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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1 August 08, 2026 21:30
Estrela
#6 · 9 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Sporting CP
#3 · 13 pts
L. Antonetti (ast. I. Stoica) 72'
B. Souza (ast. Robinho) 84'
46' (ast. G. Catamo) R. Zalazar
59' (ast. R. Zalazar) F. Ioannidis
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 36% win probability (draw 31%, Estrela 31%). The final result was Estrela 2–2 Sporting CP. In 2 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
13
4
Shots on target
8
1.01
Actual xG
2.63
6
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
5
Corners
4
19
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
46'
ast. G. Catamo · R. Zalazar⚽
G. Doue
52'
59'
ast. R. Zalazar · F. Ioannidis⚽
61'
S. Andersen / F. Goncalves ↕
61'
L. Suarez / F. Ioannidis ↕
↕ S. Serra / Robinho
65'
67'
L. Suarez
⚽L. Antonetti · ast. I. Stoica
72'
↕ M. Scholze / J. Encada
74'
↕ I. Stoica / B. Souza
74'
78'
I. Fresneda / G. Vagiannidis ↕
78'
Luis Guilherme / G. Catamo ↕
82'
J. Derry / I. Doumbia ↕
⚽B. Souza · ast. Robinho
84'
↕ L. Antonetti / S. van Hooijdonk
89'
B. Souza
90'+2
90'+2
J. Derry
↕ A. Marcus / Alisson Souza
90'
Pre-match prediction
31.29%
Estrela
31.98%
X ←
36.74%
Sporting
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.98% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estrela
1.75
1.01
-0.74
Sporting
2.97
2.63
-0.34
Sporting CP dominated by xG (2.63 vs 1.01). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 5 15
2 Benfica Benfica 5 13
3 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5 13
4 Santa Clara Santa Clara 5 11
5 Arouca Arouca 5 10
6 Estrela Estrela 5 9
7 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 4 7
8 SC Braga SC Braga 4 7
9 Maritimo Maritimo 5 7
10 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 5 5
11 Alverca Alverca 6 5
12 Vitória SC Vitória SC 5 4
13 Nacional Nacional 6 4
14 Moreirense Moreirense 5 4
15 Famalicao Famalicao 5 3
16 Rio Ave Rio Ave 5 3
17 Estoril Estoril 5 2
18 Casa Pia Casa Pia 5 1
Lineups
Estrela Estrela 4-2-3-1
24 Léo Linck Léo Linck G 7.50
55 Rafa Soares Rafa Soares D 6.70
4 Bernardo Schappo Bernardo Schappo D 6.70
30 Luan Patrick Luan Patrick D 7.00
21 M. Scholze M. Scholze 74' D 6.20
39 Eddy Doue Eddy Doue M 6.90
78 Santiago Serra Santiago Serra 65' M 6.50
10 I. Stoica I. Stoica 1 👟 74' M 6.70
14 L. Zvonarek L. Zvonarek M 6.70
99 A. Marcus A. Marcus 89' M 5.90
37 L. Antonetti L. Antonetti 1 ⚽ 89' F 8.30
Bench
79 A. Chernev A. Chernev D
80 Alisson Alisson 6' F
93 B. Souza B. Souza 1 ⚽ 21' M 7.50
22 David Grilo David Grilo G
51 Diogo Pinto Diogo Pinto G
71 E. Pedro Vanga E. Pedro Vanga M
72 H. Poniewas H. Poniewas F
17 Jefferson Encada Jefferson Encada 21' D 6.90
3 L. Mincarelli Davin L. Mincarelli Davin D
8 Robinho Robinho 1 👟 30' M 6.90
9 S. van Hooijdonk S. van Hooijdonk 6' F
28 Tom Moustier Tom Moustier M
Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
1 Rui Silva Rui Silva G 6.20
50 Rodrigo Dias Rodrigo Dias D 6.90
