Ethiopia - Senegal
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 29, 2026 15:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.67%
Win
Ethiopia
29.54%
Draw
29.79%
Win
Senegal
1.74
1.25
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.45%)
1X2 Result
1
41%
X
30%
2
30%
Double Chance
1X
70%
X2
59%
12
71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ethiopia a 40% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Senegal. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ethiopia and 1.2 for Senegal (total 3.0), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.45% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Ethiopia
Senegal →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Ethiopia
Attack
35
Defence
92
Form
68
Senegal
Attack
49
Defence
62
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ethiopia vs Senegal?
The model gives Ethiopia a 40% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 29% for an Senegal win.
How many goals are expected in Ethiopia vs Senegal?
Expected goals: Ethiopia 1.7, Senegal 1.2 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Ethiopia vs Senegal?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.45%.