Premier Division
· Regular Season - 18
May 22, 2026 21:00
L. Burney
(ast. B. Kavanagh)
57'
18'
(ast. A. Dervin)
G. Arubi
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Dundalk a 48% win probability (draw 20%, Drogheda United 30%). The final result was Drogheda United 1–1 Dundalk. In 2 previous meetings, Drogheda United have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Dundalk.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
10
2
Shots on target
6
0.80
Actual xG
0.97
5
Saves
0
45%
Possession
55%
4
Corners
3
14
Tackles
7
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
11'
S. Tracey
18'
ast. A. Dervin ·
G. Arubi⚽
W. Davis
/ K. Cruise
29'
M. Doyle
40'
46'
L. Gaxha
/
D. Horgan
54'
B. Burns
⚽L. Burney
· ast. B. Kavanagh
57'
63'
K. Buckley
/
S. Tracey
71'
D. Mullen
/
D. McDaid
S. Farrell
/ E. O'Brien
74'
K. Cruise
81'
R. Brennan
/ J. Godden
82'
B. Kavanagh
83'
E. O'Brien
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
30.69%
Drogheda
20.6%
X ←
48.71%
Dundalk
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.6%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.59
0.80
-0.79
2.13
0.97
-1.16
xG dominance was balanced (0.80 – 0.97).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
Fynn Talley
G
Fynn Talley
G
3
Conor Kane
D
Conor Kane
D
4
Andrew Quinn
D
Andrew Quinn
D
5
Leo Burney
1 ⚽
D
Leo Burney
1 ⚽
D
2
Edwin Agbaje
D
Edwin Agbaje
D
19
Ryan Brennan
82'
M
Ryan Brennan
82'
M
17
Shane Farell
74'
M
Shane Farell
74'
M
11
Thomas Oluwa
M
Thomas Oluwa
M
10
Brandon Kavanagh
1 👟
M
Brandon Kavanagh
1 👟
M
24
Warren Davis
29'
M
Warren Davis
29'
M
14
Mark Doyle
F
Mark Doyle
F
Bench
30
Cian O'Connor
M
Cian O'Connor
M
32
Daniel Mare
F
Daniel Mare
F
15
Dare Kareem
F
Dare Kareem
F
8
Ethan O'Brien
18'
M
Ethan O'Brien
18'
M
6
Jago Godden
10'
F
Jago Godden
10'
F
29
Jamie Brennan
M
Jamie Brennan
M
31
Kieran Cruise
63'
D
Kieran Cruise
63'
D
1
Luke Dennison
G
Luke Dennison
G
1
Enda Minogue
G
Enda Minogue
G
22
Tyreke Wilson
D
Tyreke Wilson
D
3
Bobby Burns
D
Bobby Burns
D
24
Robert Cornwall
D
Robert Cornwall
D
5
Harvey Warren
D
Harvey Warren
D
27
Declan McDaid
71'
D
Declan McDaid
71'
D
7
Daryl Horgan
45'
M
Daryl Horgan
45'
M
17
Shane Tracey
63'
M
Shane Tracey
63'
M
6
Aodh Dervin
1 👟
M
Aodh Dervin
1 👟
M
16
Eoin Kenny
M
Eoin Kenny
M
9
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
Bench
23
Aaron Keogh
M
Aaron Keogh
M
21
Danny Mullen
21'
F
Danny Mullen
21'
F
8
Harry Groome
M
Harry Groome
M
18
Keith Buckley
29'
M
Keith Buckley
29'
M
10
Leonardo Gaxha
47'
F
Leonardo Gaxha
47'
F
12
Luke Mulligan
D
Luke Mulligan
D
13
Peter Cherrie
G
Peter Cherrie
G
19
Sean Spaight
D
Sean Spaight
D
29
TJ Molloy
F
TJ Molloy
F
Best on the pitch
Harvey Warren
D · Dundalk
8.00
· 34 pass
Leo Burney
D · Drogheda
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Kieran Cruise
D · Drogheda
7.70
1 shots
· 13 pass
G. Arubi
F · Dundalk
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
Fynn Talley
G · Drogheda
7.30
· 33 pass
Conor Kane
D · Drogheda
7.20
· 28 pass
Drogheda United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fynn Talley | G | 92 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Conor Kane | D | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Andrew Quinn | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Leo Burney | D | 92 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Edwin Agbaje | D | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Ryan Brennan | M | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Shane Farell | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Thomas Oluwa | M | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Brandon Kavanagh | M | 92 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 29 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Warren Davis | M | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Mark Doyle | F | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ethan O'Brien | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Jago Godden | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| Kieran Cruise | D | 63 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
Dundalk — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enda Minogue | G | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Tyreke Wilson | D | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Bobby Burns | D | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| Robert Cornwall | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Harvey Warren | D | 92 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Declan McDaid | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Daryl Horgan | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Shane Tracey | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Aodh Dervin | M | 92 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Eoin Kenny | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Arubi | F | 92 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Danny Mullen | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Keith Buckley | M | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Gaxha | F | 47 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The final score was Drogheda United 1–1 Dundalk.
What did the model predict before Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Drogheda United win, 20% to a draw, and 48% to an Dundalk win.