Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 30, 2026 02:30
G. Carrillo
55'
33'
(ast. Bruno Henrique)
Luiz Araujo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estudiantes L.P. a 39% win probability (draw 26%, Flamengo 34%). The final result was Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Flamengo. In 1 previous meetings, Estudiantes L.P. have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
5
1.81
Actual xG
1.29
4
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
8
Corners
2
13
Tackles
12
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
T. Palacios
20'
21'
J. Carrascal
/
G. de Arrascaeta
33'
ast. Bruno Henrique ·
Luiz Araujo⚽
F. Farias
38'
⚽G. Carrillo
55'
A. Medina
62'
62'
L. Jardim
62'
Emerson Royal
T. Palacios
62'
70'
G. Plata
/
Luiz Araujo
F. Farias
/ E. Cetre
74'
Gabriel Neves
74'
81'
Pedro
/
Bruno Henrique
81'
S. Niguez
/
Samuel Lino
L. Piovi
85'
Gabriel Neves
/ A. Castro
86'
G. Carrillo
/ A. Gaich
86'
T. Palacios
/ B. Aguirre
87'
Pre-match prediction
39.08%
Estudiantes
26.85%
X ←
34.07%
Flamengo
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.85%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.52
1.81
+0.29
1.38
1.29
-0.09
Estudiantes L.P. dominated by xG (1.81 vs 1.29).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
16
F. Muslera
G
F. Muslera
G
13
G. Benedetti
D
G. Benedetti
D
24
T. Palacios
D
T. Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
20
E. Meza
D
E. Meza
D
8
G. Neves
86'
M
G. Neves
86'
M
21
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
M
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
M
11
Facundo Farías
74'
M
Facundo Farías
74'
M
10
T. Palacios
87'
M
T. Palacios
87'
M
32
M. Amondarain
M
M. Amondarain
M
9
G. Carrillo
1 ⚽
86'
F
G. Carrillo
1 ⚽
86'
F
Bench
22
A. Castro
9'
M
A. Castro
9'
M
19
A. Gaich
9'
F
A. Gaich
9'
F
28
B. Aguirre
8'
F
B. Aguirre
8'
F
18
E. Cetré
16'
F
E. Cetré
16'
F
40
E. Mancuso
D
E. Mancuso
D
29
F. Pérez Escudero
F
F. Pérez Escudero
F
7
J. Sosa
M
J. Sosa
M
27
L. Alario
F
L. Alario
F
26
R. Funes Mori
D
R. Funes Mori
D
4
S. Núñez
D
S. Núñez
D
1
G
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
44
D
13
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
52
Evertton Araújo
M
Evertton Araújo
M
16
Samuel Lino
81'
M
Samuel Lino
81'
M
10
G. de Arrascaeta
21'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
21'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
1 ⚽
70'
M
Luiz Araújo
1 ⚽
70'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
1 👟
81'
F
Bruno Henrique
1 👟
81'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
11
Everton
F
Everton
F
19
G. Plata
20'
F
G. Plata
20'
F
15
J. Carrascal
69'
M
J. Carrascal
69'
M
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
18
N. de la Cruz
M
N. de la Cruz
M
9
Pedro
9'
F
Pedro
9'
F
Best on the pitch
Luiz Araújo
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 9 pass
F. Muslera
G · Estudiantes
7.50
· 31 pass
G. Carrillo
F · Estudiantes
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
G · Flamengo
7.30
· 28 pass
Alex Sandro
D · Flamengo
7.20
· 42 pass
L. González
D · Estudiantes
7.00
· 46 pass
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Muslera | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| G. Benedetti | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | — | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Meza | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Neves | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 39% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Ezequiel Piovi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Farías | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Palacios | M | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Carrillo | F | 86 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Castro | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| A. Gaich | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| B. Aguirre | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| E. Cetré | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 55 | 52% | — | — | — | |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | M | 70 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 81 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| G. Plata | F | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
The final score was Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Flamengo.
What did the model predict before Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Estudiantes L.P. win, 26% to a draw, and 34% to an Flamengo win.