← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 23:30
Estrela
#15 · 29 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Sporting CP
#2 · 79 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP
59' (ast. Trincao) D. Braganca

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Estrela 15%). The final result was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP. In 1 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
2
0.37
Actual xG
0.67
1
Saves
3
33%
Possession
67%
4
Corners
13
15
Tackles
9
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'+2
46'
G. Vagiannidis / I. Fresneda ↕
59'
ast. Trincao · D. Braganca⚽
↕ I. Stoica / Jovane
62'
↕ Robinho / J. Meireles
65'
67'
H. Morita / D. Braganca ↕
67'
G. Quenda / P. Goncalves ↕
↕ B. Langa / Otavio
76'
↕ Rodrigo Pinho / S. van Hooijdonk
77'
↕ G. Doue / J. Encada
77'
87'
Rui Silva
Jefferson Encada
88'
90'+2
O. Diomande / Trincao ↕
90'+6
R. Nel / G. Catamo ↕
Sydney van Hooijdonk
90'
Pre-match prediction
15.85%
Estrela
18.23%
X
65.91%
Sporting ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 65.91% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estrela
1.16
0.37
-0.79
Sporting
2.42
0.67
-1.75
Sporting CP dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.37). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
Estrela Estrela 4-3-3
40
G 6.30
24 Bruno Langa Bruno Langa 76' D 7.30
14 Bernardo Schappo Bernardo Schappo D 6.20
4 Stefan Leković Stefan Leković D 7.20
21 Max Scholze Max Scholze D 7.20
8
Robinho 65' M 6.50
6 Kevin Höög Jansson Kevin Höög Jansson M 6.30
39 Eddy Doué Eddy Doué 77' M 6.20
10 Ianis Stoica Ianis Stoica 62' F 6.90
9 Rodrigo Pinho Rodrigo Pinho 77' F 6.90
99 A. Marcus A. Marcus F 7.30
Bench
63 Alex Sola Alex Sola M
17 Jefferson Encada Jefferson Encada 13' D 6.60
18 Jorge Meireles Jorge Meireles 25' F 6.30
11 Jovane Cabral Jovane Cabral 28' F 6.30
30 Luan Patrick Luan Patrick D
83
Otavio 14' D 7.20
20 Sydney van Hooijdonk Sydney van Hooijdonk 13' F 6.30
Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
1 Rui Silva Rui Silva G 8.00
20 M. Araújo M. Araújo D 6.90
6
Z. Debast D 7.30
72 Quaresma Quaresma D 7.30
22
I. Fresneda 45' D 6.60
23 Daniel Bragança Daniel Bragança 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.90
42 M. Hjulmand M. Hjulmand M 7.30
8 Pote Pote 67' M 6.20
17 Trincão Trincão 1 👟 89' M 5.90
10 Geny Catamo Geny Catamo 89' M 6.30
97 L. Suárez L. Suárez F 6.30
Bench
7 Geovany Quenda Geovany Quenda 23' M 7.30
14 Giorgi Kochorashvili Giorgi Kochorashvili M
13
Giorgos Vagiannidis 45' D 6.70
5 Hidemasa Morita Hidemasa Morita 23' M 6.30
26 Ousmane Diomande Ousmane Diomande 1' D
90 Rafael Nel Rafael Nel 1' F
91 Ricardo Mangas Ricardo Mangas D
Best on the pitch
Rui Silva
Rui Silva
G · Sporting
8.00
· 30 pass
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 45 pass
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.30
· 20 pass
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
M · Sporting
7.30
· 18 pass
M. Hjulmand
M. Hjulmand
M · Sporting
7.30
· 61 pass
A. Marcus
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
7.30
· 23 pass
Estrela Estrela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 23 11% — — —
Bruno Langa D 76 7.30 — — — 20 15% 4 — —
Bernardo Schappo D 90 6.20 — — — 32 25% — — —
Stefan Leković D 90 7.20 — — — 35 29% 5 — —
Max Scholze D 90 7.20 — — 1 29 22% 3 — —
Robinho M 65 6.50 — — 1 7 5% — — —
Kevin Höög Jansson M 90 6.30 — — — 22 18% 1 1 —
Eddy Doué M 77 6.20 — — 2 26 21% — — —
Ianis Stoica F 62 6.90 — — 1 10 7% — — —
Rodrigo Pinho F 77 6.90 — — — 9 7% — — —
A. Marcus F 90 7.30 — — — 23 19% — — —
Jefferson Encada D 13 6.60 — — — 8 8% 1 1 —
Jorge Meireles F 25 6.30 — — — 13 10% 1 — —
Jovane Cabral F 28 6.30 — — — 17 14% — — —
Otavio D 14 7.20 — — 1 7 7% — — —
Sydney van Hooijdonk F 13 6.30 — — 1 5 4% — 1 —
Sporting CP Sporting CP — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rui Silva G 90 8.00 — — — 30 25% — 1 —
M. Araújo D 90 6.90 — — 1 50 41% 1 — —
Z. Debast D 90 7.30 — — — 92 77% — — —
Quaresma D 90 7.30 — — — 90 87% 1 — —
I. Fresneda D 45 6.60 — — — 32 29% 1 — —
Daniel Bragança M 67 7.90 1 — 1 45 39% — — —
M. Hjulmand M 90 7.30 — — — 61 56% 2 — —
Pote M 67 6.20 — — 1 36 26% — — —
Trincão M 89 5.90 — 1 1 48 41% 1 — —
Geny Catamo M 89 6.30 — — 1 36 28% 1 — —
L. Suárez F 90 6.30 — — 1 14 10% — — —
Geovany Quenda M 23 7.30 — — — 18 15% 1 — —
Giorgos Vagiannidis D 45 6.70 — — — 19 16% — — —
Hidemasa Morita M 23 6.30 — — — 17 17% 1 — —
Ousmane Diomande D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Rafael Nel F 1 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The final score was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The model assigned 15% probability to a Estrela win, 18% to a draw, and 65% to an Sporting CP win.