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Excelsior Maassluis - Heerenveen

KNVB Beker October 28, 2026 21:00 Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
vs
Heerenveen
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 12.5°C 💨 13 km/h · Maassluis
⚡ Pre-match analysis
37.54%
Win
Excelsior Maassluis
28.33%
Draw
34.13%
Win
Heerenveen
3.63
Expected xG
2.01

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.66%)
1X2 Result
1 38%
X 28%
2 34%
Double Chance
1X 66%
X2 63%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Excelsior Maassluis a 37% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Heerenveen. Expected goals are 3.6 for Excelsior Maassluis and 2.0 for Heerenveen (total 5.6), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.66% probability.

Season Stats

Excelsior Maassluis
3W 1D 1L
Heerenveen
3W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
2.5
1.8
Conceded
1.8
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
100%
40%
O 2.5
100%
60%
BTTS
75%
40%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in KNVB Beker. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
59%
O 3.5
59%
BTTS
Excelsior Maassluis
1W 0D 1L · at home
Heerenveen
2W 0D 1L · away
1.5
gls/g
2.3
3.5
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
67%
50%
Win or Draw
67%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
67%
50%
BTTS
67%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Excelsior Maassluis Heerenveen →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4%
2 2.3% 4.7% 4.7% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
3 2.8% 5.7% 5.7% 3.8% 1.9% 0.8%
4 2.6% 5.2% 5.2% 3.5% 1.7% 0.7%
5 1.9% 3.8% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5%

Recent form

Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis
W Sportlust '46 0–2
D ADO '20 1–1
L Ajax 2–7
W Excelsior 1–0
W HZVV 1–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Heerenveen Heerenveen
L PSV Eindhoven 4–1
W Waalwijk 3–1
W Feyenoord 2–3
W VVV Venlo 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis
Attack
59
Defence
78
Form
75
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Attack
54
Defence
64
Form
57
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
The model gives Excelsior Maassluis a 37% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 34% for an Heerenveen win.
How many goals are expected in Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Expected goals: Excelsior Maassluis 3.6, Heerenveen 2.0 (total 5.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.66%.