Ethiopia - Mozambique
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.12%
Win
Ethiopia
36.81%
Draw
27.07%
Win
Mozambique
0.76
0.57
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(18.48%)
1X2 Result
1
36%
X
37%
2
27%
Double Chance
1X
73%
X2
64%
12
63%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ethiopia a 36% win probability, against 36% for a draw and 27% for Mozambique. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ethiopia and 0.6 for Mozambique (total 1.3), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.48% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
2L
1W
1D
0L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.5
0.5
Conceded
1.0
3.0
Shots OT
3.5
5.0
Corners
2.0
39%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
25%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
50%
0%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Ethiopia
Mozambique →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.3% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
Playing profile
Ethiopia
Attack
24
Defence
83
Form
19
Mozambique
Attack
34
Defence
53
Form
37
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group J
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Senegal
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Mozambique
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
Sudan
|
2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Ethiopia
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group J
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #2 |
| → Ethiopia | #4 | #1 |
| → Draw | #4 | #1 |
| → Mozambique | #4 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
The model gives Ethiopia a 36% win probability, 36% for a draw, and 27% for an Mozambique win.
How many goals are expected in Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
Expected goals: Ethiopia 0.8, Mozambique 0.6 (total 1.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.48%.