D. Horgan
(ast. E. Kenny)
20'
G. Arubi
(ast. D. Horgan)
60'
59'
C. Dummigan
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Dundalk a 46% win probability (draw 27%, Derry City 26%). The final result was Dundalk 2–1 Derry City. In 2 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
4
1.76
Actual xG
0.77
3
Saves
2
40%
Possession
60%
6
Corners
5
31
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽D. Horgan
· ast. E. Kenny
20'
39'
J. Thomas
45'+1
B. Fleming
46'
D. Markey
/
K. Santos
46'
M. Duffy
/
A. O'Reilly
46'
P. McClean
/
B. Doherty
56'
L. Boyce
/
J. Thomas
59'
C. Dummigan⚽
⚽G. Arubi
· ast. D. Horgan
60'
64'
J. Clarke
/
C. Dummigan
S. Tracey
/ R. Teahan
71'
E. Kenny
/ K. Buckley
71'
A. Dervin
73'
76'
J. Olayinka
A. Dervin
/ H. Groome
78'
D. Horgan
/ D. Mullen
82'
90'+5
P. McClean
B. Burns
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
46.09%
Dundalk ←
27.73%
X
26.18%
Derry
we assigned to the actual result (Dundalk)
46.09%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.47
1.76
+0.29
0.97
0.77
-0.2
Dundalk dominated by xG (1.76 vs 0.77).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
E. Minogue
G
E. Minogue
G
22
Tyreke Wilson
D
Tyreke Wilson
D
3
B. Burns
D
B. Burns
D
24
R. Cornwall
D
R. Cornwall
D
31
T. Wilson
D
T. Wilson
D
7
D. Horgan
1 ⚽
1 👟
82'
M
D. Horgan
1 ⚽
1 👟
82'
M
17
S. Tracey
71'
M
S. Tracey
71'
M
6
A. Dervin
78'
M
A. Dervin
78'
M
27
D. McDaid
M
D. McDaid
M
16
E. Kenny
1 👟
71'
F
E. Kenny
1 👟
71'
F
9
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
G. Arubi
1 ⚽
F
Bench
23
A. M. Keogh
M
A. M. Keogh
M
21
Danny Mullen
15'
F
Danny Mullen
15'
F
8
H. Groome
19'
M
H. Groome
19'
M
18
K. Buckley
26'
M
K. Buckley
26'
M
12
L. Mulligan
D
L. Mulligan
D
13
P. Cherrie
G
P. Cherrie
G
19
Sean Spaight
D
Sean Spaight
D
29
TJ Molloy
F
TJ Molloy
F
11
Y. Acheampong
26'
M
13
E. Beach
G
E. Beach
G
19
B. Fleming
D
B. Fleming
D
4
J. Stott
D
J. Stott
D
22
C. Barr
D
C. Barr
D
2
B. Cotter
D
14
B. Doherty
45'
M
28
J. Olayinka
M
J. Olayinka
M
23
C. Dummigan
1 ⚽
64'
M
C. Dummigan
1 ⚽
64'
M
8
A. O'Reilly
45'
M
A. O'Reilly
45'
M
21
Kévin Santos
45'
M
Kévin Santos
45'
M
17
Joshua Thomas
56'
F
Joshua Thomas
56'
F
Bench
25
A. Bannon
D
9
Afolabi Akinyemi
F
Afolabi Akinyemi
F
10
D. Markey
52'
M
D. Markey
52'
M
24
Henry Rylah
M
Henry Rylah
M
15
J. Clarke
33'
M
J. Clarke
33'
M
27
L. Boyce
41'
F
L. Boyce
41'
F
7
M. Duffy
52'
M
M. Duffy
52'
M
3
Patrick McClean
52'
D
Patrick McClean
52'
D
26
Shea Callister
G
Best on the pitch
D. Horgan
M · Dundalk
9.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 34 pass
E. Kenny
F · Dundalk
7.50
1 👟
2 shots
· 17 pass
T. Wilson
D · Dundalk
7.30
· 27 pass
C. Dummigan
M · Derry
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 28 pass
G. Arubi
F · Dundalk
7.20
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 18 pass
A. Dervin
M · Dundalk
7.20
· 18 pass
Dundalk — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Minogue | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Tyreke Wilson | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Burns | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Cornwall | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Wilson | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 17% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Horgan | M | 82 | 9.50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Tracey | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Dervin | M | 78 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | 5 | 1 | — |
| D. McDaid | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Kenny | F | 71 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| G. Arubi | F | 97 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 5 | 18 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Danny Mullen | F | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| H. Groome | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Buckley | M | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Acheampong | M | 26 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Beach | G | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 29% | — | — | — |
| B. Fleming | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 38% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Stott | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | — | — |
| C. Barr | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Cotter | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Doherty | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Olayinka | M | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 37% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Dummigan | M | 64 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 28 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| A. O'Reilly | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Kévin Santos | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Joshua Thomas | F | 56 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Markey | M | 52 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Clarke | M | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Boyce | F | 41 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Duffy | M | 52 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Patrick McClean | D | 52 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Dundalk vs Derry City?
The final score was Dundalk 2–1 Derry City.
What did the model predict before Dundalk vs Derry City?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Dundalk win, 27% to a draw, and 26% to an Derry City win.