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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 21:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Estrela
#15 · 30 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Sporting CP
#2 · 82 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP
59' (ast. Trincao) D. Braganca
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Estrela 15%). The final result was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP. In 1 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
2
0.37
Actual xG
0.67
1
Saves
3
33%
Possession
67%
4
Corners
13
15
Tackles
9
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'+2
46'
G. Vagiannidis / I. Fresneda ↕
59'
ast. Trincao · D. Braganca⚽
↕ I. Stoica / Jovane
62'
↕ Robinho / J. Meireles
65'
67'
H. Morita / D. Braganca ↕
67'
G. Quenda / P. Goncalves ↕
↕ B. Langa / Otavio
76'
↕ Rodrigo Pinho / S. van Hooijdonk
77'
↕ G. Doue / J. Encada
77'
87'
Rui Silva
Jefferson Encada
88'
90'+2
O. Diomande / Trincao ↕
90'+6
R. Nel / G. Catamo ↕
Sydney van Hooijdonk
90'
Pre-match prediction
15.85%
Estrela
18.23%
X
65.91%
Sporting ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 65.91% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estrela
1.16
0.37
-0.79
Sporting
2.42
0.67
-1.75
Sporting CP dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.37). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 34 88
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 34 82
3 Benfica Benfica 34 80
4 SC Braga SC Braga 34 59
5 Famalicao Famalicao 34 56
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 34 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 34 43
8 Arouca Arouca 34 42
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes 34 42
10 Estoril Estoril 34 39
11 Alverca Alverca 34 39
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave 34 36
13 Santa Clara Santa Clara 34 36
14 Nacional Nacional 34 34
15 Estrela Estrela 34 30
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 34 30
17 Tondela Tondela 34 28
18 AVS AVS 34 21
Lineups
Estrela Estrela 4-3-3
40
G 6.30
24 Bruno Langa Bruno Langa 76' D 7.30
14 Bernardo Schappo Bernardo Schappo D 6.20
4 Stefan Leković Stefan Leković D 7.20
21 Max Scholze Max Scholze D 7.20
8 Robinho Robinho 65' M 6.50
6 Kevin Höög Jansson Kevin Höög Jansson M 6.30
39 Eddy Doué Eddy Doué 77' M 6.20
10 Ianis Stoica Ianis Stoica 62' F 6.90
9 Rodrigo Pinho Rodrigo Pinho 77' F 6.90
99 A. Marcus A. Marcus F 7.30
Bench
63 Alex Sola Alex Sola M
17 Jefferson Encada Jefferson Encada 13' D 6.60
18 Jorge Meireles Jorge Meireles 25' F 6.30
11 Jovane Cabral Jovane Cabral 28' F 6.30
30 Luan Patrick Luan Patrick D
83 Otavio Otavio 14' D 7.20
20 Sydney van Hooijdonk Sydney van Hooijdonk 13' F 6.30
Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
1 Rui Silva Rui Silva G 8.00
20 M. Araújo M. Araújo D 6.90
6
Z. Debast D 7.30
72 Eduardo Quaresma Eduardo Quaresma D 7.30
22
I. Fresneda 45' D 6.60
23 Daniel Bragança Daniel Bragança 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.90
42 M. Hjulmand M. Hjulmand M 7.30
8 Pote Pote 67' M 6.20
17 Francisco Trincão Francisco Trincão 1 👟 89' M 5.90
10 Geny Catamo Geny Catamo 89' M 6.30
97 L. Suárez L. Suárez F 6.30
Bench
13 Georgios Vagiannidis Georgios Vagiannidis 45' D 6.70
7 Geovany Quenda Geovany Quenda 23' M 7.30
14
Giorgi Kochorashvili M
5 Hidemasa Morita Hidemasa Morita 23' M 6.30
26 O. Diomande O. Diomande 1' D
90 Rafael Nel Rafael Nel 1' F
91 Ricardo Mangas Ricardo Mangas D
Best on the pitch
Rui Silva
Rui Silva
G · Sporting
8.00
· 30 pass
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 45 pass
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.30
· 20 pass
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
M · Sporting
7.30
· 18 pass
M. Hjulmand
M. Hjulmand
M · Sporting
7.30
· 61 pass
A. Marcus
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
7.30
· 23 pass
Estrela Estrela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 23 11% — — —
Bruno Langa D 76 7.30 — — — 20 15% 4 — —
Bernardo Schappo D 90 6.20 — — — 32 25% — — —
Stefan Leković D 90 7.20 — — — 35 29% 5 — —
Max Scholze D 90 7.20 — — 1 29 22% 3 — —
Robinho M 65 6.50 — — 1 7 5% — — —
Kevin Höög Jansson M 90 6.30 — — — 22 18% 1 1 —
Eddy Doué M 77 6.20 — — 2 26 21% — — —
Ianis Stoica F 62 6.90 — — 1 10 7% — — —
Rodrigo Pinho F 77 6.90 — — — 9 7% — — —
A. Marcus F 90 7.30 — — — 23 19% — — —
Jefferson Encada D 13 6.60 — — — 8 8% 1 1 —
Jorge Meireles F 25 6.30 — — — 13 10% 1 — —
Jovane Cabral F 28 6.30 — — — 17 14% — — —
Otavio D 14 7.20 — — 1 7 7% — — —
Sydney van Hooijdonk F 13 6.30 — — 1 5 4% — 1 —
Sporting CP Sporting CP — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rui Silva G 90 8.00 — — — 30 25% — 1 —
M. Araújo D 90 6.90 — — 1 50 41% 1 — —
Z. Debast D 90 7.30 — — — 92 77% — — —
Eduardo Quaresma D 90 7.30 — — — 90 87% 1 — —
I. Fresneda D 45 6.60 — — — 32 29% 1 — —
Daniel Bragança M 67 7.90 1 — 1 45 39% — — —
M. Hjulmand M 90 7.30 — — — 61 56% 2 — —
Pote M 67 6.20 — — 1 36 26% — — —
Francisco Trincão M 89 5.90 — 1 1 48 41% 1 — —
Geny Catamo M 89 6.30 — — 1 36 28% 1 — —
L. Suárez F 90 6.30 — — 1 14 10% — — —
Georgios Vagiannidis D 45 6.70 — — — 19 16% — — —
Geovany Quenda M 23 7.30 — — — 18 15% 1 — —
Hidemasa Morita M 23 6.30 — — — 17 17% 1 — —
O. Diomande D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Rafael Nel F 1 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The final score was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The model assigned 15% probability to a Estrela win, 18% to a draw, and 65% to an Sporting CP win.