Famalicao 1–4 Alverca — pre-match prediction — Primeira Liga — October 12, 2026

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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8 October 12, 2026 21:15 Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicao

Famalicao

#11 · 10 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Alverca

#8 · 11 pts

Víctor Rofino Gordo (ast. Marcos Peña) 39'

14' Francisco Chiquinho

56' (ast. Diogo Spencer) Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos

77' (ast. Mateus Oliveira Mendes) Vivaldo Semedo

(pen.) 85' André Vidigal

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Famalicao a 38% win probability (draw 31%, Alverca 29%). The final result was Famalicao 1–4 Alverca. In 2 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Alverca.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.40

Actual xG

2.92

Saves

65%

Possession

35%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Pedro Bondo Francisco

11'

Víctor Rofino Gordo

13'

14'

Francisco Chiquinho⚽

↕ Matheus Mattara Colombo / Leonardo Realpe

20'

34'

Francisco Chissumba

Mathias De Amorim

37'

⚽Víctor Rofino Gordo · ast. Marcos Peña

39'

45'+2

Diogo Spencer

56'

ast. Diogo Spencer · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos⚽

↕ Tamás Szűcs / Tom Van De Looi

65'

↕ Pedro Bondo Francisco / Patricio Salas

65'

↕ Marcos Peña / Pedro Santos

65'

66'

André Vidigal / Dawda Camara Sankharé ↕

66'

Zé Rafael / Davy Gui ↕

74'

Matheus Franca / Francisco Chiquinho ↕

74'

Vivaldo Semedo / Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ↕

77'

ast. Mateus Oliveira Mendes · Vivaldo Semedo⚽

↕ Georgios Koutsias / Umar Abubakar

78'

80'

E. Jemide / Isaac James ↕

85'

(pen.) André Vidigal⚽

Pre-match prediction

38.67%

Famalicao

31.38%

29.95%

Alverca ←

we assigned to the actual result (Alverca) 29.95% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Famalicao

0.98

0.40

-0.58

Alverca

0.89

2.92

+2.03

Alverca dominated by xG (2.92 vs 0.40). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	27
2	Benfica	9	22
3	Sporting CP	9	18
4	Santa Clara	9	18
5	Arouca	9	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	14
8	Alverca	9	11
9	SC Braga	9	11
10	Moreirense	9	11
11	Famalicao	9	10
12	Estrela	9	10
13	Vitória SC	9	8
14	Maritimo	9	8
15	Nacional	9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	7
17	Rio Ave	9	7
18	Estoril	9	2

Lineups

Famalicao 4-2-3-1

L. Carević G 5.75

Pedro Francisco 65' D 5.50

Víctor Rofino 1 ⚽ D 6.79

M. Mattara 20' D 6.23

Rodrigo Pinheiro D 5.97

Tamás Szücs 65' M 6.31

Marcos Peña 1 👟 65' M 7.32

Sorriso M 5.80

Mathias De Amorim M 6.64

Gil Dias M 6.32

G. Koutsias 78' F 6.50

Bench

Gabriel G 0.00

Gustavo Garcia D 0.00

I. Zlobin G 0.00

L. Realpe 70' D 6.13

Mathis Jangeal M 0.00

Paulo Moreira M 0.00

Pedro Santos 25' F 6.54

P. Salas 25' F 6.44

T. van de Looi 25' M 5.41

U. Abubakar 12' F 6.70

V. Serafimović D 0.00

Alverca 3-4-3

Matheus Mendes 1 👟 G 7.11

I. James 80' D 6.47

Sergi Gómez D 6.76

S. Baseya D 6.56

Francisco Chissumba M 6.03

D. Gui 66' M 6.47

Rayan M 6.42

Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques 1 👟 M 6.07

Figueiredo 1 ⚽ 74' F 8.05

D. Camara 66' F 6.33

Chiquinho 1 ⚽ 74' F 8.13

Bench

André Vidigal 1 ⚽ 24' F 7.60

C. Nuozzi F 0.00

Jhonatan G 0.00

Matheus França 16' F 6.73

S. Merheg F 0.00

Toni Tamarit F 0.00

Vasco Moreira M 0.00

Vivaldo Semedo 1 ⚽ 16' F 7.52

Y. Bojang D 0.00

Zé Rafael 24' M 6.37

Zoubdi F 0.00

Best on the pitch

Chiquinho

F · Alverca

8.13

1 ⚽

2 shots · 10 pass

Figueiredo

F · Alverca

8.05

1 ⚽

1 shots · 23 pass

André Vidigal

F · Alverca

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 2 pass

Vivaldo Semedo

F · Alverca

7.52

1 ⚽

1 shots · 3 pass

Marcos Peña

M · Famalicao

7.32

1 👟

1 shots · 57 pass

Matheus Mendes

G · Alverca

7.11

1 👟

· 22 pass

Famalicao — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
L. Carević	G	90	5.75	—	—	0	19	13%	0	—	—
Pedro Francisco	D	65	5.50	—	—	1	39	31%	3	1	—
Víctor Rofino	D	90	6.79	1	—	1	77	70%	0	1	—
M. Mattara	D	20	6.23	—	—	1	7	7%	1	—	—
Rodrigo Pinheiro	D	90	5.97	—	—	0	68	60%	1	—	—
Tamás Szücs	M	65	6.31	—	—	1	36	34%	4	—	—
Marcos Peña	M	65	7.32	—	1	1	57	51%	4	—	—
Sorriso	M	90	5.80	—	—	2	38	30%	3	—	—
Mathias De Amorim	M	90	6.64	—	—	2	50	46%	7	1	—
Gil Dias	M	90	6.32	—	—	0	45	35%	0	—	—
G. Koutsias	F	78	6.50	—	—	2	11	8%	0	—	—
L. Realpe	D	70	6.13	—	—	1	56	55%	1	—	—
Pedro Santos	F	25	6.54	—	—	0	12	8%	1	—	—
P. Salas	F	25	6.44	—	—	0	8	6%	2	—	—
T. van de Looi	M	25	5.41	—	—	1	15	13%	0	—	—
U. Abubakar	F	12	6.70	—	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—

Alverca — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matheus Mendes	G	90	7.11	—	1	0	22	21%	0	—	—
I. James	D	80	6.47	—	—	0	31	26%	2	—	—
Sergi Gómez	D	90	6.76	—	—	0	51	42%	3	—	—
S. Baseya	D	90	6.56	—	—	1	43	34%	3	—	—
Francisco Chissumba	M	90	6.03	—	—	0	9	7%	1	1	—
D. Gui	M	66	6.47	—	—	0	13	13%	2	—	—
Rayan	M	90	6.42	—	—	2	37	30%	4	—	—
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques	M	90	6.07	—	1	0	24	14%	1	1	—
Figueiredo	F	74	8.05	1	—	1	23	15%	0	—	—
D. Camara	F	66	6.33	—	—	3	10	6%	1	—	—
Chiquinho	F	74	8.13	1	—	2	10	7%	3	—	—
André Vidigal	F	24	7.60	1	—	2	2	1%	0	—	—
Matheus França	F	16	6.73	—	—	1	3	3%	0	—	—
Vivaldo Semedo	F	16	7.52	1	—	1	3	3%	0	—	—
Zé Rafael	M	24	6.37	—	—	1	12	9%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Alverca?

The final score was Famalicao 1–4 Alverca.

What did the model predict before Famalicao vs Alverca?

The model assigned 38% probability to a Famalicao win, 31% to a draw, and 29% to an Alverca win.