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Estonia - Luxembourg

UEFA Nations League October 03, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Estonia
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Luxembourg
#1 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
20.59%
Win
Estonia
21.88%
Draw
57.53%
Win
Luxembourg
0.96
Expected xG
1.92
Most likely outcome
Luxembourg
57.53%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (10.75%)
1X2 Result
1 21%
X 22%
2 58%
Double Chance
1X 43%
X2 79%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 79%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luxembourg a 57% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Estonia. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estonia and 1.9 for Luxembourg (total 2.9), with a 87% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 10.75% probability.

Season Stats

Estonia
1W 1D 4L
Luxembourg
2W 3D 3L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
1.0
1.5
Conceded
0.9
1.7
Shots OT
2.6
1.8
Corners
3.4
34%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
63%
50%
O 2.5
25%
17%
BTTS
25%
17%
Clean Sht
38%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
29%
BTTS
Estonia
1W 0D 2L · at home
Luxembourg
1W 2D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.8
1.7
Conceded
0.8
33%
Win %
25%
33%
Win or Draw
75%
67%
O 1.5
75%
67%
O 2.5
0%
33%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
25%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
67%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Estonia Luxembourg →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6% 10.7% 10.3% 6.6% 3.2% 1.2%
1 5.4% 10.4% 9.9% 6.4% 3.0% 1.2%
2 2.6% 5.0% 4.8% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6%
3 0.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% —
5 — 0.1% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Estonia Estonia
L Slovakia 1–0
D Azerbaijan 0–0
L Sweden 0–3
W Azerbaijan 3–1
L Sweden 3–0
Luxembourg Luxembourg
W Malta 3–0
W Malta 0–2
D Northern Ireland 2–2
L Bulgaria 0–1
D Belarus 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

Estonia Estonia
Attack
16
Defence
49
Form
2
Luxembourg Luxembourg
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Luxembourg Luxembourg 0 0
2 Iceland Iceland 0 0
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 0 0
4 Estonia Estonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Estonia Luxembourg
Current #4 #1
→ Estonia #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Luxembourg #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The model gives Estonia a 20% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 57% for an Luxembourg win.
How many goals are expected in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Expected goals: Estonia 1.0, Luxembourg 1.9 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 87%.
What is the most likely score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.75%.