✗Model wrong — prediction Dundalk, result Draw
D. Horgan
(ast. H. Groome)
53'
90'+1
G. McElroy
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Dundalk a 71% win probability (draw 14%, Sligo Rovers 13%). The final result was Dundalk 1–1 Sligo Rovers. In 2 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sligo Rovers.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
4
6
Shots on target
3
1.66
Actual xG
1.41
2
Saves
5
61%
Possession
39%
10
Corners
2
12
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
9'
L. Pearce
36'
S. Quirk
/
L. Pearce
⚽D. Horgan
· ast. H. Groome
53'
63'
D. Patton
/
J. McManus
H. Groome
/ T. Grivosti
63'
64'
T. George
/
J. Shorrock
66'
C. McHugh
T. Clarke
/ D. McDaid
71'
K. Buckley
/ L. Gaxha
71'
73'
J. Esua
81'
K. McDonagh
/
S. Stewart
C. Dillon
/ E. Vassenin
87'
90'+1
G. McElroy⚽
R. Cornwall
90'
Pre-match prediction
71.82%
Dundalk
14.91%
X ←
13.27%
Sligo
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
14.91%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.73
1.66
-1.07
0.98
1.41
+0.43
xG dominance was balanced (1.66 – 1.41).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
E. Minogue
G
E. Minogue
G
11
Ronan Teahan
D
Ronan Teahan
D
24
R. Cornwall
D
R. Cornwall
D
4
M. Animasahun
D
M. Animasahun
D
3
B. Burns
D
B. Burns
D
6
A. Dervin
M
A. Dervin
M
18
K. Buckley
71'
M
K. Buckley
71'
M
7
D. Horgan
1 ⚽
M
D. Horgan
1 ⚽
M
8
H. Groome
1 👟
63'
M
H. Groome
1 👟
63'
M
15
Trevor Clarke
71'
M
Trevor Clarke
71'
M
9
C. Dillon
87'
F
C. Dillon
87'
F
Bench
27
D. McDaid
24'
M
D. McDaid
24'
M
16
E. Vassenin
8'
D
E. Vassenin
8'
D
10
Leonardo Gaxha
24'
F
Leonardo Gaxha
24'
F
12
L. Mulligan
D
L. Mulligan
D
13
Peter Cherrie
G
Peter Cherrie
G
20
Samuel Safaei
G
Samuel Safaei
G
19
Sean Spaight
D
Sean Spaight
D
25
Shay Casey
M
Shay Casey
M
44
T. Grivosti
32'
D
T. Grivosti
32'
D
29
S. Sargeant
G
S. Sargeant
G
3
Sean Stewart
81'
D
Sean Stewart
81'
D
52
G. McElroy
1 ⚽
D
G. McElroy
1 ⚽
D
15
O. Denham
D
O. Denham
D
33
Jeannot Esua
D
Jeannot Esua
D
7
J. Shorrock
64'
M
J. Shorrock
64'
M
16
C. McHugh
M
C. McHugh
M
14
J. McManus
63'
M
J. McManus
63'
M
9
Luke Pearce
36'
M
Luke Pearce
36'
M
18
Jamie McGonigle
F
Jamie McGonigle
F
11
C. Kavanagh
F
C. Kavanagh
F
Bench
19
A. Nolan
M
A. Nolan
M
61
Conor Cannon
D
Conor Cannon
D
71
D. Patton
32'
M
D. Patton
32'
M
24
J. O'Donnell
F
J. O'Donnell
F
23
K. McDonagh
14'
M
K. McDonagh
14'
M
1
Liam John Hughes
G
Liam John Hughes
G
28
Ryan O'Kane
F
Ryan O'Kane
F
4
S. Quirk
59'
M
S. Quirk
59'
M
20
T. George
31'
M
T. George
31'
M
Best on the pitch
D. Horgan
M · Dundalk
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 35 pass
G. McElroy
D · Sligo
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 28 pass
C. McHugh
M · Sligo
8.30
· 38 pass
S. Sargeant
G · Sligo
8.20
· 49 pass
E. Minogue
G · Dundalk
7.30
· 33 pass
C. Kavanagh
F · Sligo
7.20
· 19 pass
Dundalk — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Minogue | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Ronan Teahan | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 35 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Cornwall | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Animasahun | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 43 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Burns | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 4 | 46 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Dervin | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Buckley | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 45% | — | — | — |
| D. Horgan | M | 95 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| H. Groome | M | 63 | 5.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Trevor Clarke | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Dillon | F | 87 | 6.00 | — | — | 4 | 14 | 8% | — | — | — |
| D. McDaid | M | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| E. Vassenin | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Gaxha | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Grivosti | D | 32 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
Sligo Rovers — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Sargeant | G | 95 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Sean Stewart | D | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| G. McElroy | D | 95 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 28 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| O. Denham | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeannot Esua | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 12% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Shorrock | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | 2 | — | — |
| C. McHugh | M | 95 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 16% | 4 | 1 | — |
| J. McManus | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Luke Pearce | M | 36 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jamie McGonigle | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Kavanagh | F | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Patton | M | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 4% | — | — | — |
| K. McDonagh | M | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Quirk | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| T. George | M | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
The final score was Dundalk 1–1 Sligo Rovers.
What did the model predict before Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Dundalk win, 14% to a draw, and 13% to an Sligo Rovers win.