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Model wrong — prediction FC Copenhagen, result Draw
F. Etim (ast. A. Nygaard) 1'
J. Lindekilde (ast. D. F. Kristjansson) 24'
F. Etim (ast. J. Jessen) 83'
11' (ast. M. Elyounoussi) A. Cornelius
32' (ast. M. Lopez) M. Madsen
(pen.) 87' J. Larsson
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Copenhagen a 60% win probability (draw 20%, FC Fredericia 18%). The final result was FC Fredericia 3–3 FC Copenhagen. In 3 previous meetings, FC Fredericia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for FC Copenhagen.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
5
1.80
Actual xG
2.31
2
Saves
3
43%
Possession
57%
6
Corners
4
10
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
F. Etim · ast. A. Nygaard
1'
11'
ast. M. Elyounoussi · A. Cornelius
J. Lindekilde · ast. D. F. Kristjansson
24'
32'
ast. M. Lopez · M. Madsen
45'+1
W. Clem
S. Crone / J. Kudsk
46'
46'
T. Delaney / W. Clem
65'
V. Dadason / A. Cornelius
F. Rieper
69'
74'
Robert / E. Achouri
E. Simonsen / O. Buch
74'
S. Johannesen / G. Marcussen
74'
A. Nygaard / A. Dahl
82'
F. Etim · ast. J. Jessen
83'
87'
(pen.) J. Larsson
88'
G. Vianney / M. Madsen
88'
V. Claesson / M. Lopez
J. Lindekilde / P. Egelund
88'
90'+2
T. Delaney
90'+5
G. Vianney
Pre-match prediction
18.83%
FC
20.37%
X ←
60.8%
FC
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.37% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.96
1.80
+0.84
FC
2.11
2.31
+0.2
FC Copenhagen dominated by xG (2.31 vs 1.80). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen 8 21
2 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland 7 15
3 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 7 14
4 Viborg Viborg 8 14
5 Brondby Brondby 7 13
6 AC Horsens AC Horsens 8 10
7 Randers FC Randers FC 8 10
8 Odense Odense 8 8
9 Lyngby Lyngby 8 7
10 Silkeborg Silkeborg 8 7
11 Aarhus Aarhus 7 4
12 Sonderjyske Sonderjyske 8 2
Lineups
FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 4-2-3-1
90
G 6.90
8 Jakob Jessen Jakob Jessen 1 👟 D 6.90
5 Frederik Rieper Frederik Rieper D 6.30
3 Adam Nygaard Adam Nygaard 1 👟 82' D 7.20
12 S. Crone S. Crone 45' D 6.00
18 A. Pyndt A. Pyndt M 6.20
17 D. Kristjánsson D. Kristjánsson 1 👟 M 7.90
10 E. Simonsen E. Simonsen 74' M 6.90
21 Jonatan Lindekilde Jonatan Lindekilde 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.30
16 S. Johannesen S. Johannesen 74' M 6.90
25 F. Etim F. Etim 2 ⚽ F 9.00
Bench
14 Anders Dahl Anders Dahl 12' D 6.30
29 Elias Hansborg Elias Hansborg F
7 G. Marcussen G. Marcussen 20' M 6.50
4 Jeppe Kudsk Jeppe Kudsk 49' D 6.50
FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen 4-4-1-1
1
G 6.00
15 M. López M. López 1 👟 88' D 7.00
25 Zanka Zanka D 6.50
6
D 6.30
20 J. Suzuki J. Suzuki D 6.30
30 E. Achouri E. Achouri 74' M 7.30
36 W. Clem W. Clem 45' M 6.20
21 M. Emil Madsen M. Emil Madsen 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.50
11 J. Larsson J. Larsson 1 ⚽ M 7.00
10 M. Elyounoussi M. Elyounoussi 1 👟 F 6.90
14 A. Cornelius A. Cornelius 1 ⚽ 65' F 8.20
Bench
24 B. Meling B. Meling D
44 G. Vianney G. Vianney 6' F
16 Robert Robert 20' M 6.20
27 T. Delaney T. Delaney 49' M 6.90
39 V. Dadason V. Dadason 29' F 6.70
7 Viktor Claesson Viktor Claesson 6' M
9 Youssoufa Moukoko Youssoufa Moukoko F
Best on the pitch
F. Etim
F. Etim
F · FC
9.00
2 ⚽
4 shots · 14 pass
A. Cornelius
A. Cornelius
F · FC
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 20 pass
D. Kristjánsson
D. Kristjánsson
M · FC
7.90
1 👟
· 48 pass
M. Emil Madsen
M. Emil Madsen
M · FC
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 32 pass
Jonatan Lindekilde
Jonatan Lindekilde
M · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
E. Achouri
E. Achouri
M · FC
7.30
1 shots · 27 pass
FC Fredericia FC Fredericia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.90 16 11%
Jakob Jessen D 94 6.90 1 20 15% 2
Frederik Rieper D 94 6.30 51 39% 1 1
Adam Nygaard D 82 7.20 1 27 24%
S. Crone D 45 6.00 5 2% 1
A. Pyndt M 94 6.20 33 28%
D. Kristjánsson M 94 7.90 1 48 39% 2
E. Simonsen M 74 6.90 3 18 14% 1
Jonatan Lindekilde M 88 7.30 1 2 16 12%
S. Johannesen M 74 6.90 1 12 8%
F. Etim F 94 9.00 2 4 14 10% 2
Anders Dahl D 12 6.30 2 1% 1
G. Marcussen M 20 6.50 3 2%
Jeppe Kudsk D 49 6.50 1 17 11%
FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.00 27 22%
M. López D 88 7.00 1 1 44 37% 2
Zanka D 94 6.50 47 43% 2
D 94 6.30 1 42 38% 2
J. Suzuki D 94 6.30 1 34 26% 1
E. Achouri M 74 7.30 1 27 23% 3
W. Clem M 45 6.20 1 23 20% 1 1
M. Emil Madsen M 88 7.50 1 2 32 25% 4
J. Larsson M 94 7.00 1 1 33 28% 2
M. Elyounoussi F 94 6.90 1 2 40 33% 2
A. Cornelius F 65 8.20 1 2 20 16% 1
G. Vianney F 6 2 2%
Robert M 20 6.20 2 1% 1
T. Delaney M 49 6.90 22 16% 2 1
V. Dadason F 29 6.70 5 3%
Viktor Claesson M 6 4 4%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Fredericia vs FC Copenhagen?
The final score was FC Fredericia 3–3 FC Copenhagen.
What did the model predict before FC Fredericia vs FC Copenhagen?
The model assigned 18% probability to a FC Fredericia win, 20% to a draw, and 60% to an FC Copenhagen win.