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Estonia - Iceland

UEFA Nations League October 06, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Estonia
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Iceland
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
47.85%
Win
Estonia
24.11%
Draw
28.04%
Win
Iceland
1.68
Expected xG
1.22

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.3%)
1X2 Result
1 48%
X 24%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 52%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 79%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Estonia a 47% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Iceland. Expected goals are 1.7 for Estonia and 1.2 for Iceland (total 2.9), with a 88% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.3% probability.

Season Stats

Estonia
1W 1D 4L
Iceland
2W 1D 5L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
1.5
1.5
Conceded
2.2
1.7
Shots OT
4.3
1.8
Corners
3.8
34%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
75%
17%
BTTS
75%
17%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
42%
O 3.5
54%
BTTS
Estonia
1W 0D 2L · at home
Iceland
1W 0D 3L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.2
1.7
Conceded
2.2
33%
Win %
25%
33%
Win or Draw
25%
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
75%
33%
O 3.5
50%
33%
BTTS
75%
0%
Clean Sht
25%
67%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Estonia Iceland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5% 6.7% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 9.3% 11.3% 6.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.3% 5.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% —
5 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Estonia Estonia
L Slovakia 1–0
D Azerbaijan 0–0
L Sweden 0–3
W Azerbaijan 3–1
L Sweden 3–0
Iceland Iceland
L Kosovo 1–3
L Kosovo 2–1
L Wales 4–1
W Montenegro 0–2
L Türkiye 2–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Estonia Estonia
Attack
16
Defence
49
Form
2
Iceland Iceland
Attack
18
Defence
44
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 0 0
2 Iceland Iceland 0 0
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 0 0
4 Estonia Estonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Estonia Iceland
Current #4 #2
→ Estonia #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Iceland #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Estonia vs Iceland?
The model gives Estonia a 47% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 28% for an Iceland win.
How many goals are expected in Estonia vs Iceland?
Expected goals: Estonia 1.7, Iceland 1.2 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 88%.
What is the most likely score in Estonia vs Iceland?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.3%.