25 Gonçalo Inácio Gonçalo Inácio D 6.60
72 Eduardo Quaresma Eduardo Quaresma D 8.50
13 G. Vagiannidis G. Vagiannidis 78' D 6.30
77 I. Doumbia I. Doumbia 82' M 6.50
5 Sergi Altimira Sergi Altimira M 7.30
58 Flávio Gonçalves Flávio Gonçalves 61' M 7.20
17 R. Zalazar R. Zalazar 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.20
10 Geny Catamo Geny Catamo 1 👟 78' M 6.30
7 F. Ioannidis F. Ioannidis 1 ⚽ 61' F 6.30
Bench
41 Diego Callai Diego Callai G
73 Eduardo Felicíssimo Eduardo Felicíssimo M
22 Iván Fresneda Iván Fresneda 17' D 6.20
28 J. Derry J. Derry 13' F 6.70
12 João Virgínia João Virgínia G
97 L. Suárez L. Suárez 34' F 6.20
31 Luis Guilherme Luis Guilherme 17' F 6.60
26 O. Diomande O. Diomande D
21 Pedro Lima Pedro Lima M
9 Rafael Ferreira Nel Rafael Ferreira Nel F
4 S. Andersen S. Andersen 34' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
R. Zalazar
R. Zalazar
M · Sporting
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 25 pass
Eduardo Quaresma
Eduardo Quaresma
D · Sporting
8.50
· 73 pass
L. Antonetti
L. Antonetti
F · Estrela
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 21 pass
Léo Linck
Léo Linck
G · Estrela
7.50
· 39 pass
B. Souza
B. Souza
M · Estrela
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 2 pass
Sergi Altimira
Sergi Altimira
M · Sporting
7.30
· 72 pass
Estrela Estrela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Léo Linck G 95 7.50 — — — 39 26% — — —
Rafa Soares D 95 6.70 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
Bernardo Schappo D 95 6.70 — — 1 38 34% 1 — —
Luan Patrick D 95 7.00 — — — 38 30% 2 — —
M. Scholze D 74 6.20 — — — 34 27% 5 — —
Eddy Doue M 95 6.90 — — — 31 26% 4 1 —
Santiago Serra M 65 6.50 — — — 29 22% 1 — —
I. Stoica M 74 6.70 — 1 1 19 18% — — —
L. Zvonarek M 95 6.70 — — 1 25 17% 2 — —
A. Marcus M 89 5.90 — — 2 22 16% — — —
L. Antonetti F 89 8.30 1 — 1 21 14% 2 — —
Alisson F 6 — — — — 3 2% — — —
B. Souza M 21 7.50 1 — 1 2 2% — 1 —
Jefferson Encada D 21 6.90 — — — 8 7% 1 — —
Robinho M 30 6.90 — 1 — 12 12% — — —
S. van Hooijdonk F 6 — — — — — — — — —
Sporting CP Sporting CP — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rui Silva G 95 6.20 — — — 16 14% — — —
Rodrigo Dias D 95 6.90 — — — 46 38% 4 — —
Gonçalo Inácio D 95 6.60 — — — 68 59% 1 — —
Eduardo Quaresma D 95 8.50 — — — 73 64% 4 — —
G. Vagiannidis D 78 6.30 — — — 31 30% — — —
I. Doumbia M 82 6.50 — — — 36 34% 1 — —
Sergi Altimira M 95 7.30 — — — 72 65% 7 — —
Flávio Gonçalves M 61 7.20 — — 3 31 27% 2 — —
R. Zalazar M 95 9.20 1 1 2 25 21% 1 — —
Geny Catamo M 78 6.30 — 1 1 23 18% — — —
F. Ioannidis F 61 6.30 1 — 7 5 4% — — —
Iván Fresneda D 17 6.20 — — — 3 3% 1 — —
J. Derry F 13 6.70 — — — 3 3% — 1 —
L. Suárez F 34 6.20 — — — 5 4% — 1 —
Luis Guilherme F 17 6.60 — — — 3 3% — — —
S. Andersen M 34 6.50 — — — 4 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The final score was Estrela 2–2 Sporting CP.
What did the model predict before Estrela vs Sporting CP?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Estrela win, 31% to a draw, and 36% to an Sporting CP win.