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Fazendense - Estrela

Taça de Portugal October 17, 2026 16:00
Fazendense
vs
Estrela
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.36%
Win
Fazendense
30.27%
Draw
30.38%
Win
Estrela
4.5
Expected xG
1.86

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.7%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 30%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 61%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 57%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Fazendense a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Estrela. Expected goals are 4.5 for Fazendense and 1.9 for Estrela (total 6.4), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.7% probability.

Season Stats

Fazendense
2W 0D 1L
Estrela
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.7
Goals
1.0
1.0
Conceded
3.0
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 3 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
67%
O 3.5
84%
BTTS
Fazendense
2W 0D 1L · at home
Estrela
0W 0D 1L · away
2.7
gls/g
1.0
1.0
Conceded
3.0
67%
Win %
0%
67%
Win or Draw
0%
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
100%
33%
O 3.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Fazendense Estrela →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% —
1 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
3 2.6% 4.9% 4.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 3.0% 5.5% 5.1% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5%
5 2.7% 4.9% 4.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5%

Recent form

Fazendense Fazendense
W Ginásio Figueirense 6–1
W Mocarriense 1–0
L Mirandela 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Estrela Estrela
L Alpendorada 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 18%

Playing profile

Fazendense Fazendense
Attack
63
Defence
85
Form
81
Estrela Estrela
Attack
51
Defence
51
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Fazendense vs Estrela?
The model gives Fazendense a 39% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Estrela win.
How many goals are expected in Fazendense vs Estrela?
Expected goals: Fazendense 4.5, Estrela 1.9 (total 6.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Fazendense vs Estrela?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.7%.