Premier League
· Regular Season - 35
May 04, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester City, result Pareggio
T. Barry
68'
J. O'Brien
(ast. J. Garner)
73'
T. Barry
(ast. M. Rohl)
81'
43'
(ast. R. Cherki)
J. Doku
83'
(ast. M. Kovacic)
E. Haaland
90'+7
(ast. M. Guehi)
J. Doku
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 60% win probability (draw 18%, Everton 21%). The final result was Everton 3–3 Manchester City. In 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Manchester City.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
4
2.77
Actual xG
1.37
1
Saves
3
25%
Possession
75%
5
Corners
9
24
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
43'
ast. R. Cherki ·
J. Doku⚽
M. Keane
45'
Beto
48'
J. Tarkowski
53'
Beto
/ T. Barry
64'
⚽T. Barry
68'
⚽J. O'Brien
· ast. J. Garner
73'
74'
G. Donnarumma
74'
P. Foden
/
A. Semenyo
75'
M. Kovacic
/
Nico
⚽T. Barry
· ast. M. Rohl
81'
83'
ast. M. Kovacic ·
E. Haaland⚽
J. O'Brien
86'
87'
O. Marmoush
/
B. Silva
K. Dewsbury-Hall
/ C. Alcaraz
90'+2
M. Rohl
/ N. Patterson
90'+2
T. Iroegbunam
/ H. Armstrong
90'+6
90'+7
ast. M. Guehi ·
J. Doku⚽
Pre-match prediction
21.23%
Everton
18.69%
X ←
60.08%
Manchester
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.69%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.31
2.77
+1.46
2.34
1.37
-0.97
Everton dominated by xG (2.77 vs 1.37).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Jordan Pickford
G
Jordan Pickford
G
16
D
5
Michael Keane
D
Michael Keane
D
6
James Tarkowski
D
James Tarkowski
D
15
Jake O'Brien
1 ⚽
D
Jake O'Brien
1 ⚽
D
37
J. Garner
1 👟
M
J. Garner
1 👟
M
42
Tim Iroegbunam
M
Tim Iroegbunam
M
10
Iliman Ndiaye
M
Iliman Ndiaye
M
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
M
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
M
34
Merlin Röhl
1 👟
M
Merlin Röhl
1 👟
M
9
Beto
64'
F
Beto
64'
F
Bench
24
Carlos Alcaraz
5'
M
Carlos Alcaraz
5'
M
7
Dwight McNeil
F
Dwight McNeil
F
23
Séamus Coleman
D
Séamus Coleman
D
11
Thierno Barry
2 ⚽
33'
F
Thierno Barry
2 ⚽
33'
F
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
33
Nico O'Reilly
D
15
M. Guéhi
1 👟
D
M. Guéhi
1 👟
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
D
Matheus Nunes
D
20
Bernardo Silva
87'
M
Bernardo Silva
87'
M
14
Nico
75'
M
11
Jérémy Doku
2 ⚽
M
Jérémy Doku
2 ⚽
M
10
Rayan Cherki
1 👟
M
Rayan Cherki
1 👟
M
42
Antoine Semenyo
74'
M
Antoine Semenyo
74'
M
9
Erling Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Erling Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
8
Mateo Kovačić
1 👟
22'
M
Mateo Kovačić
1 👟
22'
M
6
Nathan Aké
D
Nathan Aké
D
7
Omar Marmoush
10'
F
Omar Marmoush
10'
F
47
Phil Foden
23'
M
Phil Foden
23'
M
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
4
Tijjani Reijnders
M
Tijjani Reijnders
M
Best on the pitch
Jérémy Doku
M · Manchester
9.90
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 48 pass
Thierno Barry
F · Everton
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 3 pass
Erling Haaland
F · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
Mateo Kovačić
M · Manchester
7.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 19 pass
Michael Keane
D · Everton
7.00
· 28 pass
Tim Iroegbunam
M · Everton
7.00
· 19 pass
Everton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — | |
| Michael Keane | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| James Tarkowski | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jake O'Brien | D | 97 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Garner | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 21 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Tim Iroegbunam | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 6 | — | — |
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| Merlin Röhl | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 9 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Beto | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Alcaraz | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Thierno Barry | F | 33 | 8.90 | 2 | — | 2 | 3 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 94 | 86% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 57% | 3 | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 72 | 63% | 5 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 82 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Nico | M | 75 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 58 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 97 | 9.90 | 2 | — | 2 | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 4 | 66 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Erling Haaland | F | 97 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 22 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Omar Marmoush | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | M | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Everton vs Manchester City?
The final score was Everton 3–3 Manchester City.
What did the model predict before Everton vs Manchester City?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Everton win, 18% to a draw, and 60% to an Manchester City win.