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La Liga · Regular Season - 31 April 11, 2026 18:15
Elche
#17 · 39 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Valencia
#11 · 43 pts
L. Cepeda (ast. A. Febas) 73'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Elche a 37% win probability (draw 30%, Valencia 32%). The final result was Elche 1–0 Valencia. In 1 previous meetings, Elche have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Valencia.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
15
2
Shots on target
8
0.59
Actual xG
2.33
7
Saves
2
57%
Possession
43%
5
Corners
9
22
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Buba Sangare
59'
60'
D. Lopez / L. Rioja ↕
61'
H. Duro / U. Sadiq ↕
63'
G. Rodriguez
↕ Andre Silva / A. Rodriguez
64'
↕ Buba Sangare / J. Donald
64'
↕ M. Neto / L. Cepeda
72'
↕ G. Villar / A. Pedrosa
72'
⚽L. Cepeda · ast. A. Febas
73'
75'
Pepelu / E. Comert ↕
75'
J. Vazquez / J. Gaya ↕
81'
A. Danjuma / L. Beltran ↕
↕ G. Valera / V. Chust
82'
Pre-match prediction
37.69%
Elche ←
30.19%
X
32.11%
Valencia
we assigned to the actual result (Elche) 37.69% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Elche
1.06
0.59
-0.47
Valencia
1.04
2.33
+1.29
Valencia dominated by xG (2.33 vs 0.59). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 36 91
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 36 80
3 Villarreal Villarreal 36 69
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 36 66
5 Real Betis Real Betis 36 57
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 36 50
7 Getafe Getafe 36 48
8 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 36 45
9 Athletic Club Athletic Club 36 44
10 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 36 44
11 Valencia Valencia 36 43
12 Sevilla Sevilla 36 43
13 Osasuna Osasuna 36 42
14 Espanyol Espanyol 36 42
15 Girona Girona 36 40
16 Alaves Alaves 36 40
17 Elche Elche 36 39
18 Mallorca Mallorca 36 39
19 Levante Levante 36 39
20 Oviedo Oviedo 36 29
Lineups
Elche Elche 3-4-1-2
1
G 8.50
21 Léo Pétrot Léo Pétrot D 7.50
22 David Affengruber David Affengruber D 7.70
42 Buba Sangare Buba Sangare 64' D 6.30
11 Germán Valera Germán Valera 82' M 7.00
12 Gonzalo Villar Gonzalo Villar 72' M 7.30
14 Aleix Febas Aleix Febas 1 👟 M 7.90
15 Tete Morente Tete Morente M 6.90
16 Martim Neto Martim Neto 72' F 6.90
9 André Silva André Silva 64' F 6.50
10
Rafa Mir F 6.90
Bench
3 Adrià Pedrosa Adrià Pedrosa 18' D 6.90
20 Álvaro Rodriguez Álvaro Rodriguez 26' F 6.90
18 John Donald John Donald 26' D 6.60
24 Lucas Cepeda Lucas Cepeda 1 ⚽ 18' F 8.20
23 Víctor Chust Víctor Chust 8' D 6.30
Valencia Valencia 4-4-2
1 Stole Dimitrievski Stole Dimitrievski G 7.00
14 José Luis Gayà José Luis Gayà 75' D 6.70
24 Eray Cömert Eray Cömert 75' D 6.20
5 César Tárrega César Tárrega D 6.90
12 Thierry Correia Thierry Correia D 6.50
17 Largie Ramazani Largie Ramazani M 6.90
23 Filip Ugrinić Filip Ugrinić M 6.60
2 Guido Rodríguez Guido Rodríguez M 6.70
11 Luis Rioja Luis Rioja 60' M 8.70
6 Umar Sadiq Umar Sadiq 61' F 6.30
15 L. Beltrán L. Beltrán 81' F 6.30
Bench
10 André Almeida André Almeida M
16 Diego López Diego López 30' F 6.70
9 Hugo Duro Hugo Duro 29' F 6.50
8 Javier Guerra Javier Guerra M
20 Renzo Saravia Renzo Saravia D
Best on the pitch
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja
M · Valencia
8.70
· 14 pass
G · Elche
8.50
· 40 pass
Lucas Cepeda
Lucas Cepeda
F · Elche
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
Aleix Febas
Aleix Febas
M · Elche
7.90
1 👟
· 54 pass
David Affengruber
David Affengruber
D · Elche
7.70
· 73 pass
Léo Pétrot
Léo Pétrot
D · Elche
7.50
1 shots · 55 pass
Elche Elche — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 8.50 — — — 40 28% — — —
Léo Pétrot D 90 7.50 — — 1 55 52% 2 — —
David Affengruber D 90 7.70 — — — 73 63% 1 — —
Buba Sangare D 64 6.30 — — — 50 40% 1 1 —
Germán Valera M 82 7.00 — — 1 25 24% — — —
Gonzalo Villar M 72 7.30 — — — 43 40% 4 — —
Aleix Febas M 90 7.90 — 1 — 54 49% 7 — —
Tete Morente M 90 6.90 — — — 25 20% 1 — —
Martim Neto F 72 6.90 — — — 28 24% 2 — —
André Silva F 64 6.50 — — 1 10 8% 1 — —
Rafa Mir F 90 6.90 — — 2 14 10% 1 — —
Adrià Pedrosa D 18 6.90 — — — 3 1% — — —
Álvaro Rodriguez F 26 6.90 — — — 6 3% 1 — —
John Donald D 26 6.60 — — — 5 3% — — —
Lucas Cepeda F 18 8.20 1 — 2 7 6% 1 — —
Víctor Chust D 8 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Valencia Valencia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Stole Dimitrievski G 90 7.00 — — — 35 22% 1 — —
José Luis Gayà D 75 6.70 — — 1 15 15% 2 — —
Eray Cömert D 75 6.20 — — 1 32 30% — — —
César Tárrega D 90 6.90 — — 1 26 24% 1 — —
Thierry Correia D 90 6.50 — — — 30 27% 1 — —
Largie Ramazani M 90 6.90 — — 4 18 15% 2 — —
Filip Ugrinić M 90 6.60 — — 1 33 26% 1 — —
Guido Rodríguez M 90 6.70 — — — 45 43% 1 1 —
Luis Rioja M 60 8.70 — — — 14 12% 4 — —
Umar Sadiq F 61 6.30 — — 1 8 6% 2 — —
L. Beltrán F 81 6.30 — — 2 13 11% 1 — —
Diego López F 30 6.70 — — 2 9 9% — — —
Hugo Duro F 29 6.50 — — 2 8 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Elche vs Valencia?
The final score was Elche 1–0 Valencia.
What did the model predict before Elche vs Valencia?
The model assigned 37% probability to a Elche win, 30% to a draw, and 32% to an Valencia win.