✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Jovane
(ast. S. van Hooijdonk)
79'
(pen.)
17'
D. Gul
37'
(ast. A. Costa)
D. Gul
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Estrela 17%). The final result was Estrela 1–2 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
4
1.68
Actual xG
1.88
2
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
0
Corners
6
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
K. Jansson
15'
17'
(pen.)
D. Gul⚽
24'
D. Gul
37'
ast. A. Costa ·
D. Gul⚽
K. Jansson
/ J. Encada
46'
M. Scholze
/ Jovane
46'
G. Doue
/ P. Moreira
46'
61'
William Gomes
/
Pepe
61'
T. Moffi
/
D. Gul
70'
M. Fernandes
/
A. Costa
70'
R. Mora
/
G. Veiga
Rodrigo Pinho
/ S. van Hooijdonk
72'
I. Stoica
/ Alisson Souza
73'
⚽Jovane
· ast. S. van Hooijdonk
79'
82'
T. Moffi
84'
S. Fofana
/
J. Kiwior
S. Lekovic
86'
S. van Hooijdonk
89'
90'+4
D. Costa
Pre-match prediction
17.66%
Estrela
21.7%
X
60.65%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto)
60.65%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.89
1.68
+0.79
1.88
1.88
-0.01
xG dominance was balanced (1.68 – 1.88).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
G
24
Bruno Langa
D
83
Otavio
D
Otavio
D
4
Stefan Leković
D
Stefan Leković
D
21
Max Scholze
45'
D
Max Scholze
45'
D
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'
M
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'
M
39
Eddy Doué
45'
M
Eddy Doué
45'
M
8
Robinho
M
Robinho
M
10
Ianis Stoica
73'
M
Ianis Stoica
73'
M
99
A. Marcus
M
A. Marcus
M
9
Rodrigo Pinho
72'
F
Rodrigo Pinho
72'
F
Bench
63
Alex Sola
M
Alex Sola
M
17
Jefferson Encada
45'
D
Jefferson Encada
45'
D
18
Jorge Meireles
F
Jorge Meireles
F
11
Jovane Cabral
1 ⚽
45'
F
Jovane Cabral
1 ⚽
45'
F
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
1 👟
18'
F
Sydney van Hooijdonk
1 👟
18'
F
99
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
4
Jakub Kiwior
84'
D
5
J. Bednarek
D
J. Bednarek
D
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
20
Alberto Baio
1 👟
70'
D
Alberto Baio
1 👟
70'
D
10
Gabri Veiga
70'
M
Gabri Veiga
70'
M
13
Pablo Rosario
M
8
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
F
27
D. Gül
2 ⚽
61'
F
D. Gül
2 ⚽
61'
F
11
Pepê Aquino
61'
F
Pepê Aquino
61'
F
Bench
17
Borja Sainz
F
Borja Sainz
F
74
Francisco Moura
D
Francisco Moura
D
52
M. Fernandes
20'
D
86
Rodrigo Mora
20'
M
Rodrigo Mora
20'
M
42
Seko Fofana
12'
M
Seko Fofana
12'
M
29
Terem Moffi
29'
F
Terem Moffi
29'
F
7
William
29'
F
William
29'
F
Best on the pitch
Oskar Pietuszewski
F · FC
8.00
1 shots
· 21 pass
Alberto Baio
D · FC
8.00
1 👟
· 22 pass
Jovane Cabral
F · Estrela
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
Thiago Silva
D · FC
7.50
· 64 pass
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.20
1 shots
· 36 pass
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Otavio | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Stefan Leković | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Max Scholze | D | 45 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eddy Doué | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| Ianis Stoica | M | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 29 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 45 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 18 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
FC Porto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Jakub Kiwior | D | 84 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 64 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| Alberto Baio | D | 70 | 8.00 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabri Veiga | M | 70 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Pablo Rosario | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 51 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Oskar Pietuszewski | F | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Gül | F | 61 | 7.00 | 2 | — | 2 | 9 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Pepê Aquino | F | 61 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernandes | D | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Seko Fofana | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Terem Moffi | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | 1 | 1 | — |
| William | F | 29 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estrela 1–2 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 17% probability to a Estrela win, 21% to a draw, and 60% to an FC Porto win.