✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP
59'
(ast. Trincao)
D. Braganca
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Estrela 15%). The final result was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP. In 2 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
2
0.37
Actual xG
0.67
1
Saves
3
33%
Possession
67%
4
Corners
13
15
Tackles
9
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Kevin Höög Jansson
45'+2
46'
G. Vagiannidis
/
I. Fresneda
59'
ast. Trincao ·
D. Braganca⚽
I. Stoica
/ Jovane
62'
Robinho
/ J. Meireles
65'
67'
H. Morita
/
D. Braganca
67'
G. Quenda
/
P. Goncalves
B. Langa
/ Otavio
76'
Rodrigo Pinho
/ S. van Hooijdonk
77'
G. Doue
/ J. Encada
77'
87'
Rui Silva
Jefferson Encada
88'
90'+2
O. Diomande
/
Trincao
90'+6
R. Nel
/
G. Catamo
Sydney van Hooijdonk
90'
Pre-match prediction
15.85%
Estrela
18.23%
X
65.91%
Sporting ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP)
65.91%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.16
0.37
-0.79
2.42
0.67
-1.75
Sporting CP dominated by xG (0.67 vs 0.37).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
76'
D
14
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
4
Stefan Leković
D
Stefan Leković
D
21
Max Scholze
D
Max Scholze
D
8
Robinho
65'
M
Robinho
65'
M
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
M
Kevin Höög Jansson
M
39
Eddy Doué
77'
M
Eddy Doué
77'
M
10
I. Stoica
62'
F
I. Stoica
62'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
77'
F
99
Abraham Marcus
F
Abraham Marcus
F
Bench
63
Alex Sola
M
Alex Sola
M
17
Jefferson Encada
13'
D
Jefferson Encada
13'
D
18
Jorge Meireles
25'
F
11
Jovane Cabral
28'
F
Jovane Cabral
28'
F
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
83
Otavio
14'
D
Otavio
14'
D
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
13'
F
Sydney van Hooijdonk
13'
F
1
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
20
M. Araújo
D
M. Araújo
D
6
Zeno Debast
D
Zeno Debast
D
72
Eduardo Quaresma
D
Eduardo Quaresma
D
22
Iván Fresneda
45'
D
Iván Fresneda
45'
D
23
Daniel Bragança
1 ⚽
67'
M
Daniel Bragança
1 ⚽
67'
M
42
M. Hjulmand
M
M. Hjulmand
M
8
Pote
67'
M
Pote
67'
M
17
Francisco Trincão
1 👟
89'
M
Francisco Trincão
1 👟
89'
M
10
Geny Catamo
89'
M
Geny Catamo
89'
M
97
L. Suárez
F
L. Suárez
F
Bench
13
Georgios Vagiannidis
45'
D
Georgios Vagiannidis
45'
D
7
Geovany Quenda
23'
M
Geovany Quenda
23'
M
14
Giorgi Kochorashvili
M
5
Hidemasa Morita
23'
M
Hidemasa Morita
23'
M
26
Ousmane Diomande
1'
D
Ousmane Diomande
1'
D
90
Rafael Nel
1'
F
Rafael Nel
1'
F
91
Ricardo Mangas
D
Ricardo Mangas
D
Best on the pitch
Rui Silva
G · Sporting
8.00
· 30 pass
Daniel Bragança
M · Sporting
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
Bruno Langa
D · Estrela
7.30
· 20 pass
Geovany Quenda
M · Sporting
7.30
· 18 pass
M. Hjulmand
M · Sporting
7.30
· 61 pass
Abraham Marcus
F · Estrela
7.30
· 23 pass
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 76 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Stefan Leković | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 5 | — | — |
| Max Scholze | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eddy Doué | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| I. Stoica | F | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Abraham Marcus | F | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Otavio | D | 14 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
Sporting CP — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Silva | G | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Araújo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Zeno Debast | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 92 | 77% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Quaresma | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 90 | 87% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Bragança | M | 67 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 39% | — | — | — |
| M. Hjulmand | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Pote | M | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Trincão | M | 89 | 5.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Geny Catamo | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Suárez | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Georgios Vagiannidis | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Geovany Quenda | M | 23 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Hidemasa Morita | M | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Nel | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The final score was Estrela 0–1 Sporting CP.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The model assigned 15% probability to a Estrela win, 18% to a draw, and 65% to an Sporting CP win.