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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Equatorial Guinea - Sierra Leone

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. September 28, 2026 18:00
Equatorial Guinea
vs
Sierra Leone
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.38%
Win
Equatorial Guinea
31.9%
Draw
34.72%
Win
Sierra Leone
1.21
Expected xG
1.29

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.4%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 32%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 67%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sierra Leone a 34% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Equatorial Guinea. Expected goals are 1.2 for Equatorial Guinea and 1.3 for Sierra Leone (total 2.5), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.4% probability.

Season Stats

Equatorial Guinea
0W 0D 3L
Sierra Leone
0W 1D 0L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
1.0
2.0
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
0%
67%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 3 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Equatorial Guinea
0W 0D 2L · at home
Sierra Leone
0W 1D 0L · away
0.5
gls/g
1.0
2.0
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
0%
0%
Win or Draw
100%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.

Score Matrix

↕ Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.2% 10.6% 6.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2%
1 9.9% 12.8% 8.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.0% 7.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.4% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea
No data available
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Sierra Leone Sierra Leone
No data available
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea
Attack
15
Defence
72
Form
41
Sierra Leone Sierra Leone
Attack
25
Defence
65
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
The model gives Equatorial Guinea a 33% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 34% for an Sierra Leone win.
How many goals are expected in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
Expected goals: Equatorial Guinea 1.2, Sierra Leone 1.3 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.4%.