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Eritrea - Guinea

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 15, 2026 18:00
Eritrea
#3 · 1 pts
vs
Guinea
#2 · 3 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.59%
Win
Eritrea
33.59%
Draw
30.82%
Win
Guinea
0.88
Expected xG
0.72

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.41%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 34%
2 31%
Double Chance
1X 69%
X2 64%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Eritrea a 35% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Guinea. Expected goals are 0.9 for Eritrea and 0.7 for Guinea (total 1.6), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.41% probability.

Season Stats

Eritrea
2W 1D 1L
Guinea
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.0
1.8
Conceded
1.0
5.0
Shots OT
2.5
3.0
Corners
4.5
34%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Eritrea
1W 0D 1L · at home
Guinea
0W 0D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.0
2.5
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Eritrea Guinea →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 20.1% 14.5% 5.2% 1.2% 0.2% —
1 17.8% 12.8% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 7.9% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% — —
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% — — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Eritrea Eritrea
L South Africa 0–5
D Kenya 1–1
W Eswatini 1–2
W Eswatini 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Guinea Guinea
W Kenya 1–0
L South Africa 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Eritrea Eritrea
Attack
37
Defence
44
Form
39
Guinea Guinea
Attack
26
Defence
68
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group D

# Team G Pts
1 South Africa South Africa 2 6
2 Guinea Guinea 2 3
3 Eritrea Eritrea 2 1
4 Kenya Kenya 2 1

What's at stake · Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Eritrea Guinea
Current #3 #2
→ Eritrea #2 #3
→ Draw #3 #2
→ Guinea #4 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Eritrea vs Guinea?
The model gives Eritrea a 35% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 30% for an Guinea win.
How many goals are expected in Eritrea vs Guinea?
Expected goals: Eritrea 0.9, Guinea 0.7 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Eritrea vs Guinea?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.41%.