Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 9
October 24, 2026 16:30
31'
(ast. Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri)
João Rego
90'+2
(ast. Henrique Araújo)
Lawrence Ofori
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estrela a 47% win probability (draw 28%, Casa Pia 24%). The final result was Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia. In 3 previous meetings, Estrela have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Casa Pia.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.72
Actual xG
0.81
2
Saves
6
63%
Possession
37%
7
Corners
5
14
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
31'
ast. Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri ·
João Rego⚽
60'
Henrique Araújo
/
Cassiano
60'
Jérémy Livolant
/
Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri
Ianis Stoica
/ Beni Souza
61'
Rafa Soares
/ Lucas Mincarelli Davin
61'
68'
Patrick Sequeira
Max Scholze
/ Jefferson Encada
72'
Lovro Zvonarek
/ Tom Moustier
72'
78'
Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira
/
João Rego
78'
Selvi Clua
/
Sebastián Pérez
Eddy Doué
/ Alisson Souza
83'
83'
Kevin Prieto
/
Benjamin Pauwels
90'+2
ast. Henrique Araújo ·
Lawrence Ofori⚽
Jefferson Encada
90'+4
90'+4
Pedro Rosas
Pre-match prediction
47.19%
Estrela
28.62%
X
24.19%
Casa ←
we assigned to the actual result (Casa Pia)
24.19%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.49
1.72
+0.23
0.67
0.81
+0.14
Estrela dominated by xG (1.72 vs 0.81).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
24
Léo Linck
G
Léo Linck
G
55
Rafa Soares
61'
D
Rafa Soares
61'
D
5
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
30
Patrick Luan
D
21
M. Scholze
72'
D
M. Scholze
72'
D
10
I. Stoica
61'
M
I. Stoica
61'
M
39
Eddy Doue
83'
M
Eddy Doue
83'
M
78
Santiago Serra
M
Santiago Serra
M
14
L. Zvonarek
72'
M
L. Zvonarek
72'
M
99
A. Marcus
M
A. Marcus
M
37
L. Antonetti
F
L. Antonetti
F
Bench
79
A. Chernev
D
A. Chernev
D
80
Alisson
7'
F
Alisson
7'
F
4
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
93
B. Souza
29'
M
B. Souza
29'
M
22
David Grilo
G
David Grilo
G
51
Diogo Pinto
G
Diogo Pinto
G
72
H. Poniewas
F
H. Poniewas
F
17
Jefferson Encada
18'
D
Jefferson Encada
18'
D
19
Joan Jordán
M
Joan Jordán
M
6
K. Höög Jansson
M
K. Höög Jansson
M
3
L. Mincarelli Davin
29'
D
L. Mincarelli Davin
29'
D
28
T. Moustier
18'
M
T. Moustier
18'
M
1
P. Sequeira
G
P. Sequeira
G
75
Pedro Rosas
D
Pedro Rosas
D
43
David Sousa
D
David Sousa
D
3
Kaly
D
Kaly
D
18
Geraldes
D
Geraldes
D
24
S. Pérez
78'
M
S. Pérez
78'
M
80
L. Ofori
1 ⚽
M
L. Ofori
1 ⚽
M
77
B. Pauwels
83'
M
B. Pauwels
83'
M
70
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
1 ⚽
78'
M
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
1 ⚽
78'
M
11
M. El Boukammiri
1 👟
60'
M
M. El Boukammiri
1 👟
60'
M
90
Cassiano
60'
F
Cassiano
60'
F
Bench
20
A. Jatta
F
A. Jatta
F
17
E. Maurin
F
E. Maurin
F
44
Felipe Silva
D
Felipe Silva
D
8
Gabi Pereira
12'
M
Gabi Pereira
12'
M
9
Henrique Araújo
1 👟
30'
F
Henrique Araújo
1 👟
30'
F
95
Ivan Mandić
G
Ivan Mandić
G
29
J. Livolant
30'
F
J. Livolant
30'
F
4
João Goulart
D
João Goulart
D
98
JP
M
JP
M
27
Kaique Rocha
D
Kaique Rocha
D
19
K. Prieto
7'
F
K. Prieto
7'
F
16
Silvi
12'
M
Silvi
12'
M
Best on the pitch
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
M · Casa
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
L. Ofori
M · Casa
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 26 pass
P. Sequeira
G · Casa
7.97
· 27 pass
M. El Boukammiri
M · Casa
7.40
1 👟
· 14 pass
Geraldes
D · Casa
7.25
· 34 pass
David Sousa
D · Casa
7.17
· 40 pass
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Linck | G | 90 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 34% | 0 | — | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 61 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 6.89 | — | — | 2 | 81 | 76% | 1 | — | — |
| Patrick Luan | D | 90 | 7.11 | — | — | 2 | 83 | 77% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 72 | 6.49 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Stoica | M | 61 | 6.05 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 83 | 6.13 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 38% | 0 | — | — |
| Santiago Serra | M | 90 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 61 | 51% | 5 | — | — |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 72 | 5.74 | — | — | 3 | 29 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | M | 90 | 6.72 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Antonetti | F | 90 | 5.92 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Alisson | F | 7 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Souza | M | 29 | 6.00 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 18 | 5.90 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 0 | 1 | — |
| L. Mincarelli Davin | D | 29 | 6.06 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Moustier | M | 18 | 6.37 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Casa Pia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sequeira | G | 90 | 7.97 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 17% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 90 | 6.89 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 9% | 5 | 1 | — |
| David Sousa | D | 90 | 7.17 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Kaly | D | 90 | 7.12 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Geraldes | D | 90 | 7.25 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Pérez | M | 78 | 6.68 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ofori | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 26 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Pauwels | M | 83 | 6.83 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo | M | 78 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| M. El Boukammiri | M | 60 | 7.40 | — | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 60 | 6.45 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 12 | 6.88 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 30 | 6.54 | — | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Livolant | F | 30 | 7.02 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Prieto | F | 7 | 6.64 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | — | — |
| Silvi | M | 12 | 6.77 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The final score was Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Estrela win, 28% to a draw, and 24% to an Casa Pia win.