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Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 10 October 24, 2026 16:00 Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Falkirk
#7 · 12 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Kilmarnock
#11 · 8 pts
Cathal McCarthy 29' (og)
Jacob Murrell (ast. Ryan Strain) 38'
George Stanger 68' (og)
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Falkirk a 37% win probability (draw 34%, Kilmarnock 28%). The final result was Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock. In 3 previous meetings, Falkirk have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Kilmarnock.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
0
2.08
Actual xG
1.89
0
Saves
7
63%
Possession
37%
9
Corners
7
11
Tackles
10
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Cathal McCarthy (og)
29'
⚽Jacob Murrell · ast. Ryan Strain
38'
46'
George Stanger
62'
Ieuan Gwyn Owen / Greg Kiltie ↕
67'
Nicky Clescenco / Erik Ring ↕
67'
Mark O'Hara / Aaron Tshibola ↕
67'
Jamie Brandon
⚽George Stanger (og)
68'
76'
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara / Cathal McCarthy ↕
76'
Djenairo Daniels / Joe Hugill ↕
↕ Ethan Ross / Conor McLeod
83'
↕ Jacob Murrell / Ben Parkinson
83'
↕ Owen Eames / Calvin Fodrey
84'
↕ Finley Frank Barbrook / Finn Yeats
86'
↕ Deniss Meļņiks / Craig Sibbald
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
37.56%
Falkirk ←
34.39%
X
28.05%
Kilmarnock
we assigned to the actual result (Falkirk) 37.56% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Falkirk
0.75
2.08
+1.33
Kilmarnock
0.59
1.89
+1.3
xG dominance was balanced (2.08 – 1.89). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Celtic Celtic 10 27
2 Rangers Rangers 10 23
3 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 10 19
4 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 10 15
5 Dundee Dundee 10 14
6 ST Mirren ST Mirren 10 13
7 Falkirk Falkirk 10 12
8 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 10 12
9 Aberdeen Aberdeen 10 11
10 Motherwell Motherwell 10 8
11 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 10 8
12 Hibernian Hibernian 10 7
Lineups
Falkirk Falkirk 4-2-3-1
19 S. Bain S. Bain G 6.18
3 L. McCann L. McCann D 6.09
5 L. Henderson L. Henderson D 6.32
15 L. Neilson L. Neilson D 6.77
22 R. Strain R. Strain 1 👟 D 7.35
16 Finley Frank Barbrook Finley Frank Barbrook 86' M 6.57
8 B. Spencer B. Spencer M 6.63
42 Owen Eames Owen Eames 84' M 6.77
21 D. Meļņiks D. Meļņiks 89' M 6.20
23 E. Ross E. Ross 83' M 6.55
24 J. Murrell J. Murrell 1 ⚽ 83' F 8.11
Bench
7 Ben Parkinson Ben Parkinson 7' F 6.68
99 C. Fodrey C. Fodrey 6' M 6.89
27 C. McLeod C. McLeod 7' M 6.53
10 C. Sibbald C. Sibbald 1' M 0.00
14 F. Yeats F. Yeats 4' M 6.40
4 J. McMillan J. McMillan D 0.00
1 N. Hogarth N. Hogarth G 0.00
9 R. MacIver R. MacIver F 0.00
17 S. Tanser S. Tanser D 0.00
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1
12 C. Ferrie C. Ferrie G 7.23
21 M. Schjønning-Larsen M. Schjønning-Larsen D 5.87
14 G. Stanger G. Stanger 1 ⚽ D 4.82
4 C. McCarthy C. McCarthy 1 ⚽ 76' D 4.37
2 J. Brandon J. Brandon D 4.76
18 T. Lowery T. Lowery M 6.23
36 A. Tshibola A. Tshibola 67' M 5.89
11 G. Kiltie G. Kiltie 62' M 5.65
10 T. John-Jules T. John-Jules M 5.55
8 E. Ring E. Ring 67' M 6.13
9 J. Hugill J. Hugill 76' F 6.46
Bench
29 D. Daniels D. Daniels 14' F 6.43
27 I. Owen I. Owen 28' F 6.07
19 J. Meier J. Meier D 0.00
3 Michael-John Kamson-Kamara Michael-John Kamson-Kamara 14' D 5.97
5 M. O'Hara M. O'Hara 23' M 5.79
20 N. Cleșcenco N. Cleșcenco 23' F 6.28
58 N. Mantl N. Mantl G 0.00
6 R. Deas R. Deas D 0.00
7 R. McKenzie R. McKenzie M 0.00
Best on the pitch
J. Murrell
J. Murrell
F · Falkirk
8.11
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
R. Strain
R. Strain
D · Falkirk
7.35
1 👟
2 shots · 39 pass
C. Ferrie
C. Ferrie
G · Kilmarnock
7.23
· 37 pass
C. Fodrey
C. Fodrey
M · Falkirk
6.89
· 1 pass
L. Neilson
L. Neilson
D · Falkirk
6.77
1 shots · 24 pass
Owen Eames
Owen Eames
M · Falkirk
6.77
3 shots · 13 pass
Falkirk Falkirk — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Bain G 90 6.18 — — 0 35 18% 0 — —
L. McCann D 90 6.09 — — 1 26 17% 2 — —
L. Henderson D 90 6.32 — — 1 41 28% 0 — —
L. Neilson D 90 6.77 — — 1 24 19% 2 — —
R. Strain D 90 7.35 — 1 2 39 25% 0 — —
Finley Frank Barbrook M 86 6.57 — — 2 28 23% 2 — —
B. Spencer M 90 6.63 — — 2 30 21% 3 — —
Owen Eames M 84 6.77 — — 3 13 12% 1 — —
D. Meļņiks M 89 6.20 — — 1 31 19% 0 — —
E. Ross M 83 6.55 — — 1 19 13% 1 — —
J. Murrell F 83 8.11 1 — 4 11 6% 0 — —
Ben Parkinson F 7 6.68 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
C. Fodrey M 6 6.89 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
C. McLeod M 7 6.53 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
C. Sibbald M 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
F. Yeats M 4 6.40 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Ferrie G 90 7.23 — — 0 37 28% 0 — —
M. Schjønning-Larsen D 90 5.87 — — 1 26 20% 0 — —
G. Stanger D 90 4.82 1 — 1 32 18% 4 1 —
C. McCarthy D 76 4.37 1 — 1 46 27% 0 — —
J. Brandon D 90 4.76 — — 0 31 19% 0 1 —
T. Lowery M 90 6.23 — — 1 43 36% 2 — —
A. Tshibola M 67 5.89 — — 1 34 28% 1 — —
G. Kiltie M 62 5.65 — — 0 22 15% 0 — —
T. John-Jules M 90 5.55 — — 2 17 11% 2 — —
E. Ring M 67 6.13 — — 1 9 7% 1 — —
J. Hugill F 76 6.46 — — 1 11 7% 0 — —
D. Daniels F 14 6.43 — — 0 3 1% 0 — —
I. Owen F 28 6.07 — — 1 6 2% 0 — —
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara D 14 5.97 — — 0 5 3% 0 — —
M. O'Hara M 23 5.79 — — 0 6 3% 0 — —
N. Cleșcenco F 23 6.28 — — 0 4 2% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
The final score was Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock.
What did the model predict before Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
The model assigned 37% probability to a Falkirk win, 34% to a draw, and 28% to an Kilmarnock win.