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UEFA Nations League · League C - 3 October 03, 2026 18:00 A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Estonia
#2 · 6 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Luxembourg
#4 · 3 pts
Rasmus Peetson 5'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luxembourg a 30% win probability (draw 41%, Estonia 28%). The final result was Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
9
Shots on target
2
2
Saves
8
46%
Possession
54%
7
Corners
3
15
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
6
Match Events
⚽Rasmus Peetson
5'
29'
Enes Mahmutovic
Jürgen Henn
43'
62'
Hamza Kadamani / Aiman Dardari ↕
62'
Sebastien Thill / Enzo dos Santos ↕
↕ Mattias Männilaan / karel mustmaa
66'
68'
Omar Natami
↕ Kevor Palumets / Markus Soomets
72'
73'
Timothé Rupil / Vincent Thill ↕
Märten Kuusk
73'
78'
Vahid Selimović
↕ Mattias Käit / Mihkel Ainsalu
80'
Karol Mets
82'
83'
Mathias Olesen / Florian Bohnert ↕
83'
Eldin Dzogovic / Enes Mahmutovic ↕
84'
Leandro Barreiro
85'
Eldin Dzogovic
87'
Mathias Olesen
Markus Poom
88'
Pre-match prediction
28.24%
Estonia ←
41.46%
X
30.3%
Luxembourg
we assigned to the actual result (Estonia) 28.24% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estonia
0.69
—
—
Luxembourg
0.72
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Iceland Iceland 4 8
2 Estonia Estonia 4 6
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 4 4
4 Luxembourg Luxembourg 4 3
Lineups
Estonia Estonia 5-3-2
12 M. Igonen M. Igonen G 6.87
19 M. Schjønning-Larsen M. Schjønning-Larsen D 6.56
18 K. Mets K. Mets D 6.80
2 M. Kuusk M. Kuusk D 6.73
3 Maksim Paskotsi Maksim Paskotsi D 7.15
6 R. Peetson R. Peetson 1 ⚽ D 8.10
4 M. Käit M. Käit 80' M 6.73
20 M. Poom M. Poom M 7.20
10 K. Palumets K. Palumets 72' M 6.34
17 M. Männilaan M. Männilaan 66' F 6.37
14 P. Kristal P. Kristal F 6.54
Bench
21 A. Tamm A. Tamm F 0.00
5 E. Tõugjas E. Tõugjas D 0.00
23 F. Liivak F. Liivak M 0.00
13 J. Saliste J. Saliste D 0.00
16 J. Tamm J. Tamm D 0.00
9 Karel Mustmaa Karel Mustmaa 24' F 6.78
1 K. Hein K. Hein G 0.00
22 K. Vallner K. Vallner G 0.00
11 M. Ainsalu M. Ainsalu 10' M 6.53
15 M. Skvortsov M. Skvortsov M 0.00
8 M. Soomets M. Soomets 18' M 6.58
7 R. Saarma R. Saarma M 0.00
Luxembourg Luxembourg 4-1-4-1
1 A. Moris A. Moris G 8.80
13 D. Carlson D. Carlson D 6.99
5
V. Selimović D 6.11
3
E. Mahmutović 83' D 6.57
4 F. Bohnert F. Bohnert 83' D 6.51
6 J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz M 6.80
7 Aiman Dardari Aiman Dardari 62' M 6.32
8 E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos 62' M 6.56
11 V. Thill V. Thill 73' M 6.88
15 Omar Natami Omar Natami M 6.71
9 Jayson Videira Pereira Jayson Videira Pereira F 6.26
Bench
2 E. Džogović E. Džogović 7' D 5.93
14 E. Veiga E. Veiga D 0.00
17 H. Kadamani H. Kadamani 28' M 6.18
16 L. Barreiro L. Barreiro M 0.00
20 M. Goncalves M. Goncalves M 0.00
22 M. Martins M. Martins D 0.00
19 M. Olesen M. Olesen 7' M 6.01
18 S. Ikene S. Ikene D 0.00
21 S. Thill S. Thill 28' M 6.38
23 T. Kips T. Kips G 0.00
12 T. Pereira Cardoso T. Pereira Cardoso G 0.00
10 T. Rupil T. Rupil 17' M 6.36
Best on the pitch
A. Moris
A. Moris
G · Luxembourg
8.80
· 29 pass
R. Peetson
R. Peetson
D · Estonia
8.10
1 ⚽
2 shots · 15 pass
M. Poom
M. Poom
M · Estonia
7.20
2 shots · 45 pass
Maksim Paskotsi
Maksim Paskotsi
D · Estonia
7.15
2 shots · 55 pass
D. Carlson
D. Carlson
D · Luxembourg
6.99
· 66 pass
V. Thill
V. Thill
M · Luxembourg
6.88
1 shots · 47 pass
Estonia Estonia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Igonen G 90 6.87 — — 0 31 24% 0 — —
M. Schjønning-Larsen D 90 6.56 — — 0 26 22% 2 — —
K. Mets D 90 6.80 — — 0 88 83% 1 1 —
M. Kuusk D 90 6.73 — — 0 88 82% 2 1 —
Maksim Paskotsi D 90 7.15 — — 2 55 50% 0 — —
R. Peetson D 90 8.10 1 — 2 15 11% 3 — —
M. Käit M 80 6.73 — — 2 40 35% 1 — —
M. Poom M 90 7.20 — — 2 45 40% 2 1 —
K. Palumets M 72 6.34 — — 2 13 11% 0 — —
M. Männilaan F 66 6.37 — — 0 6 6% 0 — —
P. Kristal F 90 6.54 — — 2 27 23% 3 — —
Karel Mustmaa F 24 6.78 — — 2 1 0% 0 — —
M. Ainsalu M 10 6.53 — — 0 4 1% 0 — —
M. Soomets M 18 6.58 — — 0 7 6% 1 — —
Luxembourg Luxembourg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Moris G 90 8.80 — — 0 29 25% 0 — —
D. Carlson D 90 6.99 — — 0 66 61% 2 — —
V. Selimović D 90 6.11 — — 0 69 64% 0 1 —
E. Mahmutović D 83 6.57 — — 0 54 49% 3 1 —
F. Bohnert D 83 6.51 — — 0 79 66% 2 — —
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz M 90 6.80 — — 1 54 49% 0 — —
Aiman Dardari M 62 6.32 — — 2 10 8% 0 — —
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos M 62 6.56 — — 0 23 21% 2 — —
V. Thill M 73 6.88 — — 1 47 45% 1 — —
Omar Natami M 90 6.71 — — 2 48 44% 3 1 —
Jayson Videira Pereira F 90 6.26 — — 0 10 9% 0 — —
E. Džogović D 7 5.93 — — 0 3 3% 0 1 —
H. Kadamani M 28 6.18 — — 0 8 8% 1 — —
M. Olesen M 7 6.01 — — 0 7 6% 0 1 —
S. Thill M 28 6.38 — — 1 16 16% 0 — —
T. Rupil M 17 6.36 — — 1 6 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The final score was Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.
What did the model predict before Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The model assigned 28% probability to a Estonia win, 41% to a draw, and 30% to an Luxembourg win.