Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 16:30 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril

#17 · 2 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Rio Ave

#16 · 3 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Estoril, result Rio Ave wins

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estoril a 55% win probability (draw 24%, Rio Ave 20%). The final result was Estoril 1–2 Rio Ave. In 2 previous meetings, Estoril have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Rio Ave.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

8

1.15

Actual xG

1.65

55%

Possession

45%

10

Corners

7

Pre-match prediction

55.61%

Estoril

24.16%

X

20.23%

Rio ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Rio Ave) 20.23% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Estoril

1.68

1.15

-0.53

Rio

0.87

1.65

+0.78

Rio Ave dominated by xG (1.65 vs 1.15). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	18
2	Benfica	5	13
3	Sporting CP	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	11
5	Arouca	5	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	7
9	SC Braga	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	7
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	6	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	1