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Liga 1 · Clausura - 12 October 18, 2026 01:00 Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa
FBC Melgar
#3 · 54 pts
4 – 2
Final score
Deportivo Garcilaso
#4 · 51 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FBC Melgar
Nicolas Quagliata (ast. Matías Lazo) 39'
Johnny Vidales 62' (pen.)
Bernardo Cuesta 73'
Cristian Bordacahar (ast. Horacio Orzan) 76'
9' (ast. Pablo Labrin) Facundo Castelli
57' (ast. Pablo Labrin) Francisco Arancibia
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FBC Melgar a 74% win probability (draw 12%, Deportivo Garcilaso 13%). The final result was FBC Melgar 4–2 Deportivo Garcilaso. In 1 previous meetings, FBC Melgar have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportivo Garcilaso.

Match statistics
22
Total shots
15
10
Shots on target
4
2.89
Actual xG
0.78
2
Saves
6
64%
Possession
36%
6
Corners
6
10
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
5'
Facundo Castelli
9'
ast. Pablo Labrin · Facundo Castelli⚽
⚽Nicolas Quagliata · ast. Matías Lazo
39'
57'
ast. Pablo Labrin · Francisco Arancibia⚽
60'
Carlos Ramos
⚽Johnny Vidales (pen.)
62'
Nicolas Quagliata
64'
↕ Nelson Cabanillas / Horacio Orzan
68'
71'
Fernando Pacheco / Facundo Castelli ↕
⚽Bernardo Cuesta
73'
↕ Johnny Vidales / Lautaro Guzmán
74'
⚽Cristian Bordacahar · ast. Horacio Orzan
76'
↕ Cristian Bordacahar / Franco Zanelatto
81'
↕ Kevin Minda / Jesús Alcantar
82'
83'
Claudio Torrejón / Carlos Ramos ↕
83'
Adrian Ascues / Pablo Labrin ↕
83'
Christopher Olivares / Beto Da Silva ↕
88'
José Anthony Rosell / Xavi Moreno Layme ↕
Walter Tandazo
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
74.41%
FBC ←
12.13%
X
13.46%
Deportivo
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FBC Melgar) 74.41% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FBC
4.00
2.89
-1.11
Deportivo
1.63
0.78
-0.85
FBC Melgar dominated by xG (2.89 vs 0.78). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 31 65
2 Universitario Universitario 30 56
3 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 31 54
4 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 31 51
5 Cusco Cusco 31 51
6 Cienciano Cienciano 31 50
7 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 31 47
8 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 31 46
9 Club Deportivo Los Chankas Club Deportivo Los Chankas 31 46
10 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 31 44
11 Sport Boys Sport Boys 30 41
12 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 31 41
13 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 31 35
14 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 31 34
15 ADT ADT 31 30
16 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 31 28
17 UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 31 28
18 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 31 18
Lineups
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
21 J. Cabezudo J. Cabezudo G 6.18
27 N. Cabanillas N. Cabanillas 68' D 6.12
3 L. González L. González D 6.84
23 J. Escobar J. Escobar D 7.54
33 M. Lazo M. Lazo 1 👟 D 6.91
24 W. Tandazo W. Tandazo M 5.80
25 K. Minda K. Minda 82' M 6.42
11 J. Vidales J. Vidales 1 ⚽ 74' M 5.86
10 N. Quagliata N. Quagliata 1 ⚽ M 8.20
7 C. Bordacahar C. Bordacahar 1 ⚽ 81' M 7.60
