← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 31 April 26, 2026 21:00
Estrela
#15 · 29 pts
1 – 2
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 85 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Jovane (ast. S. van Hooijdonk) 79'
(pen.) 17' D. Gul
37' (ast. A. Costa) D. Gul

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Estrela 17%). The final result was Estrela 1–2 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
4
1.68
Actual xG
1.88
2
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
0
Corners
6
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
K. Jansson
15'
17'
(pen.) D. Gul⚽
24'
D. Gul
37'
ast. A. Costa · D. Gul⚽
↕ K. Jansson / J. Encada
46'
↕ M. Scholze / Jovane
46'
↕ G. Doue / P. Moreira
46'
61'
William Gomes / Pepe ↕
61'
T. Moffi / D. Gul ↕
70'
M. Fernandes / A. Costa ↕
70'
R. Mora / G. Veiga ↕
↕ Rodrigo Pinho / S. van Hooijdonk
72'
↕ I. Stoica / Alisson Souza
73'
⚽Jovane · ast. S. van Hooijdonk
79'
82'
T. Moffi
84'
S. Fofana / J. Kiwior ↕
S. Lekovic
86'
S. van Hooijdonk
89'
90'+4
D. Costa
Pre-match prediction
17.66%
Estrela
21.7%
X
60.65%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 60.65% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estrela
0.89
1.68
+0.79
FC
1.88
1.88
-0.01
xG dominance was balanced (1.68 – 1.88). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
Estrela Estrela 4-2-3-1
22
G 6.20
24 Bruno Langa Bruno Langa D 7.20
83
Otavio D 6.50
4 Stefan Leković Stefan Leković D 6.90
21 Max Scholze Max Scholze 45' D 6.00
6 Kevin Höög Jansson Kevin Höög Jansson 45' M 5.90
39 Eddy Doué Eddy Doué 45' M 6.60
8
Robinho M 6.20
10 Ianis Stoica Ianis Stoica 73' M 6.30
99 A. Marcus A. Marcus M 6.70
9 Rodrigo Pinho Rodrigo Pinho 72' F 6.30
Bench
63 Alex Sola Alex Sola M
17 Jefferson Encada Jefferson Encada 45' D 6.60
18 Jorge Meireles Jorge Meireles F
11 Jovane Cabral Jovane Cabral 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.90
30 Luan Patrick Luan Patrick D
20 Sydney van Hooijdonk Sydney van Hooijdonk 1 👟 18' F 6.90
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 7.20
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior 84' D 6.60
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 6.70
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D 7.50
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 👟 70' D 8.00
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 70' M 7.30
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario M 7.00
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt M 6.60
77 Oskar Pietuszewski Oskar Pietuszewski F 8.00
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül 2 ⚽ 61' F 7.00
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 61' F 5.90
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz F
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura D
52
M. Fernandes 20' D 6.20
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 20' M 6.20
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 12' M 6.30
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 29' F 6.30
7 William William 29' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski
F · FC
8.00
1 shots · 21 pass
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
8.00
1 👟
· 22 pass
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral
F · Estrela
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 22 pass
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva
D · FC
7.50
· 64 pass
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.30
1 shots · 28 pass
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.20
1 shots · 36 pass
Estrela Estrela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 36 17% — — —
Bruno Langa D 90 7.20 — — 1 36 22% 3 — —
Otavio D 90 6.50 — — — 37 33% 2 — —
Stefan Leković D 90 6.90 — — — 45 39% 2 1 —
Max Scholze D 45 6.00 — — — 16 14% — — —
Kevin Höög Jansson M 45 5.90 — — 1 15 13% 1 1 —
Eddy Doué M 45 6.60 — — — 15 14% — — —
Robinho M 90 6.20 — — — 40 33% 3 — —
Ianis Stoica M 73 6.30 — — 2 17 13% 1 — —
A. Marcus M 90 6.70 — — 3 29 21% 2 — —
Rodrigo Pinho F 72 6.30 — — — 8 5% — — —
Jefferson Encada D 45 6.60 — — — 14 12% — — —
Jovane Cabral F 45 7.90 1 — 1 22 18% — — —
Sydney van Hooijdonk F 18 6.90 — 1 1 1 — — 1 —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 7.20 — — — 20 10% — 1 —
Jakub Kiwior D 84 6.60 — — 1 42 34% 3 — —
J. Bednarek D 90 6.70 — — 1 63 54% 1 — —
Thiago Silva D 90 7.50 — — — 64 60% 2 — —
Alberto Baio D 70 8.00 — 1 — 22 21% 1 — —
Gabri Veiga M 70 7.30 — — 1 28 26% 1 — —
Pablo Rosario M 90 7.00 — — — 51 36% — — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 90 6.60 — — — 28 24% — — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 90 8.00 — — 1 21 18% 2 — —
Deniz Gül F 61 7.00 2 — 2 9 7% — 1 —
Pepê Aquino F 61 5.90 — — 1 19 15% — — —
M. Fernandes D 20 6.20 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 20 6.20 — — 1 9 7% 1 — —
Seko Fofana M 12 6.30 — — — 10 6% 1 — —
Terem Moffi F 29 6.30 — — — 5 2% 1 1 —
William F 29 6.60 — — — 6 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estrela 1–2 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 17% probability to a Estrela win, 21% to a draw, and 60% to an FC Porto win.