✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester City, result Draw
T. Barry
68'
J. O'Brien
(ast. J. Garner)
73'
T. Barry
(ast. M. Rohl)
81'
43'
(ast. R. Cherki)
J. Doku
83'
(ast. M. Kovacic)
E. Haaland
90'+7
(ast. M. Guehi)
J. Doku
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 60% win probability (draw 18%, Everton 21%). The final result was Everton 3–3 Manchester City. In 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Manchester City.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
4
2.77
Actual xG
1.37
1
Saves
3
25%
Possession
75%
5
Corners
9
24
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
43'
ast. R. Cherki ·
J. Doku⚽
M. Keane
45'
Beto
48'
J. Tarkowski
53'
Beto
/ T. Barry
64'
⚽T. Barry
68'
⚽J. O'Brien
· ast. J. Garner
73'
74'
G. Donnarumma
74'
P. Foden
/
A. Semenyo
75'
M. Kovacic
/
Nico
⚽T. Barry
· ast. M. Rohl
81'
83'
ast. M. Kovacic ·
E. Haaland⚽
J. O'Brien
86'
87'
O. Marmoush
/
B. Silva
K. Dewsbury-Hall
/ C. Alcaraz
90'+2
M. Rohl
/ N. Patterson
90'+2
T. Iroegbunam
/ H. Armstrong
90'+6
90'+7
ast. M. Guehi ·
J. Doku⚽
Pre-match prediction
21.23%
Everton
18.69%
X ←
60.08%
Manchester
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.69%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.31
2.77
+1.46
2.34
1.37
-0.97
Everton dominated by xG (2.77 vs 1.37).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Jordan Pickford
G
Jordan Pickford
G
16
D
5
Michael Keane
D
Michael Keane
D
6
James Tarkowski
D
James Tarkowski
D
15
J. O'Brien
1 ⚽
D
J. O'Brien
1 ⚽
D
37
J. Garner
1 👟
M
J. Garner
1 👟
M
42
Tim Iroegbunam
M
Tim Iroegbunam
M
10
I. Ndiaye
M
I. Ndiaye
M
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
M
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
M
34
Merlin Röhl
1 👟
M
Merlin Röhl
1 👟
M
9
Beto
64'
F
Beto
64'
F
Bench
24
Carlos Alcaraz
5'
M
Carlos Alcaraz
5'
M
7
Dwight McNeil
F
Dwight McNeil
F
23
Séamus Coleman
D
Séamus Coleman
D
11
Thierno Barry
2 ⚽
33'
F
Thierno Barry
2 ⚽
33'
F
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
33
Nico O'Reilly
D
Nico O'Reilly
D
15
M. Guéhi
1 👟
D
M. Guéhi
1 👟
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
D
Matheus Nunes
D
20
Bernardo Silva
87'
M
Bernardo Silva
87'
M
14
Nico González
75'
M
Nico González
75'
M
11
J. Doku
2 ⚽
M
J. Doku
2 ⚽
M
10
R. Cherki
1 👟
M
R. Cherki
1 👟
M
42
A. Semenyo
74'
M
A. Semenyo
74'
M
9
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
8
Mateo Kovačić
1 👟
22'
M
Mateo Kovačić
1 👟
22'
M
6
Nathan Aké
D
Nathan Aké
D
7
Omar Marmoush
10'
F
Omar Marmoush
10'
F
47
P. Foden
23'
M
P. Foden
23'
M
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
4
T. Reijnders
M
T. Reijnders
M
Best on the pitch
J. Doku
M · Manchester
9.90
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 48 pass
Thierno Barry
F · Everton
8.90
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 3 pass
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
Mateo Kovačić
M · Manchester
7.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 19 pass
Michael Keane
D · Everton
7.00
· 28 pass
Tim Iroegbunam
M · Everton
7.00
· 19 pass
Everton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — | |
| Michael Keane | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| James Tarkowski | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. O'Brien | D | 97 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Garner | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 21 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Tim Iroegbunam | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 6 | — | — |
| I. Ndiaye | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| Merlin Röhl | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 9 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Beto | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Alcaraz | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Thierno Barry | F | 33 | 8.90 | 2 | — | 2 | 3 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 94 | 86% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 57% | 3 | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 72 | 63% | 5 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 82 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Nico González | M | 75 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 58 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 97 | 9.90 | 2 | — | 2 | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Cherki | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 4 | 66 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Semenyo | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Haaland | F | 97 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 22 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Omar Marmoush | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| P. Foden | M | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Everton vs Manchester City?
The final score was Everton 3–3 Manchester City.
What did the model predict before Everton vs Manchester City?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Everton win, 18% to a draw, and 60% to an Manchester City win.