Egypt - Malawi
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
50.55%
Win
Egypt
30.96%
Draw
18.48%
Win
Malawi
1.2
0.41
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(19.87%)
1X2 Result
1
51%
X
31%
2
18%
Double Chance
1X
82%
X2
49%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
57%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Egypt a 50% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 18% for Malawi. Expected goals are 1.2 for Egypt and 0.4 for Malawi (total 1.6), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 19.87% probability.
Season Stats
1W
1D
0L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
1.5
0.0
Conceded
2.0
6.0
Shots OT
2.5
7.0
Corners
2.0
64%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
0%
BTTS
100%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Egypt
Malawi →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 1 | 24.0% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 14.3% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Egypt
Attack
43
Defence
73
Form
57
Malawi
Attack
20
Defence
64
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group B
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Egypt
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Angola
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
Malawi
|
2 | 3 |
| 4 |
South Sudan
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group B
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #3 |
| → Egypt | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Malawi | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Egypt vs Malawi?
The model gives Egypt a 50% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 18% for an Malawi win.
How many goals are expected in Egypt vs Malawi?
Expected goals: Egypt 1.2, Malawi 0.4 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Egypt vs Malawi?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 19.87%.