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MLS · Regular Season - 10 April 26, 2026 03:30
FC Cincinnati
#8 · 16 pts
2 – 0
Final score
New York Red Bulls
#6 · 18 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Cincinnati
K. Denkey (ast. P. Bucha) 40'
K. Denkey 45'+5 (pen.)

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Cincinnati a 61% win probability (draw 19%, New York Red Bulls 19%). The final result was FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls. In 1 previous meetings, FC Cincinnati have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for New York Red Bulls.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
16
5
Shots on target
6
2.86
Actual xG
1.44
6
Saves
3
48%
Possession
52%
4
Corners
7
22
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
J. Masanka Bungi
B. J. Ramirez Leon
31'
⚽K. Denkey · ast. P. Bucha
40'
⚽K. Denkey (pen.)
45'+5
46'
M. Dos Santos / J. Masanka Bungi ↕
↕ K. Mboma / T. Barlow
61'
↕ P. Bucha / E. Echenique
61'
62'
E. Forsberg / G. Berggren ↕
62'
J. Ruvalcaba / M. Sofo ↕
73'
R. Mosquera / C. Cowell ↕
78'
A. Mehmeti
↕ B. J. Ramirez Leon / A. Lajhar
79'
↕ K. Denkey / A. Jabbari
79'
85'
N. Benedetti / R. Donkor ↕
↕ K. Smith / G. Flores
89'
Pre-match prediction
61.34%
FC ←
19.07%
X
19.6%
New
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 61.34% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
4.35
2.86
-1.49
New
1.43
1.44
+0.01
FC Cincinnati dominated by xG (2.86 vs 1.44). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 12 29
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 12 27
2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 13 29
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 13 25
3 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 11 24
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 12 22
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 12 20
4 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 12 22
5 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 13 21
5 New York City FC New York City FC 13 18
6 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 13 21
6 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 13 18
7 DC United DC United 13 16
7 FC Dallas FC Dallas 13 19
8 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 12 18
8 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 13 16
9 Charlotte Charlotte 13 15
9 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 13 16
10 San Diego San Diego 13 16
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 12 14
11 CF Montreal CF Montreal 12 13
11 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 13 16
12 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 13 13
12 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 12 14
13 Austin Austin 13 14
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 13 12
14 St. Louis City St. Louis City 12 12
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 12 10
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 12 8
15 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 13 6
Lineups
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
18
G 7.90
11 Samuel Gidi Samuel Gidi D 7.90
88 Andrei Chirila Andrei Chirila D 7.50
24 Kyle Smith Kyle Smith 89' D 7.00
29 Bryan Ramirez Bryan Ramirez 79' M 6.90
27 Tah Anunga Tah Anunga M 7.20
22 Gerardo Valenzuela Gerardo Valenzuela M 7.70
20 Pavel Bucha Pavel Bucha 1 👟 61' M 8.20
10 Evander Evander F 8.90
9 Kévin Denkey Kévin Denkey 2 ⚽ 79' F 8.00
17 Kenji Mboma Dem Kenji Mboma Dem 61' F 6.60
Bench
55 Ayoub Lajhar Ayoub Lajhar 11' D 6.90
66 Ender Echenique Ender Echenique 29' F 7.00
3 Gilberto Flores Gilberto Flores 1' D
16 Tom Barlow Tom Barlow 29' F 6.20
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
34
G 7.30
23
J. Masanka Bungi 45' D 5.30
26
D 6.70
12 Dylan Nealis Dylan Nealis D 7.70
3 Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty D 6.30
4 Gustav Berggren Gustav Berggren 62' M 6.70
15 Adri Mehmeti Adri Mehmeti M 6.70
48 Ronald Donkor Ronald Donkor 85' M 5.30
37 Mohammed Sofo Mohammed Sofo 62' F 6.50
16 Julian Hall Julian Hall F 5.90
7 Cade Cowell Cade Cowell 73' F 6.20
Bench
13
E. M. Choupo-Moting F
10 Emil Forsberg Emil Forsberg 28' M 7.00
20
J. Mina D
11 Jorge Ruvalcaba Jorge Ruvalcaba 28' F 6.30
56 Matthew Dos Santos Matthew Dos Santos 45' D 7.60
79 Rafael Mosquera Rafael Mosquera 17' F 6.30
6 Robert Voloder Robert Voloder D
Best on the pitch
Evander
Evander
F · FC
8.90
4 shots · 33 pass
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha
M · FC
8.20
1 👟
· 39 pass
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey
F · FC
8.00
2 ⚽
3 shots · 16 pass
G · FC
7.90
· 27 pass
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi
D · FC
7.90
· 65 pass
Dylan Nealis
Dylan Nealis
D · New
7.70
· 53 pass
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 27 20% — — —
Samuel Gidi D 90 7.90 — — — 65 57% 4 — —
Andrei Chirila D 90 7.50 — — 1 63 52% — — —
Kyle Smith D 89 7.00 — — — 50 47% 1 — —
Bryan Ramirez M 79 6.90 — — 2 53 46% 4 1 —
Tah Anunga M 90 7.20 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
Gerardo Valenzuela M 90 7.70 — — 1 44 42% 3 — —
Pavel Bucha M 61 8.20 — 1 — 39 31% 2 — —
Evander F 90 8.90 — — 4 33 29% 1 — —
Kévin Denkey F 79 8.00 2 — 3 16 13% 1 — —
Kenji Mboma Dem F 61 6.60 — — 1 19 17% 1 — —
Ayoub Lajhar D 11 6.90 — — — 3 — 2 — —
Ender Echenique F 29 7.00 — — — 6 5% — — —
Gilberto Flores D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Tom Barlow F 29 6.20 — — — 8 3% — — —
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.30 — — — 20 17% — — —
J. Masanka Bungi D 45 5.30 — — — 12 8% 4 1 —
D 90 6.70 — — — 46 44% — — —
Dylan Nealis D 90 7.70 — — — 53 46% 2 — —
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty D 90 6.30 — — 1 68 62% 2 — —
Gustav Berggren M 62 6.70 — — 2 16 13% 1 — —
Adri Mehmeti M 90 6.70 — — — 66 55% 5 1 —
Ronald Donkor M 85 5.30 — — 1 41 36% — — —
Mohammed Sofo F 62 6.50 — — — 19 11% 1 — —
Julian Hall F 90 5.90 — — 1 8 7% — — —
Cade Cowell F 73 6.20 — — 4 23 19% 3 — —
Emil Forsberg M 28 7.00 — — 3 25 24% 1 — —
Jorge Ruvalcaba F 28 6.30 — — 2 30 26% — — —
Matthew Dos Santos D 45 7.60 — — 1 33 32% — — —
Rafael Mosquera F 17 6.30 — — 1 8 7% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls?
The final score was FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls.
What did the model predict before FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls?
The model assigned 61% probability to a FC Cincinnati win, 19% to a draw, and 19% to an New York Red Bulls win.