Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 31 April 26, 2026 18:30

Estoril

#9 · 39 pts

0 – 1

Final score

Famalicao

#5 · 53 pts

(pen.) 51' J. De Haas

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Famalicao a 48% win probability (draw 26%, Estoril 24%). The final result was Estoril 0–1 Famalicao. In 2 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Famalicao.

Match statistics

5

Total shots

5

2

Shots on target

5

0.66

Actual xG

1.03

3

Saves

2

54%

Possession

46%

8

Corners

4

11

Tackles

14

0

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

46'

T. Van de Looi

51'

(pen.) J. De Haas⚽

56'

M. De Amorim

↕ P. Amaral / G. Costa

76'

83'

M. Pena / M. De Amorim ↕

87'

U. Abubakar / S. Elisor ↕

87'

L. Realpe / G. Sa ↕

↕ Ferro / A. Marques

88'

90'+1

Garcia / Gil Dias ↕

Pre-match prediction

24.92%

Estoril

26.68%

X

48.4%

Famalicao ←

we assigned to the actual result (Famalicao) 48.4% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Estoril

0.76

0.66

-0.1

Famalicao

1.47

1.03

-0.44

Famalicao dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.66). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	33	85
2	Sporting CP	33	79
3	Benfica	33	77
4	SC Braga	33	58
5	Famalicao	33	53
6	GIL Vicente	33	50
7	Moreirense	33	42
8	Guimaraes	33	42
9	Estoril	33	39
10	Arouca	33	39
11	Alverca	33	39
12	Santa Clara	33	36
13	Rio Ave	33	35
14	Nacional	33	31
15	Estrela	33	29
16	Casa Pia	33	29
17	Tondela	33	28
18	AVS	33	20

Lineups

Estoril 3-4-2-1

16

G 8.00

4 Ferro 88' D 6.30

5 Antef Tsoungui D 7.00

25 Felix Bacher D 6.60

24 Pedro Amaral 76' M 6.20

10 J. Holsgrove M 6.90

8 Xeka M 6.70

2 Ricard Sánchez M 6.70

12 João Carvalho F 6.30

99 R. Guitane F 7.90

14 Y. Begraoui F 6.20

Bench

22 Pedro Carvalho D

70 Peixinho F

21 Pizzi M

Famalicao 4-2-3-1

25 Lazar Carević G 6.70

5 Rafa Soares D 7.20

16 Justin De Haas 1 ⚽ D 8.20

55

I. Ba D 7.30

17

R. Pinheiro D 8.00

14 Mathias De Amorim 83' M 6.70

6 Tom Van De Looi M 6.90

7 Sorriso M 6.60

20 Gustavo Sá 87' M 6.60

23 Gil Dias M 6.90

12 Simon Elisor 87' F 6.30

Bench

80 Pedro Santos F

9 Umar Abubakar 7' F

Best on the pitch

Justin De Haas

D · Famalicao

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 50 pass

G · Estoril

8.00

· 14 pass

R. Pinheiro

D · Famalicao

8.00

· 41 pass

R. Guitane

F · Estoril

7.90

· 28 pass

I. Ba

D · Famalicao

7.30

1 shots · 42 pass

Rafa Soares

D · Famalicao

7.20

· 26 pass

Estoril — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	94	8.00	—	—	—	14	11%	—	—	—
Ferro	D	88	6.30	—	—	—	53	47%	1	—	—
Antef Tsoungui	D	94	7.00	—	—	1	46	42%	—	—	—
Felix Bacher	D	94	6.60	—	—	—	54	47%	2	—	—
Pedro Amaral	M	76	6.20	—	—	—	34	27%	—	—	—
J. Holsgrove	M	94	6.90	—	—	—	71	61%	1	—	—
Xeka	M	94	6.70	—	—	1	36	32%	3	—	—
Ricard Sánchez	M	94	6.70	—	—	1	31	23%	2	—	—
João Carvalho	F	94	6.30	—	—	1	35	28%	—	—	—
R. Guitane	F	94	7.90	—	—	—	28	28%	2	—	—
Y. Begraoui	F	94	6.20	—	—	1	16	11%	—	—	—

Famalicao — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Lazar Carević	G	94	6.70	—	—	—	43	30%	—	—	—
Rafa Soares	D	94	7.20	—	—	—	26	21%	1	—	—
Justin De Haas	D	94	8.20	1	—	1	50	44%	4	—	—
I. Ba	D	94	7.30	—	—	1	42	40%	2	—	—
R. Pinheiro	D	94	8.00	—	—	—	41	35%	1	—	—
Mathias De Amorim	M	83	6.70	—	—	—	28	24%	1	1	—
Tom Van De Looi	M	94	6.90	—	—	—	44	36%	1	1	—
Sorriso	M	94	6.60	—	—	1	19	14%	1	—	—
Gustavo Sá	M	87	6.60	—	—	—	31	18%	3	—	—
Gil Dias	M	91	6.90	—	—	1	26	16%	—	—	—
Simon Elisor	F	87	6.30	—	—	1	12	11%	—	—	—
Umar Abubakar	F	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—