Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 30, 2026 02:30
G. Carrillo
55'
33'
(ast. Bruno Henrique)
Luiz Araujo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estudiantes L.P. a 39% win probability (draw 26%, Flamengo 34%). The final result was Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Flamengo. In 1 previous meetings, Estudiantes L.P. have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
5
1.81
Actual xG
1.29
4
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
8
Corners
2
13
Tackles
12
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
T. Palacios
20'
21'
J. Carrascal
/
G. de Arrascaeta
33'
ast. Bruno Henrique ·
Luiz Araujo⚽
F. Farias
38'
⚽G. Carrillo
55'
A. Medina
62'
62'
L. Jardim
62'
Emerson Royal
T. Palacios
62'
70'
G. Plata
/
Luiz Araujo
F. Farias
/ E. Cetre
74'
Gabriel Neves
74'
81'
Pedro
/
Bruno Henrique
81'
S. Niguez
/
Samuel Lino
L. Piovi
85'
Gabriel Neves
/ A. Castro
86'
G. Carrillo
/ A. Gaich
86'
T. Palacios
/ B. Aguirre
87'
Pre-match prediction
39.08%
Estudiantes
26.85%
X ←
34.07%
Flamengo
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.85%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.52
1.81
+0.29
1.38
1.29
-0.09
Estudiantes L.P. dominated by xG (1.81 vs 1.29).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
16
Fernando Muslera
G
Fernando Muslera
G
13
Gastón Benedetti
D
Gastón Benedetti
D
24
Tomás Palacios
D
Tomás Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
20
Eric Meza
D
Eric Meza
D
8
Gabriel Neves
86'
M
Gabriel Neves
86'
M
21
Ezequiel Piovi
M
Ezequiel Piovi
M
11
Facundo Farías
74'
M
Facundo Farías
74'
M
10
Tiago Palacios
87'
M
Tiago Palacios
87'
M
32
M. Amondarain
M
M. Amondarain
M
9
Guido Carrillo
1 ⚽
86'
F
Guido Carrillo
1 ⚽
86'
F
Bench
19
Adolfo Gaich
9'
F
Adolfo Gaich
9'
F
22
Alexis Castro
9'
M
Alexis Castro
9'
M
28
Brian Aguirre
8'
F
Brian Aguirre
8'
F
18
Edwuin Cetré
16'
F
Edwuin Cetré
16'
F
40
Eros Mancuso
D
Eros Mancuso
D
29
Fabricio Pérez
F
Fabricio Pérez
F
7
José Sosa
M
José Sosa
M
27
Lucas Alario
F
Lucas Alario
F
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
4
Santiago Núñez
D
Santiago Núñez
D
1
G
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
44
D
13
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
52
Evertton Araujo
M
Evertton Araujo
M
16
Samuel Lino
81'
M
Samuel Lino
81'
M
10
G. de Arrascaeta
21'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
21'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
1 ⚽
70'
M
Luiz Araújo
1 ⚽
70'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
1 👟
81'
F
Bruno Henrique
1 👟
81'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
11
Everton
F
Everton
F
19
Gonzalo Plata
20'
F
Gonzalo Plata
20'
F
15
Jorge Carrascal
69'
M
Jorge Carrascal
69'
M
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
18
N. de la Cruz
M
N. de la Cruz
M
9
Pedro
9'
F
Pedro
9'
F
Best on the pitch
Luiz Araújo
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 9 pass
Fernando Muslera
G · Estudiantes
7.50
· 31 pass
Guido Carrillo
F · Estudiantes
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
G · Flamengo
7.30
· 28 pass
Alex Sandro
D · Flamengo
7.20
· 42 pass
L. González
D · Estudiantes
7.00
· 46 pass
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Muslera | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Gastón Benedetti | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | — | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Eric Meza | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Neves | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 39% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Ezequiel Piovi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Farías | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tiago Palacios | M | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Guido Carrillo | F | 86 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Adolfo Gaich | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Castro | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Brian Aguirre | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Edwuin Cetré | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 55 | 52% | — | — | — | |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | M | 70 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 81 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 20 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
The final score was Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Flamengo.
What did the model predict before Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Estudiantes L.P. win, 26% to a draw, and 34% to an Flamengo win.