Eritrea - South Africa
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 30, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.51%
Win
Eritrea
30.86%
Draw
29.63%
Win
South Africa
1.99
1.05
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.39%)
1X2 Result
1
40%
X
31%
2
30%
Double Chance
1X
70%
X2
61%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Eritrea a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 29% for South Africa. Expected goals are 2.0 for Eritrea and 1.0 for South Africa (total 3.0), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.39% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Eritrea
South Africa →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
Playing profile
Eritrea
Attack
50
Defence
87
Form
80
South Africa
Attack
23
Defence
71
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Eritrea vs South Africa?
The model gives Eritrea a 39% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 29% for an South Africa win.
How many goals are expected in Eritrea vs South Africa?
Expected goals: Eritrea 2.0, South Africa 1.0 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Eritrea vs South Africa?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.39%.