Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 20, 2026 21:15 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela

#6 · 9 pts

4 – 0

Final score

Casa Pia

#18 · 1 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estrela a 42% win probability (draw 31%, Casa Pia 25%). The final result was Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia. In 2 previous meetings, Estrela have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Casa Pia.

Match statistics

8

Shots on target

2

4.40

Actual xG

0.65

53%

Possession

47%

6

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

42.79%

Estrela ←

31.78%

X

25.44%

Casa

we assigned to the actual result (Estrela) 42.79% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Estrela

1.09

4.40

+3.31

Casa

0.75

0.65

-0.1

Estrela dominated by xG (4.40 vs 0.65). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	18
2	Santa Clara	6	14
3	Benfica	5	13
4	Sporting CP	5	13
5	Arouca	6	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	7
9	SC Braga	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	7
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	6	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	1