✗Model wrong — prediction Estudiantes L.P., result Racing Club wins
89'
(ast. G. Rojas)
S. Sosa
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Estudiantes L.P. a 59% win probability (draw 24%, Racing Club 16%). The final result was Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 Racing Club.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
2
0.82
Actual xG
0.98
1
Saves
4
48%
Possession
52%
1
Corners
4
15
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
28'
B. Zuculini
/
A. Forneris
L. Piovi
38'
40'
M. Zaracho
46'
A. Fernandez
Gabriel Neves
/ A. Castro
56'
66'
72'
B. Zuculini
78'
M. Miljevic
/
A. Fernandez
79'
S. Solari
/
M. Zaracho
F. Farias
/ B. Aguirre
79'
G. Carrillo
/ A. Gaich
79'
84'
M. Di Cesare
89'
ast. G. Rojas ·
S. Sosa⚽
90'+1
F. Pardo
/
M. Rojo
90'+2
I. Rodriguez
/
T. Conechny
T. Palacios
90'+2
L. Piovi
/ J. Sosa
90'+2
E. Mancuso
/ L. Alario
90'+3
90'+5
G. Rojas
Pre-match prediction
59.57%
Estudiantes
24.34%
X
16.09%
Racing ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Racing Club)
16.09%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.59
0.82
-0.77
0.56
0.98
+0.42
xG dominance was balanced (0.82 – 0.98).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
16
Fernando Muslera
G
Fernando Muslera
G
24
T. Palacios
D
T. Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
4
Santiago Núñez
D
Santiago Núñez
D
40
Eros Mancuso
89'
D
Eros Mancuso
89'
D
21
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
89'
M
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
89'
M
18
Edwuin Cetré
M
Edwuin Cetré
M
8
Gabriel Neves
56'
M
Gabriel Neves
56'
M
11
Facundo Farías
79'
M
Facundo Farías
79'
M
32
M. Amondarain
M
M. Amondarain
M
9
Guido Carrillo
79'
F
Guido Carrillo
79'
F
Bench
19
Adolfo Gaich
11'
F
Adolfo Gaich
11'
F
22
Alexis Castro
34'
M
Alexis Castro
34'
M
28
Brian Aguirre
11'
F
Brian Aguirre
11'
F
1
Fabricio Iacovich
G
Fabricio Iacovich
G
29
Fabricio Pérez
F
Fabricio Pérez
F
13
Gastón Benedetti
D
Gastón Benedetti
D
36
Joaquin Pereyra
D
Joaquin Pereyra
D
7
J. Sosa
1'
M
J. Sosa
1'
M
27
Lucas Alario
1'
F
Lucas Alario
1'
F
39
Lucas Cornejo
M
Lucas Cornejo
M
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
35
Valente Pierani
D
Valente Pierani
D
25
F. Cambeses
G
F. Cambeses
G
27
G. Rojas
1 👟
D
G. Rojas
1 👟
D
6
M. Rojo
89'
D
M. Rojo
89'
D
3
M. Di Cesare
D
M. Di Cesare
D
15
Gastón Martirena
D
Gastón Martirena
D
13
Santiago Sosa
1 ⚽
M
Santiago Sosa
1 ⚽
M
24
A. Fernández
78'
M
A. Fernández
78'
M
8
Alan Forneris
28'
M
Alan Forneris
28'
M
11
Matías Zaracho
79'
M
Matías Zaracho
79'
M
17
Tomás Conechny
89'
F
Tomás Conechny
89'
F
9
A. Martínez
F
A. Martínez
F
Bench
2
A. García
D
A. García
D
36
Bruno Zuculini
62'
M
Bruno Zuculini
62'
M
7
Duván Vergara
F
Duván Vergara
F
18
Franco Pardo
1'
D
Franco Pardo
1'
D
44
Gonzalo Sosa
M
Gonzalo Sosa
M
19
Ignacio Rodríguez
1'
M
Ignacio Rodríguez
1'
M
30
Matías Tagliamonte
G
Matías Tagliamonte
G
10
Matko Miljevic
12'
M
Matko Miljevic
12'
M
23
Nazareno Colombo
D
Nazareno Colombo
D
28
Santiago Solari
11'
F
Santiago Solari
11'
F
34
Tobías Rubio
D
Tobías Rubio
D
58
Tomás Pérez
F
Tomás Pérez
F
Best on the pitch
Santiago Sosa
M · Racing
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
M. Rojo
D · Racing
7.50
· 44 pass
G. Rojas
D · Racing
7.50
1 👟
· 31 pass
F. Cambeses
G · Racing
7.50
· 39 pass
T. Palacios
D · Estudiantes
7.30
· 39 pass
M. Di Cesare
D · Racing
7.30
· 42 pass
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Muslera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 28% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Núñez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| Eros Mancuso | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Ezequiel Piovi | M | 89 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 34% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Edwuin Cetré | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 18 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Neves | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Farías | M | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Guido Carrillo | F | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Adolfo Gaich | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Castro | M | 34 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Brian Aguirre | F | 11 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Sosa | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Alario | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Racing Club — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cambeses | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 28% | — | — | — |
| G. Rojas | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Rojo | D | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 44 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Di Cesare | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gastón Martirena | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Sosa | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Fernández | M | 78 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Alan Forneris | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Matías Zaracho | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 18% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Tomás Conechny | F | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Martínez | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zuculini | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Franco Pardo | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Rodríguez | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matko Miljevic | M | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Solari | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estudiantes L.P. vs Racing Club?
The final score was Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 Racing Club.
What did the model predict before Estudiantes L.P. vs Racing Club?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Estudiantes L.P. win, 24% to a draw, and 16% to an Racing Club win.