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MLS · Regular Season - 10 April 26, 2026 01:30
FC Cincinnati
#10 · 33 pts
2 – 0
Final score
New York Red Bulls
#8 · 33 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Cincinnati
K. Denkey (ast. P. Bucha) 40'
K. Denkey 45'+5 (pen.)
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Cincinnati a 61% win probability (draw 19%, New York Red Bulls 19%). The final result was FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls. In 1 previous meetings, FC Cincinnati have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for New York Red Bulls.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
16
5
Shots on target
6
2.86
Actual xG
1.44
6
Saves
3
48%
Possession
52%
4
Corners
7
22
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
J. Masanka Bungi
B. J. Ramirez Leon
31'
⚽K. Denkey · ast. P. Bucha
40'
⚽K. Denkey (pen.)
45'+5
46'
M. Dos Santos / J. Masanka Bungi ↕
↕ K. Mboma / T. Barlow
61'
↕ P. Bucha / E. Echenique
61'
62'
E. Forsberg / G. Berggren ↕
62'
J. Ruvalcaba / M. Sofo ↕
73'
R. Mosquera / C. Cowell ↕
78'
A. Mehmeti
↕ B. J. Ramirez Leon / A. Lajhar
79'
↕ K. Denkey / A. Jabbari
79'
85'
N. Benedetti / R. Donkor ↕
↕ K. Smith / G. Flores
89'
Pre-match prediction
61.34%
FC ←
19.07%
X
19.6%
New
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 61.34% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
4.35
2.86
-1.49
New
1.43
1.44
+0.01
FC Cincinnati dominated by xG (2.86 vs 1.44). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 27 60
2 New England Revolution New England Revolution 27 46
3 Inter Miami Inter Miami 27 46
4 Charlotte Charlotte 27 43
5 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 26 42
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 27 39
7 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 27 34
8 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 27 33
9 New York City FC New York City FC 27 33
10 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 26 33
11 DC United DC United 26 30
12 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 27 29
13 Toronto FC Toronto FC 27 29
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 27 27
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 27 24
Lineups
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
18
G 7.90
11 S. Gidi S. Gidi D 7.90
88 Andrei Chirila Andrei Chirila D 7.50
24 K. Smith K. Smith 89' D 7.00
29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León Bryan Josías Ramírez León 79' M 6.90
27 B. Anunga B. Anunga M 7.20
22 G. Valenzuela G. Valenzuela M 7.70
20 P. Bucha P. Bucha 1 👟 61' M 8.20
10 Evander Evander F 8.90
9 K. Denkey K. Denkey 2 ⚽ 79' F 8.00
17 K. Mboma Dem K. Mboma Dem 61' F 6.60
Bench
55 Ayoub Lajhar Ayoub Lajhar 11' D 6.90
66 E. Echenique E. Echenique 29' F 7.00
3 Gilberto Flores Gilberto Flores 1' D
16 T. Barlow T. Barlow 29' F 6.20
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
34
G 7.30
23
J. Masanka Bungi 45' D 5.30
26
D 6.70
12 D. Nealis D. Nealis D 7.70
3 J. Marshall-Rutty J. Marshall-Rutty D 6.30
4 G. Berggren G. Berggren 62' M 6.70
15 Adri Mehmeti Adri Mehmeti M 6.70
48 R. Donkor R. Donkor 85' M 5.30
37 M. Sofo M. Sofo 62' F 6.50
16 Julian Hall Julian Hall F 5.90
7 C. Cowell C. Cowell 73' F 6.20
Bench
13 E. Choupo-Moting E. Choupo-Moting F
10 E. Forsberg E. Forsberg 28' M 7.00
20
J. Mina D
11 J. Ruvalcaba J. Ruvalcaba 28' F 6.30
56 Matthew Dos Santos Matthew Dos Santos 45' D 7.60
79 Rafael Mosquera Rafael Mosquera 17' F 6.30
6 R. Voloder R. Voloder D
Best on the pitch
Evander
Evander
F · FC
8.90
4 shots · 33 pass
P. Bucha
P. Bucha
M · FC
8.20
1 👟
· 39 pass
K. Denkey
K. Denkey
F · FC
8.00
2 ⚽
3 shots · 16 pass
G · FC
7.90
· 27 pass
S. Gidi
S. Gidi
D · FC
7.90
· 65 pass
D. Nealis
D. Nealis
D · New
7.70
· 53 pass
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 27 20% — — —
S. Gidi D 90 7.90 — — — 65 57% 4 — —
Andrei Chirila D 90 7.50 — — 1 63 52% — — —
K. Smith D 89 7.00 — — — 50 47% 1 — —
Bryan Josías Ramírez León M 79 6.90 — — 2 53 46% 4 1 —
B. Anunga M 90 7.20 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
G. Valenzuela M 90 7.70 — — 1 44 42% 3 — —
P. Bucha M 61 8.20 — 1 — 39 31% 2 — —
Evander F 90 8.90 — — 4 33 29% 1 — —
K. Denkey F 79 8.00 2 — 3 16 13% 1 — —
K. Mboma Dem F 61 6.60 — — 1 19 17% 1 — —
Ayoub Lajhar D 11 6.90 — — — 3 — 2 — —
E. Echenique F 29 7.00 — — — 6 5% — — —
Gilberto Flores D 1 — — — — — — — — —
T. Barlow F 29 6.20 — — — 8 3% — — —
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.30 — — — 20 17% — — —
J. Masanka Bungi D 45 5.30 — — — 12 8% 4 1 —
D 90 6.70 — — — 46 44% — — —
D. Nealis D 90 7.70 — — — 53 46% 2 — —
J. Marshall-Rutty D 90 6.30 — — 1 68 62% 2 — —
G. Berggren M 62 6.70 — — 2 16 13% 1 — —
Adri Mehmeti M 90 6.70 — — — 66 55% 5 1 —
R. Donkor M 85 5.30 — — 1 41 36% — — —
M. Sofo F 62 6.50 — — — 19 11% 1 — —
Julian Hall F 90 5.90 — — 1 8 7% — — —
C. Cowell F 73 6.20 — — 4 23 19% 3 — —
E. Forsberg M 28 7.00 — — 3 25 24% 1 — —
J. Ruvalcaba F 28 6.30 — — 2 30 26% — — —
Matthew Dos Santos D 45 7.60 — — 1 33 32% — — —
Rafael Mosquera F 17 6.30 — — 1 8 7% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls?
The final score was FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls.
What did the model predict before FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls?
The model assigned 61% probability to a FC Cincinnati win, 19% to a draw, and 19% to an New York Red Bulls win.