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Scottish Premiership · 1st Phase - 33 April 11, 2026 16:00 CalForth Construction Arena, Dundee
Dundee Utd
#5 · 16 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Livingston
✓Model correct — prediction Dundee Utd
W. Ferry (ast. M. Watters) 19'
K. Keresztes (ast. W. Ferry) 75'
Z. Sapsford 90'+3 (pen.)
49' (ast. J. Nouble) L. Smith
53' (ast. J. Prior) L. Smith
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Dundee Utd a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Livingston 10%). The final result was Dundee Utd 3–2 Livingston. In 3 previous meetings, Dundee Utd have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Livingston.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
5
Shots on target
6
1.09
Actual xG
1.79
4
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
3
9
Tackles
17
Match Events
↕ A. Fatah / N. Farrugia
14'
⚽W. Ferry · ast. M. Watters
19'
49'
ast. J. Nouble · L. Smith⚽
53'
ast. J. Prior · L. Smith⚽
↕ M. Watters / P. Camara
62'
↕ I. Iovu / K. Keresztes
62'
↕ V. Sevelj / D. Naamo
62'
64'
S. Pittman / S. May ↕
70'
R. Muirhead / J. Nouble ↕
71'
M. Tait / S. Arfield ↕
71'
B. Kabongolo / B. Fati ↕
⚽K. Keresztes · ast. W. Ferry
75'
82'
J. Zimmerman / L. Smith ↕
↕ W. Ferry / I. Dolcek
88'
⚽Z. Sapsford (pen.)
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
73.19%
Dundee ←
16.7%
X
10.11%
Livingston
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Dundee Utd) 73.19% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Dundee
2.35
1.09
-1.26
Livingston
0.62
1.79
+1.17
Livingston dominated by xG (1.79 vs 1.09). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Celtic Celtic 11 28
2 Rangers Rangers 11 24
3 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 11 20
4 Dundee Dundee 11 17
5 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 11 16
6 Falkirk Falkirk 11 15
7 ST Mirren ST Mirren 11 14
8 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 11 13
9 Aberdeen Aberdeen 11 11
10 Motherwell Motherwell 11 9
11 Hibernian Hibernian 11 8
12 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 11 8
Lineups
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3-4-2-1
25
G 6.30
6
D 6.50
4 I. Iovu I. Iovu 62' D 5.30
37
D 6.50
11 W. Ferry W. Ferry 1 ⚽ 1 👟 88' M 8.90
12 E. Agyei E. Agyei M 7.00
5 V. Ševelj V. Ševelj 62' M 6.20
2 R. Strain R. Strain M 7.30
17 A. Ahmed Fatah A. Ahmed Fatah 14' F 6.30
9 Z. Sapsford Z. Sapsford 1 ⚽ F 6.90
36 Max Watters Max Watters 1 👟 62' F 6.90
Bench
22 D. Naamo D. Naamo 32' D 6.90
19 I. Dolček I. Dolček 6' F
23 K. Keresztes K. Keresztes 1 ⚽ 32' D 8.00
20 N. Farrugia N. Farrugia 80' F 6.50
8 Panutche Camará Panutche Camará 32' M 6.30
Livingston Livingston 3-4-2-1
28
1 👟 G 6.30
26 Cristian Montaño Cristian Montaño D 5.90
27 Danny Wilson Danny Wilson D 5.90
19 D. Finlayson D. Finlayson D 6.60
3 Babacar Fati Babacar Fati 71' M 6.60
24 Mohamad Sylla Mohamad Sylla M 6.90
37 Scott Arfield Scott Arfield 71' M 6.50
2
M 6.30
17
S. May 64' F 6.20
15 L. Smith L. Smith 2 ⚽ 82' F 9.00
7
70' F 7.30
Bench
10 Barrie McKay Barrie McKay M
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo 23' D 5.90
25 M. Tait M. Tait 23' M 6.50
9
R. Muirhead 24' F 6.60
8 Scott Pittman Scott Pittman 30' F 6.30
Best on the pitch
L. Smith
L. Smith
F · Livingston
9.00
2 ⚽
3 shots · 24 pass
W. Ferry
W. Ferry
M · Dundee
8.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 24 pass
K. Keresztes
K. Keresztes
D · Dundee
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 11 pass
F · Livingston
7.30
1 shots · 19 pass
R. Strain
R. Strain
M · Dundee
7.30
· 39 pass
E. Agyei
E. Agyei
M · Dundee
7.00
· 40 pass
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.30 — — — 30 8% — — —
D 94 6.50 — — 1 39 23% 1 — —
I. Iovu D 62 5.30 — — 1 22 12% — — —
D 94 6.50 — — — 35 20% 1 — —
W. Ferry M 88 8.90 1 1 1 24 13% 2 — —
E. Agyei M 94 7.00 — — — 40 33% — — —
V. Ševelj M 62 6.20 — — — 36 21% — — —
R. Strain M 94 7.30 — — — 39 30% 4 — —
A. Ahmed Fatah F 14 6.30 — — — 4 2% — — —
Z. Sapsford F 94 6.90 1 — 4 19 8% — — —
Max Watters F 62 6.90 — 1 — 11 9% — — —
D. Naamo D 32 6.90 — — — 6 4% — — —
I. Dolček F 6 — — — — 2 1% — — —
K. Keresztes D 32 8.00 1 — 1 11 11% — — —
N. Farrugia F 80 6.50 — — 1 24 20% 1 — —
Panutche Camará M 32 6.30 — — 2 17 12% — — —
Livingston Livingston — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.30 — 1 — 35 15% — — —
Cristian Montaño D 94 5.90 — — 1 37 20% 1 — —
Danny Wilson D 94 5.90 — — — 41 26% 2 — —
D. Finlayson D 94 6.60 — — 1 29 16% — — —
Babacar Fati M 71 6.60 — — 1 17 12% 2 — —
Mohamad Sylla M 94 6.90 — — — 37 17% 6 — —
Scott Arfield M 71 6.50 — — — 42 31% 1 — —
M 94 6.30 — — — 34 24% — — —
S. May F 64 6.20 — — — 14 8% 2 — —
L. Smith F 82 9.00 2 — 3 24 13% 2 — —
F 70 7.30 — — 1 19 9% 1 — —
Brooklyn Kabongolo D 23 5.90 — — 2 5 3% — — —
M. Tait M 23 6.50 — — — 9 3% — — —
R. Muirhead F 24 6.60 — — — 11 5% — — —
Scott Pittman F 30 6.30 — — — 7 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Dundee Utd vs Livingston?
The final score was Dundee Utd 3–2 Livingston.
What did the model predict before Dundee Utd vs Livingston?
The model assigned 73% probability to a Dundee Utd win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Livingston win.