✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP
59'
(ast. Trincao)
D. Braganca
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Estrela 15%). The final result was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP. In 2 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
2
0.37
Actual xG
0.67
1
Saves
3
33%
Possession
67%
4
Corners
13
15
Tackles
9
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'+2
46'
G. Vagiannidis
/
I. Fresneda
59'
ast. Trincao ·
D. Braganca⚽
I. Stoica
/ Jovane
62'
Robinho
/ J. Meireles
65'
67'
H. Morita
/
D. Braganca
67'
G. Quenda
/
P. Goncalves
B. Langa
/ Otavio
76'
Rodrigo Pinho
/ S. van Hooijdonk
77'
G. Doue
/ J. Encada
77'
87'
Rui Silva
Jefferson Encada
88'
90'+2
O. Diomande
/
Trincao
90'+6
R. Nel
/
G. Catamo
Sydney van Hooijdonk
90'
Pre-match prediction
15.85%
Estrela
18.23%
X
65.91%
Sporting ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP)
65.91%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.16
0.37
-0.79
2.42
0.67
-1.75
Sporting CP dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.37).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
76'
D
Bruno Langa
76'
D
14
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
4
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
21
M. Scholze
D
M. Scholze
D
8
Robinho
65'
M
Robinho
65'
M
6
K. Höög Jansson
M
K. Höög Jansson
M
39
Eddy Doue
77'
M
Eddy Doue
77'
M
10
I. Stoica
62'
F
I. Stoica
62'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
77'
F
99
A. Marcus
F
A. Marcus
F
Bench
63
Alexandre Sola
M
Alexandre Sola
M
17
Jefferson Encada
13'
D
Jefferson Encada
13'
D
18
Jorge Meireles
25'
F
11
Jovane Cabral
28'
F
Jovane Cabral
28'
F
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
83
Otávio
14'
D
Otávio
14'
D
20
S. van Hooijdonk
13'
F
S. van Hooijdonk
13'
F
1
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
20
M. Araújo
D
M. Araújo
D
6
Z. Debast
D
Z. Debast
D
72
Eduardo Quaresma
D
Eduardo Quaresma
D
22
Iván Fresneda
45'
D
Iván Fresneda
45'
D
23
Daniel Bragança
1 ⚽
67'
M
Daniel Bragança
1 ⚽
67'
M
42
M. Hjulmand
M
M. Hjulmand
M
8
Pedro Gonçalves
67'
M
Pedro Gonçalves
67'
M
17
Trincão
1 👟
89'
M
Trincão
1 👟
89'
M
10
Geny Catamo
89'
M
Geny Catamo
89'
M
97
L. Suárez
F
L. Suárez
F
Bench
7
Geovany Tcherno Quenda
23'
M
Geovany Tcherno Quenda
23'
M
14
G. Kochorashvili
M
G. Kochorashvili
M
13
G. Vagiannidis
45'
D
G. Vagiannidis
45'
D
5
H. Morita
23'
M
H. Morita
23'
M
26
Ousmane Diomande
1'
D
90
Rafael Ferreira Nel
1'
F
Rafael Ferreira Nel
1'
F
91
Ricardo Mangas
D
Ricardo Mangas
D
Best on the pitch
Rui Silva
G · Sporting
8.00
· 30 pass
Daniel Bragança
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.30
· 20 pass
Geovany Tcherno Quenda
M · Sporting
7.30
· 18 pass
M. Hjulmand
M · Sporting
7.30
· 61 pass
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
7.30
· 23 pass
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 76 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| K. Höög Jansson | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| I. Stoica | F | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Otávio | D | 14 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| S. van Hooijdonk | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
Sporting CP — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Silva | G | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Araújo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Z. Debast | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 92 | 77% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Quaresma | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 90 | 87% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Bragança | M | 67 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 39% | — | — | — |
| M. Hjulmand | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro Gonçalves | M | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Trincão | M | 89 | 5.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Geny Catamo | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Suárez | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Geovany Tcherno Quenda | M | 23 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Vagiannidis | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| H. Morita | M | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Ferreira Nel | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The final score was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The model assigned 15% probability to a Estrela win, 18% to a draw, and 65% to an Sporting CP win.