FC Cincinnati 4–3 Vancouver Whitecaps — pre-match prediction — MLS — July 23, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 23, 2026 01:30

FC Cincinnati

#7 · 31 pts

4 – 3

Final score

Vancouver Whitecaps

#1 · 46 pts

P. Bucha (ast. S. Gidi) 9'

K. Denkey (ast. E. Echenique) 28'

Evander (ast. G. Valenzuela) 36'

P. Bucha (ast. Evander) 56'

12' (ast. B. Caicedo) J. Badwal

25' (ast. O. Larraz) R. Gauld

58' (ast. J. Badwal) R. Gauld

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vancouver Whitecaps a 44% win probability (draw 19%, FC Cincinnati 36%). The final result was FC Cincinnati 4–3 Vancouver Whitecaps.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.56

Actual xG

1.82

Saves

38%

Possession

62%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

T. Blackmon

⚽P. Bucha · ast. S. Gidi

12'

ast. B. Caicedo · J. Badwal⚽

17'

M. Laborda

25'

ast. O. Larraz · R. Gauld⚽

⚽K. Denkey · ast. E. Echenique

28'

⚽Evander · ast. G. Valenzuela

36'

P. Bucha

41'

44'

C. Sabaly / B. Caicedo ↕

48'

E. Ocampo

⚽P. Bucha · ast. Evander

56'

58'

ast. J. Badwal · R. Gauld⚽

59'

A. Cubas

62'

J. Ngando / J. Badwal ↕

63'

N. Djordjevic / R. Gauld ↕

↕ E. Echenique / B. J. Ramirez Leon

64'

↕ K. Mboma / T. Barlow

64'

↕ M. Robinson / K. Smith

64'

78'

B. White

84'

R. Veselinovic / E. Ocampo ↕

84'

R. Elloumi / A. Cubas ↕

↕ K. Denkey / A. Jabbari

89'

↕ S. Gidi / T. Hadebe

89'

Pre-match prediction

36.62%

FC ←

19.23%

44.16%

Vancouver

we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 36.62% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

2.42

1.56

-0.86

Vancouver

2.85

1.82

-1.03

xG dominance was balanced (1.56 – 1.82). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	24	53
2	Inter Miami	24	44
3	New England Revolution	24	40
4	Chicago Fire	23	39
5	Charlotte	24	39
6	Orlando City SC	24	31
7	FC Cincinnati	23	31
8	Philadelphia Union	24	30
9	New York City FC	24	29
10	Toronto FC	24	29
11	DC United	23	28
12	New York Red Bulls	24	27
13	Columbus Crew	24	23
14	Atlanta United FC	24	22
15	CF Montreal	24	21

Lineups

FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1

R. Celentano G 6.60

S. Gidi 1 👟 89' D 6.50

Matt Miazga D 6.60

M. Robinson 64' D 5.90

E. Echenique 1 👟 64' M 6.60

O. Nwobodo M 7.20

G. Valenzuela 1 👟 M 6.90

P. Bucha 2 ⚽ M 8.70

Evander 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 9.00

K. Mboma Dem 64' F 6.30

K. Denkey 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.90

Bench

A. Jabbari 10' F 6.70

A. Powell D

B. Anunga M

Bryan Josías Ramírez León 35' D 7.20

E. Louro G

K. Smith 35' D 6.90

N. Hagglund D

T. Barlow 35' F 6.50

T. Hadebe 10' D 6.90

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1

Y. Takaoka G 5.60

T. Johnson D 6.20

M. Laborda D 5.90

T. Blackmon D 6.30

É. Ocampo 84' D 6.30

A. Cubas 84' M 6.60

O. Larraz 1 👟 M 6.30

Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez 1 👟 44' M 6.70

R. Gauld 2 ⚽ 63' M 7.90

J. Badwal 1 ⚽ 1 👟 62' M 7.60

B. White F 5.90

Bench

C. Sabaly 55' F 6.70

I. Boehmer G

Jean-Claude Ngando 37' M 6.70

M. Gherasimencov D

Nikola Djordjevic 36' D 6.70

Ranko Veselinović 15' D 6.90

R. Elloumi 15' F 6.20

S. Adekugbe D

T. Müller F

Best on the pitch

Evander

F · FC

9.00

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 32 pass

P. Bucha

M · FC

8.70

2 ⚽

2 shots · 33 pass

R. Gauld

M · Vancouver

7.90

2 ⚽

3 shots · 40 pass

K. Denkey

F · FC

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

J. Badwal

M · Vancouver

7.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 33 pass

Bryan Josías Ramírez León

D · FC

7.20

· 15 pass

FC Cincinnati — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Celentano	G	99	6.60	—	—	—	27	25%	—	—	—
S. Gidi	D	89	6.50	—	1	—	51	44%	—	—	—
Matt Miazga	D	99	6.60	—	—	—	52	48%	—	—	—
M. Robinson	D	64	5.90	—	—	—	37	29%	—	—	—
E. Echenique	M	64	6.60	—	1	—	15	11%	—	—	—
O. Nwobodo	M	99	7.20	—	—	—	29	21%	8	—	—
G. Valenzuela	M	99	6.90	—	1	1	29	28%	—	—	—
P. Bucha	M	99	8.70	2	—	2	33	27%	4	1	—
Evander	F	99	9.00	1	1	2	32	28%	1	—	—
K. Mboma Dem	F	64	6.30	—	—	—	14	12%	1	—	—
K. Denkey	F	89	7.90	1	—	2	26	18%	—	—	—
A. Jabbari	F	10	6.70	—	—	—	3	1%	—	—	—
Bryan Josías Ramírez León	D	35	7.20	—	—	—	15	13%	5	—	—
K. Smith	D	35	6.90	—	—	—	17	13%	—	—	—
T. Barlow	F	35	6.50	—	—	—	14	11%	—	—	—
T. Hadebe	D	10	6.90	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—

Vancouver Whitecaps — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Y. Takaoka	G	99	5.60	—	—	—	22	20%	—	—	—
T. Johnson	D	99	6.20	—	—	—	82	73%	1	—	—
M. Laborda	D	99	5.90	—	—	4	65	59%	—	1	—
T. Blackmon	D	99	6.30	—	—	—	93	87%	1	1	—
É. Ocampo	D	84	6.30	—	—	—	57	54%	1	1	—
A. Cubas	M	84	6.60	—	—	—	73	68%	6	1	—
O. Larraz	M	99	6.30	—	1	1	58	53%	3	—	—
Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez	M	44	6.70	—	1	1	9	7%	—	—	—
R. Gauld	M	63	7.90	2	—	3	40	35%	1	—	—
J. Badwal	M	62	7.60	1	1	1	33	32%	1	—	—
B. White	F	99	5.90	—	—	—	16	11%	—	1	—
C. Sabaly	F	55	6.70	—	—	1	21	17%	1	—	—
Jean-Claude Ngando	M	37	6.70	—	—	2	27	22%	—	—	—
Nikola Djordjevic	D	36	6.70	—	—	—	17	13%	2	—	—
Ranko Veselinović	D	15	6.90	—	—	—	12	11%	—	—	—
R. Elloumi	F	15	6.20	—	—	—	5	4%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The final score was FC Cincinnati 4–3 Vancouver Whitecaps.

What did the model predict before FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model assigned 36% probability to a FC Cincinnati win, 19% to a draw, and 44% to an Vancouver Whitecaps win.