG (1.12 vs 0.66). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Huddersfield Huddersfield 12 25
2 Stockport County Stockport County 13 23
3 Oxford United Oxford United 11 22
4 Bradford Bradford 12 22
5 Plymouth Plymouth 13 22
6 Reading Reading 12 21
7 Cambridge United Cambridge United 13 21
8 Luton Luton 12 20
9 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 12 19
10 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 11 18
11 Leicester Leicester 12 18
12 Burton Albion Burton Albion 13 17
13 Stevenage Stevenage 11 15
14 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 12 15
15 Wycombe Wycombe 12 15
16 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 12 14
17 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 12 13
18 Doncaster Doncaster 12 12
19 Notts County Notts County 11 11
20 Blackpool Blackpool 11 11
21 Peterborough Peterborough 12 10
22 Bromley Bromley 12 9
23 Barnsley Barnsley 11 8
24 Wigan Wigan 12 7
Lineups
Doncaster Doncaster 3-4-1-2
1 Tommy Simkin Tommy Simkin G 7.36
6 J. McGrath J. McGrath D 6.09
12 N. Byrne N. Byrne D 6.80
27 S. Grehan S. Grehan D 6.89
19 J. Thomas J. Thomas 12' M 6.50
8 G. Broadbent G. Broadbent M 7.07
22 R. Gotts R. Gotts M 6.68
11 L. Ayinde L. Ayinde 1 ⚽ 80' M 7.84
4 O. Bailey O. Bailey M 6.63
9 B. Hanlan B. Hanlan 74' F 6.18
10 A. May A. May 1 👟 F 7.03
Bench
20 D. Robinson D. Robinson M 0.00
47 H. Adelakun H. Adelakun 10' F 6.30
15 H. Clifton H. Clifton M 0.00
21 I. Hutchinson I. Hutchinson 16' M 6.53
42 J. Clarke J. Clarke G 0.00
16 T. Nixon T. Nixon 78' D 6.62
Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
34 C. Addai C. Addai G 5.69
16 C. Tilt C. Tilt D 6.83
12 G. Evans G. Evans D 6.40
26 F. Delap F. Delap D 6.98
3 J. Armer J. Armer 80' M 5.98
4 K. Chauke K. Chauke M 6.74
14 W. Collar W. Collar 45' M 6.25
17 R. Borges Rodrigues R. Borges Rodrigues M 6.22
8 C. Webster C. Webster 71' M 5.91
18
M 6.79
19 M. Dennis M. Dennis 71' F 6.45
Bench
9 G. Arubi G. Arubi 19' F 6.53
24 Harvey Araujo Harvey Araujo 10' D 5.95
32 J. Kean J. Kean G 0.00
20 J. Sraha J. Sraha D 0.00
41 Sulyman Krubally Sulyman Krubally M 0.00
6 T. Sibbick T. Sibbick 45' D 6.56
Best on the pitch
L. Ayinde
L. Ayinde
M · Doncaster
7.84
1 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
Tommy Simkin
Tommy Simkin
G · Doncaster
7.36
· 28 pass
G. Broadbent
G. Broadbent
M · Doncaster
7.07
· 40 pass
A. May
A. May
F · Doncaster
7.03
1 👟
2 shots · 31 pass
F. Delap
F. Delap
D · Burton
6.98
· 63 pass
S. Grehan
S. Grehan
D · Doncaster
6.89
· 46 pass
Doncaster Doncaster — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Tommy Simkin G 90 7.36 — — 0 28 12% 0 — —
J. McGrath D 90 6.09 — — 1 43 26% 1 — —
N. Byrne D 90 6.80 — — 1 30 25% 1 — —
S. Grehan D 90 6.89 — — 0 46 36% 0 — —
J. Thomas M 12 6.50 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
G. Broadbent M 90 7.07 — — 0 40 34% 2 — —
R. Gotts M 90 6.68 — — 1 57 43% 1 1 —
L. Ayinde M 80 7.84 1 — 4 20 14% 1 — —
O. Bailey M 90 6.63 — — 3 20 17% 2 1 —
B. Hanlan F 74 6.18 — — 1 8 6% 0 — —
A. May F 90 7.03 — 1 2 31 20% 2 — —
H. Adelakun F 10 6.30 — — 0 1 1% 0 1 —
I. Hutchinson M 16 6.53 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
T. Nixon D 78 6.62 — — 2 17 14% 3 — —
Burton Albion Burton Albion — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Addai G 90 5.69 — — 0 37 20% 0 — —
C. Tilt D 90 6.83 — — 2 45 37% 2 — —
G. Evans D 90 6.40 — — 1 43 37% 0 — —
F. Delap D 90 6.98 — — 0 63 44% 2 — —
J. Armer M 80 5.98 — — 0 22 11% 2 — —
K. Chauke M 90 6.74 — — 1 47 42% 2 — —
W. Collar M 45 6.25 — — 3 13 6% 0 — —
R. Borges Rodrigues M 90 6.22 — — 1 28 23% 2 — —
C. Webster M 71 5.91 — — 2 30 25% 1 — —
M 90 6.79 — — 2 50 41% 3 — —
M. Dennis F 71 6.45 — — 4 11 10% 1 1 —
G. Arubi F 19 6.53 — — 3 9 8% 0 — —
Harvey Araujo D 10 5.95 — — 2 6 4% 0 1 —
T. Sibbick D 45 6.56 — — 0 23 21% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Doncaster vs Burton Albion?
The final score was Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion.
What did the model predict before Doncaster vs Burton Albion?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Doncaster win, 31% to a draw, and 28% to an Burton Albion win.