FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami — pre-match prediction — MLS — May 14, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 13 May 14, 2026 01:30

FC Cincinnati

#7 · 46 pts

3 – 5

Final score

Inter Miami

#2 · 59 pts

K. Denkey 41' (pen.)

P. Bucha (ast. B. J. Ramirez Leon) 49'

Evander (ast. K. Denkey) 64'

24' L. Messi

55' (ast. R. de Paul) L. Messi

79' (ast. L. Messi) M. Silvetti

84' G. Berterame

89' (ast. M. Silvetti) L. Messi

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Inter Miami a 44% win probability (draw 21%, FC Cincinnati 33%). The final result was FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami. In 1 previous meetings, FC Cincinnati have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Inter Miami.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.76

Actual xG

2.21

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

24'

L. Messi⚽

38'

I. Fray

40'

G. Lujan

⚽K. Denkey (pen.)

41'

⚽P. Bucha · ast. B. J. Ramirez Leon

49'

55'

ast. R. de Paul · L. Messi⚽

↕ S. Gidi / E. Echenique

60'

⚽Evander · ast. K. Denkey

64'

65'

F. Mura / S. Reguilon ↕

↕ M. Robinson / N. Hagglund

72'

↕ K. Mboma / O. Nwobodo

73'

↕ M. Miazga / A. Chirila

73'

O. Nwobodo

76'

77'

M. Silvetti / L. Suarez ↕

77'

Y. Bright

79'

ast. L. Messi · M. Silvetti⚽

84'

G. Berterame⚽

↕ P. Bucha / T. Barlow

87'

↕ A. Chirila / A. Lajhar

87'

89'

ast. M. Silvetti · L. Messi⚽

Evander

90'+4

Pre-match prediction

33.8%

21.72%

44.49%

Inter ←

we assigned to the actual result (Inter Miami) 44.49% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

2.40

1.76

-0.64

Inter

2.83

2.21

-0.62

Inter Miami dominated by xG (2.21 vs 1.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	33	74
2	Inter Miami	33	59
3	New England Revolution	33	58
4	Chicago Fire	33	55
5	Charlotte	33	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	43
10	New York Red Bulls	33	39
11	New York City FC	33	39
12	Toronto FC	33	39
13	Atlanta United FC	33	33
14	DC United	33	33
15	CF Montreal	33	26

Lineups

FC Cincinnati 3-5-2

R. Celentano G 6.20

M. Robinson 72' D 7.30

M. Miazga 73' D 5.90

K. Smith D 5.70

Bryan Josías Ramírez León 1 👟 M 7.30

S. Gidi 60' M 6.20

Evander 1 ⚽ M 7.20

G. Valenzuela M 6.30

P. Bucha 1 ⚽ 87' M 6.60

K. Mboma Dem 73' F 6.60

K. Denkey 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.60

Bench

A. Chirila 14' D 5.70

A. Jabbari F

Ayoub Lajhar 13' D 6.50

B. Anunga M

E. Echenique 30' F 6.20

E. Louro G

N. Hagglund 18' D 6.00

O. Nwobodo 17' M 6.20

T. Barlow 13' F 6.30

Inter Miami 4-3-3

D. St. Clair G 6.20

Reguilón 65' D 6.20

Micael D 6.30

G. Luján D 5.00

I. Fray D 5.70

T. Segovia M 7.20

Y. Bright M 7.70

R. De Paul 1 👟 M 7.30

L. Suárez 77' F 6.30

G. Berterame 1 ⚽ F 6.90

L. Messi 3 ⚽ 1 👟 F 10.00

Bench

Daniel Pinter F

D. Ayala M

D. Ruíz M

Ezequiel Abadia-Reda D

F. Mura 25' D 6.90

Mateo Silvetti 1 ⚽ 1 👟 13' F 8.50

M. Falcón D

P. Plambeck M

R. Ríos Novo G

Best on the pitch

L. Messi

F · Inter

10.00

3 ⚽ 1 👟

5 shots · 51 pass

Mateo Silvetti

F · Inter

8.50

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 5 pass

Y. Bright

M · Inter

7.70

1 shots · 48 pass

K. Denkey

F · FC

7.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 29 pass

Bryan Josías Ramírez León

M · FC

7.30

1 👟

· 42 pass

M. Robinson

D · FC

7.30

· 44 pass

FC Cincinnati — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Celentano	G	90	6.20	—	—	—	23	23%	—	—	—
M. Robinson	D	72	7.30	—	—	—	44	39%	2	—	—
M. Miazga	D	73	5.90	—	—	—	42	37%	—	—	—
K. Smith	D	90	5.70	—	—	—	40	33%	—	—	—
Bryan Josías Ramírez León	M	90	7.30	—	1	—	42	35%	4	—	—
S. Gidi	M	60	6.20	—	—	—	43	36%	—	—	—
Evander	M	90	7.20	1	—	2	37	32%	1	1	—
G. Valenzuela	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	45	43%	2	—	—
P. Bucha	M	87	6.60	1	—	2	33	25%	1	—	—
K. Mboma Dem	F	73	6.60	—	—	—	22	16%	2	—	—
K. Denkey	F	90	7.60	1	1	2	29	23%	—	—	—
A. Chirila	D	14	5.70	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—
Ayoub Lajhar	D	13	6.50	—	—	—	8	8%	—	—	—
E. Echenique	F	30	6.20	—	—	1	13	10%	1	—	—
N. Hagglund	D	18	6.00	—	—	—	11	11%	—	—	—
O. Nwobodo	M	17	6.20	—	—	—	15	12%	—	1	—
T. Barlow	F	13	6.30	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—

Inter Miami — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. St. Clair	G	90	6.20	—	—	—	27	22%	—	—	—
Reguilón	D	65	6.20	—	—	—	37	28%	2	—	—
Micael	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	49	45%	3	—	—
G. Luján	D	90	5.00	—	—	1	51	40%	1	1	—
I. Fray	D	90	5.70	—	—	—	30	25%	2	1	—
T. Segovia	M	90	7.20	—	—	1	54	49%	5	—	—
Y. Bright	M	90	7.70	—	—	1	48	44%	10	1	—
R. De Paul	M	90	7.30	—	1	—	74	61%	1	—	—
L. Suárez	F	77	6.30	—	—	1	39	29%	1	—	—
G. Berterame	F	90	6.90	1	—	1	29	22%	1	—	—
L. Messi	F	90	10.00	3	1	5	51	37%	1	—	—
F. Mura	D	25	6.90	—	—	—	19	17%	2	—	—
Mateo Silvetti	F	13	8.50	1	1	1	5	5%	3	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami?

The final score was FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami.

What did the model predict before FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami?

The model assigned 33% probability to a FC Cincinnati win, 21% to a draw, and 44% to an Inter Miami win.