The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estrela a 42% win probability (draw 31%, Casa Pia 25%). The final result was Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia. In 2 previous meetings, Estrela have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Casa Pia.
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
2
4.40
Actual xG
0.65
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
42.79%
Estrela ←
31.78%
X
25.44%
Casa
we assigned to the actual result (Estrela)
42.79%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.09
4.40
+3.31
0.75
0.65
-0.1
Estrela dominated by xG (4.40 vs 0.65).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The final score was Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Estrela win, 31% to a draw, and 25% to an Casa Pia win.