England - Spain
Weather at kick-off
⛅
Partly cloudy
26.7°C
💨 17 km/h
🌧️ 52%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
37.33%
Win
England
17.06%
Draw
45.61%
Win
Spain
2.78
3.11
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–3
(5.48%)
1X2 Result
1
37%
X
17%
2
46%
Double Chance
1X
54%
X2
63%
12
83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
86%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Spain a 45% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 37% for England. Expected goals are 2.8 for England and 3.1 for Spain (total 5.9), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–3 at 5.48% probability. In 1 previous meetings, England have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Spain.
Season Stats
5W
0D
1L
6W
4D
0L
Averages per game
2.7
Goals
2.5
0.5
Conceded
1.5
6.2
Shots OT
7.2
6.8
Corners
5.2
70%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
80%
67%
O 2.5
80%
33%
BTTS
70%
67%
Clean Sht
30%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
47%
O 3.5
57%
BTTS
2W
0D
1L
· at home
2W
3D
0L
· away
2.7
gls/g
2.0
0.7
Conceded
1.2
67%
Win %
40%
67%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
80%
67%
O 2.5
80%
33%
O 3.5
60%
33%
BTTS
80%
67%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ England
Spain →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
Recent form
Playing profile
England
Attack
55
Defence
62
Form
46
Spain
Attack
56
Defence
91
Form
80
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
14 Jul 2024
1–2
Unavailable
England
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #1 |
| → England | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Spain | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win England vs Spain?
The model gives England a 37% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 45% for an Spain win.
How many goals are expected in England vs Spain?
Expected goals: England 2.8, Spain 3.1 (total 5.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in England vs Spain?
2–3 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 5.48%.