Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
· Group Stage - 2
September 29, 2026 15:00
11'
(ast. Nicolas Jackson)
Ibrahim Mbaye
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ethiopia a 36% win probability (draw 26%, Senegal 36%). The final result was Ethiopia 0–1 Senegal.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
1
Shots on target
3
0
Saves
1
39%
Possession
61%
5
Corners
2
22
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
11'
ast. Nicolas Jackson ·
Ibrahim Mbaye⚽
19'
Pape Gueye
Abed Yalew
/ Binyam Belay
45'
48'
Malang Sarr
55'
Idrissa Gueye
/
Assane Diao Diaoune
B. Fikru
/ F Gebre
59'
65'
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
/
Pape Gueye
65'
Issa Soumaré
/
Abdallah Sima
70'
Idrissa Gueye
Canaan Markneh
/ Dukele Dawa Hotessa
82'
Gathouch Panom
/ Carlos Damtew
82'
89'
Pape Moussa Fall
/
Nicolas Jackson
89'
Lamine Sy
90'+1
Lamine Sy
/
Ibrahim Mbaye
Yared Bayeh
90'
Pre-match prediction
36.97%
Ethiopia
26.22%
X
36.81%
Senegal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Senegal)
36.81%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.85
—
—
1.34
—
—
Lineups
1
46'
G
14
46'
D
15
46'
D
16
46'
D
4
46'
D
21
46'
M
6
46'
M
17
46'
M
8
46'
M
19
46'
M
10
46'
F
1
Y. Diouf
G
Y. Diouf
G
27
M. Sarr
D
M. Sarr
D
19
M. Niakhaté
D
M. Niakhaté
D
4
Sadibou Sané
D
Sadibou Sané
D
25
E. Diouf
M
E. Diouf
M
8
L. Camara
M
L. Camara
M
26
P. Gueye
65'
M
P. Gueye
65'
M
20
I. Mbaye
1 ⚽
M
I. Mbaye
1 ⚽
M
21
A. Sima
65'
F
A. Sima
65'
F
11
N. Jackson
1 👟
89'
F
N. Jackson
1 👟
89'
F
7
Assane Diao
55'
F
Assane Diao
55'
F
Bench
22
Bara Ndiaye
25'
M
Bara Ndiaye
25'
M
9
B. Dia
F
B. Dia
F
30
D. Thiam
G
D. Thiam
G
5
I. Gueye
35'
M
I. Gueye
35'
M
12
I. Soumaré
25'
F
I. Soumaré
25'
F
3
K. Koulibaly
D
K. Koulibaly
D
6
L. Sy
D
L. Sy
D
23
M. Diaw
G
M. Diaw
G
2
M. Sarr
D
M. Sarr
D
28
N. Mendy
D
N. Mendy
D
29
P. Fall
1'
F
P. Fall
1'
F
17
P. Sarr
M
P. Sarr
M
Best on the pitch
I. Mbaye
M · Senegal
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 30 pass
N. Jackson
F · Senegal
7.49
1 👟
2 shots
· 9 pass
Sadibou Sané
D · Senegal
7.38
· 59 pass
M. Niakhaté
D · Senegal
7.19
· 57 pass
I. Soumaré
F · Senegal
7.13
· 9 pass
M. Sarr
D · Senegal
7.03
· 81 pass
Ethiopia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| M | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| M | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| M | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| M | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| M | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — | |
| F | 46 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
Senegal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Diouf | G | 90 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Sarr | D | 90 | 7.03 | — | — | 0 | 81 | 72% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Niakhaté | D | 90 | 7.19 | — | — | 0 | 57 | 54% | 0 | — | — |
| Sadibou Sané | D | 90 | 7.38 | — | — | 0 | 59 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Diouf | M | 90 | 6.85 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 27% | 6 | — | — |
| L. Camara | M | 90 | 7.01 | — | — | 0 | 59 | 51% | 6 | — | — |
| P. Gueye | M | 65 | 6.23 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 24% | 0 | 1 | — |
| I. Mbaye | M | 91 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 30 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Sima | F | 65 | 6.22 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 89 | 7.49 | — | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Assane Diao | F | 55 | 6.57 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| Bara Ndiaye | M | 25 | 6.79 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Gueye | M | 35 | 6.67 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 0 | 1 | — |
| I. Soumaré | F | 25 | 7.13 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Fall | F | 1 | 6.47 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Ethiopia vs Senegal?
The final score was Ethiopia 0–1 Senegal.
What did the model predict before Ethiopia vs Senegal?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Ethiopia win, 26% to a draw, and 36% to an Senegal win.