Farense - Chaves
Segunda Liga
October 04, 2026 12:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.31%
Win
Farense
30.54%
Draw
31.14%
Win
Chaves
1.7
1.12
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.22%)
1X2 Result
1
38%
X
31%
2
31%
Double Chance
1X
69%
X2
62%
12
70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
50%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Farense a 38% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Chaves. Expected goals are 1.7 for Farense and 1.1 for Chaves (total 2.8), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.22% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Farense have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Chaves.
Season Stats
6W
5D
4L
6W
1D
8L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.3
0.7
Conceded
1.7
6.0
Shots OT
9.0
2.0
Corners
3.0
56%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
53%
O 1.5
73%
33%
O 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
53%
40%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Segunda Liga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
4W
4D
2L
· at home
2W
0D
8L
· away
1.0
gls/g
1.2
0.8
Conceded
1.9
40%
Win %
20%
80%
Win or Draw
20%
60%
O 1.5
60%
40%
O 2.5
60%
0%
O 3.5
40%
60%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
30%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Farense
Chaves →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Farense
Attack
23
Defence
60
Form
38
Chaves
Attack
26
Defence
37
Form
26
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lusitânia Lourosa
|
6 | 16 |
| 2 |
Penafiel
|
6 | 13 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP B
|
6 | 12 |
| 4 |
Vizela
|
6 | 11 |
| 5 |
Benfica B
|
6 | 10 |
| 6 |
União de Leiria
|
6 | 10 |
| 7 |
Leixoes
|
6 | 10 |
| 8 |
Academica
|
6 | 9 |
| 9 |
Tondela
|
6 | 9 |
| 10 |
Farense
|
5 | 8 |
| 11 |
Portimonense
|
6 | 7 |
| 12 |
AVS
|
6 | 6 |
| 13 |
Felgueiras 1932
|
6 | 6 |
| 14 |
Torreense
|
6 | 6 |
| 15 |
Amarante
|
6 | 5 |
| 16 |
Chaves
|
5 | 4 |
| 17 |
FC Porto B
|
6 | 4 |
| 18 |
Feirense
|
6 | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Farense vs Chaves?
The model gives Farense a 38% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 31% for an Chaves win.
How many goals are expected in Farense vs Chaves?
Expected goals: Farense 1.7, Chaves 1.1 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Farense vs Chaves?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.22%.