Premier Division
· Regular Season - 18
May 22, 2026 21:00
L. Burney
(ast. B. Kavanagh)
57'
18'
(ast. A. Dervin)
G. Arubi
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Dundalk a 48% win probability (draw 20%, Drogheda United 30%). The final result was Drogheda United 1–1 Dundalk. In 3 previous meetings, Drogheda United have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Dundalk.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
10
2
Shots on target
6
0.80
Actual xG
0.97
5
Saves
0
45%
Possession
55%
4
Corners
3
14
Tackles
7
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
11'
S. Tracey
18'
ast. A. Dervin ·
G. Arubi⚽
W. Davis
/ K. Cruise
29'
M. Doyle
40'
46'
L. Gaxha
/
D. Horgan
54'
B. Burns
⚽L. Burney
· ast. B. Kavanagh
57'
63'
K. Buckley
/
S. Tracey
71'
D. Mullen
/
D. McDaid
S. Farrell
/ E. O'Brien
74'
K. Cruise
81'
R. Brennan
/ J. Godden
82'
B. Kavanagh
83'
E. O'Brien
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
30.69%
Drogheda
20.6%
X ←
48.71%
Dundalk
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.6%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.59
0.80
-0.79
2.13
0.97
-1.16
xG dominance was balanced (0.80 – 0.97).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
Fynn Talley
G
Fynn Talley
G
3
C. Kane
D
C. Kane
D
4
A. Quinn
D
A. Quinn
D
5
Leo Burney
1 ⚽
D
Leo Burney
1 ⚽
D
2
E. Agbaje
D
E. Agbaje
D
19
R. Brennan
82'
M
R. Brennan
82'
M
17
S. Farrell
74'
M
S. Farrell
74'
M
11
T. Oluwa
M
T. Oluwa
M
10
B. Kavanagh
1 👟
M
B. Kavanagh
1 👟
M
24
W. Davis
29'
M
W. Davis
29'
M
14
M. Doyle
F
M. Doyle
F
Bench
30
Cian O'Connor
M
Cian O'Connor
M
15
Dare Kareem
F
Dare Kareem
F
32
D. Mare
F
D. Mare
F
8
Ethan O'Brien
18'
M
Ethan O'Brien
18'
M
6
Jago Godden
10'
F
Jago Godden
10'
F
29
J. Brennan
M
J. Brennan
M
31
K. Cruise
63'
D
K. Cruise
63'
D
1
L. Dennison
G
L. Dennison
G
1
E. Minogue
G
E. Minogue
G
22
Tyreke Wilson
D
Tyreke Wilson
D
3
B. Burns
D
B. Burns
D
24
R. Cornwall
D
R. Cornwall
D
5
H. Warren
D
H. Warren
D
27
D. McDaid
71'
D
D. McDaid
71'
D
7
D. Horgan
45'
M
D. Horgan
45'
M
17
S. Tracey
63'
M
S. Tracey
63'
M
6
A. Dervin
1 👟
M
A. Dervin
1 👟
M
16
E. Kenny
M
E. Kenny
M
9
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
Bench
23
A. M. Keogh
M
A. M. Keogh
M
21
Danny Mullen
21'
F
Danny Mullen
21'
F
8
H. Groome
M
H. Groome
M
18
K. Buckley
29'
M
K. Buckley
29'
M
10
Leonardo Gaxha
47'
F
Leonardo Gaxha
47'
F
12
L. Mulligan
D
L. Mulligan
D
13
P. Cherrie
G
P. Cherrie
G
19
Sean Spaight
D
Sean Spaight
D
29
TJ Molloy
F
TJ Molloy
F
Best on the pitch
H. Warren
D · Dundalk
8.00
· 34 pass
Leo Burney
D · Drogheda
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
K. Cruise
D · Drogheda
7.70
1 shots
· 13 pass
G. Arubi
F · Dundalk
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
Fynn Talley
G · Drogheda
7.30
· 33 pass
C. Kane
D · Drogheda
7.20
· 28 pass
Drogheda United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fynn Talley | G | 92 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 14% | — | — | — |
| C. Kane | D | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Quinn | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Leo Burney | D | 92 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 10% | — | — | — |
| E. Agbaje | D | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Brennan | M | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Farrell | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Oluwa | M | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| B. Kavanagh | M | 92 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 29 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| W. Davis | M | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Doyle | F | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ethan O'Brien | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Jago Godden | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| K. Cruise | D | 63 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
Dundalk — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Minogue | G | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Tyreke Wilson | D | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Burns | D | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Cornwall | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 22% | — | — | — |
| H. Warren | D | 92 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| D. McDaid | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Horgan | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| S. Tracey | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Dervin | M | 92 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| E. Kenny | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Arubi | F | 92 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Danny Mullen | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| K. Buckley | M | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Gaxha | F | 47 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The final score was Drogheda United 1–1 Dundalk.
What did the model predict before Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Drogheda United win, 20% to a draw, and 48% to an Dundalk win.