9 B. Cuesta B. Cuesta 1 ⚽ F 8.20
Bench
5 A. Deneumostier A. Deneumostier D 0.00
12 C. Cáceda C. Cáceda G 0.00
77 F. Zanelatto F. Zanelatto 9' F 6.62
66 H. Orzán H. Orzán 1 👟 22' M 6.31
90 J. Alcántar J. Alcántar 8' D 6.22
80 J. D´Arrigo J. D´Arrigo M 0.00
8 L. Guzmán L. Guzmán 16' F 6.65
45 Matias Zegarra Matias Zegarra D 0.00
26 M. Portillo M. Portillo M 0.00
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
1 P. Zubczuk P. Zubczuk G 6.69
23 X. Moreno X. Moreno 88' D 5.79
19 A. Gómez A. Gómez D 5.67
2 A. Salazar A. Salazar D 5.12
55 E. Canales E. Canales D 6.11
8 A. González A. González M 6.22
30 L. da Silva L. da Silva 83' M 5.95
18 C. Ramos C. Ramos 83' M 6.08
10 P. Labrin P. Labrin 2 👟 83' M 8.41
11 F. Arancibia F. Arancibia 1 ⚽ M 7.22
9 F. Castelli F. Castelli 1 ⚽ 71' F 7.58
Bench
27 A. Ascues A. Ascues 7' M 5.88
20 A. Rosell A. Rosell 2' D 5.70
24 C. Olivares C. Olivares 7' F 6.27
14 C. Torrejón C. Torrejón 7' M 5.91
88 F. Pacheco F. Pacheco 19' F 6.23
31 J. Barbieri J. Barbieri G 0.00
35 J. Mendoza J. Mendoza M 0.00
7 L. Ríos L. Ríos F 0.00
17 S. Ramírez S. Ramírez F 0.00
Best on the pitch
P. Labrin
P. Labrin
M · Deportivo
8.41
2 👟
2 shots · 22 pass
B. Cuesta
B. Cuesta
F · FBC
8.20
1 ⚽
5 shots · 22 pass
N. Quagliata
N. Quagliata
M · FBC
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 41 pass
C. Bordacahar
C. Bordacahar
M · FBC
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
F. Castelli
F. Castelli
F · Deportivo
7.58
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
J. Escobar
J. Escobar
D · FBC
7.54
3 shots · 79 pass
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Cabezudo G 90 6.18 — — 0 28 24% 0 — —
N. Cabanillas D 68 6.12 — — 1 26 19% 1 — —
L. González D 90 6.84 — — 0 66 59% 4 — —
J. Escobar D 90 7.54 — — 3 79 73% 0 — —
M. Lazo D 90 6.91 — 1 2 56 53% 2 — —
W. Tandazo M 90 5.80 — — 2 43 36% 1 1 —
K. Minda M 82 6.42 — — 1 48 45% 2 — —
J. Vidales M 74 5.86 1 — 2 43 30% 0 — —
N. Quagliata M 90 8.20 1 — 3 41 36% 0 1 —
C. Bordacahar M 81 7.60 1 — 2 25 18% 0 — —
B. Cuesta F 90 8.20 1 — 5 22 18% 0 — —
F. Zanelatto F 9 6.62 — — 1 2 1% 0 — —
H. Orzán M 22 6.31 — 1 0 12 10% 0 — —
J. Alcántar D 8 6.22 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
L. Guzmán F 16 6.65 — — 0 4 2% 0 — —
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Zubczuk G 90 6.69 — — 0 21 9% 0 — —
X. Moreno D 88 5.79 — — 0 15 10% 0 — —
A. Gómez D 90 5.67 — — 1 23 17% 1 — —
A. Salazar D 90 5.12 — — 0 23 12% 0 — —
E. Canales D 90 6.11 — — 0 37 30% 2 — —
A. González M 90 6.22 — — 1 38 32% 1 — —
L. da Silva M 83 5.95 — — 4 17 13% 0 — —
C. Ramos M 83 6.08 — — 2 32 25% 4 1 —
P. Labrin M 83 8.41 — 2 2 22 20% 1 — —
F. Arancibia M 90 7.22 1 — 1 13 11% 1 — —
F. Castelli F 71 7.58 1 — 2 16 11% 0 1 —
A. Ascues M 7 5.88 — — 1 3 3% 0 — —
A. Rosell D 2 5.70 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
C. Olivares F 7 6.27 — — 1 2 1% 1 — —
C. Torrejón M 7 5.91 — — 0 8 7% 0 — —
F. Pacheco F 19 6.23 — — 0 6 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The final score was FBC Melgar 4–2 Deportivo Garcilaso.
What did the model predict before FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model assigned 74% probability to a FBC Melgar win, 12% to a draw, and 13% to an Deportivo Garcilaso win.