Farul Constanta 4–3 Oţelul — pre-match prediction — Liga 1 — October 25, 2026

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Liga 1 · Regular Season - 13 October 25, 2026 15:00

Farul Constanta

#7 · 20 pts

4 – 3

Final score

Oţelul

#14 · 11 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Farul Constanta

Matteo Ahlinvi (ast. Ionuț Vână) 8'

Matteo Ahlinvi (ast. Cristian Ganea) 28'

Răzvan Marincean 40'

Alexandru Goncear (ast. Rafael Munteanu) 71'

55' (ast. Pedro Nuno) Dominick Zator

74' Denis Bordun

78' Denis Bordun

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Farul Constanta a 57% win probability (draw 22%, Oţelul 20%). The final result was Farul Constanta 4–3 Oţelul. In 4 previous meetings, Farul Constanta have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Oţelul.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.23

Actual xG

1.28

Saves

35%

Possession

65%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Matteo Ahlinvi · ast. Ionuț Vână

13'

Alexandru Viorel Bălănică

⚽Matteo Ahlinvi · ast. Cristian Ganea

28'

Victor Dican

30'

⚽Răzvan Marincean

40'

45'

Matei Frunză / Teodor lungu ↕

45'

Denis Bordun / Alexandru Viorel Bălănică ↕

55'

ast. Pedro Nuno · Dominick Zator⚽

↕ Narek Grigoryan / Razvan Tanasa

59'

↕ Răzvan Marincean / Alexandru Goncear

59'

Cristian Ganea

63'

⚽Alexandru Goncear · ast. Rafael Munteanu

71'

74'

Denis Bordun⚽

↕ Eduard Radaslavescu / Yann Kitala

77'

78'

Denis Bordun⚽

79'

Dragos Andrei Aftene / Rafael Brito ↕

79'

Ze Turbo / Pedro Nuno ↕

↕ Matteo Ahlinvi / Nicolas Popescu

83'

Pre-match prediction

57.07%

Farul ←

22.21%

20.72%

Oţelul

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Farul Constanta) 57.07% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Farul

2.25

1.23

-1.02

Oţelul

0.93

1.28

+0.35

xG dominance was balanced (1.23 – 1.28). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	13	30
2	Universitatea Craiova	13	29
3	Rapid	13	27
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	22
6	FCSB	13	21
7	Farul Constanta	13	20
8	Uta Arad	13	18
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	13	17
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	16
11	FC Botosani	13	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	13	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	12
14	Oţelul	13	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	8
16	Csikszereda	13	5

Lineups

Farul Constanta 3-4-3

R. Munteanu 1 👟 G 6.94

V. Dican D 6.12

I. Larie D 6.42

S. Bouzamoucha D 6.33

C. Ganea 1 👟 M 6.80

M. Ahlinvi 2 ⚽ 83' M 8.57

T. Njiké M 6.27

I. Vînă 1 👟 M 6.41

E. Rădăslăvescu 77' F 6.05

Răzvan Marincean 1 ⚽ 59' F 7.80

N. Grigoryan 59' F 6.60

Bench

A. Buzbuchi G 0.00

A. Goncear 1 ⚽ 31' F 7.44

D. Maftei D 0.00

Gustavo Marins D 0.00

L. Pellegrini D 0.00

N. Popescu 7' M 5.93

R. Tănasă 31' F 6.88

V. Țicu D 0.00

Y. Kitala 13' F 6.50

Oţelul 4-3-3

C. Dur-Bozoancă G 5.96

Miguel Silva D 5.81

P. Iacob D 6.12

G. Christopoulos D 6.22

D. Zator 1 ⚽ D 6.62

T. Lungu 45' M 5.85

Rafael Brito 79' M 6.49

A. Ciobanu M 7.20

Pedro Nuno 1 👟 79' F 7.70

Patrick F 6.42

A. Balanica 45' F 6.12

Bench

D. Aftene 11' M 5.90

D. Bordun 2 ⚽ 45' M 7.80

D. Neicu D 0.00

M. Contra G 0.00

Mehmet Titiz F 0.00

M. Frunză 45' M 5.88

Zé Turbo 11' F 6.28

Best on the pitch

M. Ahlinvi

M · Farul

8.57

2 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

D. Bordun

M · Oţelul

7.80

2 ⚽

2 shots · 16 pass

Răzvan Marincean

F · Farul

7.80

1 ⚽

1 shots · 13 pass

Pedro Nuno

F · Oţelul

7.70

1 👟

3 shots · 47 pass

A. Goncear

F · Farul

7.44

1 ⚽

1 shots · 6 pass

A. Ciobanu

M · Oţelul

7.20

4 shots · 68 pass

Farul Constanta — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Munteanu	G	90	6.94	—	1	0	47	18%	0	—	—
V. Dican	D	90	6.12	—	—	0	47	36%	1	1	—
I. Larie	D	90	6.42	—	—	0	33	32%	0	—	—
S. Bouzamoucha	D	90	6.33	—	—	0	28	24%	1	—	—
C. Ganea	M	90	6.80	—	1	2	31	19%	2	1	—
M. Ahlinvi	M	83	8.57	2	—	2	26	20%	2	—	—
T. Njiké	M	90	6.27	—	—	1	33	28%	1	—	—
I. Vînă	M	90	6.41	—	1	0	22	13%	2	—	—
E. Rădăslăvescu	F	77	6.05	—	—	0	8	8%	0	—	—
Răzvan Marincean	F	59	7.80	1	—	1	13	9%	0	—	—
N. Grigoryan	F	59	6.60	—	—	0	11	7%	2	—	—
A. Goncear	F	31	7.44	1	—	1	6	2%	1	—	—
N. Popescu	M	7	5.93	—	—	0	4	3%	1	—	—
R. Tănasă	F	31	6.88	—	—	2	8	6%	1	—	—
Y. Kitala	F	13	6.50	—	—	1	4	3%	0	—	—

Oţelul — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
C. Dur-Bozoancă	G	90	5.96	—	—	0	27	22%	0	—	—
Miguel Silva	D	90	5.81	—	—	2	38	27%	3	—	—
P. Iacob	D	90	6.12	—	—	1	109	99%	3	—	—
G. Christopoulos	D	90	6.22	—	—	1	94	91%	1	—	—
D. Zator	D	90	6.62	1	—	2	50	42%	2	—	—
T. Lungu	M	45	5.85	—	—	1	31	26%	0	—	—
Rafael Brito	M	79	6.49	—	—	1	73	67%	1	—	—
A. Ciobanu	M	90	7.20	—	—	4	68	58%	1	—	—
Pedro Nuno	F	79	7.70	—	1	3	47	39%	0	—	—
Patrick	F	90	6.42	—	—	3	13	5%	2	—	—
A. Balanica	F	45	6.12	—	—	0	9	5%	0	1	—
D. Aftene	M	11	5.90	—	—	1	6	6%	0	—	—
D. Bordun	M	45	7.80	2	—	2	16	10%	0	—	—
M. Frunză	M	45	5.88	—	—	0	9	7%	0	—	—
Zé Turbo	F	11	6.28	—	—	0	4	2%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Farul Constanta vs Oţelul?

The final score was Farul Constanta 4–3 Oţelul.

What did the model predict before Farul Constanta vs Oţelul?

The model assigned 57% probability to a Farul Constanta win, 22% to a draw, and 20% to an Oţelul win.