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Super League · Regular Season - 10 October 10, 2026 18:00 Cornaredo, Lugano
FC Lugano
#1 · 31 pts
4 – 0
Final score
FC Luzern
#8 · 12 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Lugano
Daniel Dos Santos Correia (ast. Lars Lukas Mai) 12'
Rúben Dantas Fernandes 61' (og)
Daniel Dos Santos Correia (ast. Beckham Castro) 78'
Dereck Moncada (ast. David von Ballmoos) 87'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Lugano a 55% win probability (draw 22%, FC Luzern 22%). The final result was FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern. In 3 previous meetings, FC Lugano have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Luzern.

Match statistics
19
Total shots
16
7
Shots on target
4
2.64
Actual xG
0.95
4
Saves
4
60%
Possession
40%
8
Corners
7
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Behruzjon Karimov
4'
⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correia · ast. Lars Lukas Mai
12'
Daniel Dos Santos Correia
15'
Renato Steffen
35'
43'
Stefan Knezevic
↕ Lars Lukas Mai / Martim Marques
45'
45'
Pius Dorn / Bung Hua Freimann ↕
↕ Albian Ajeti / Beckham Castro
57'
↕ Renato Steffen / Dereck Moncada
57'
⚽Rúben Dantas Fernandes (og)
61'
66'
Leonardo Bertone
67'
Nando Toggenburger / Tyron Owusu ↕
67'
Lars Villiger / Daniel Mikołajewski ↕
69'
↕ Behruzjon Karimov / Damian Kelvin
74'
⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correia · ast. Beckham Castro
78'
79'
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira / Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb ↕
↕ Daniel Dos Santos Correia / Ahmed Kendouci
83'
83'
Levin Winkler / Mio Zimmermann ↕
⚽Dereck Moncada · ast. David von Ballmoos
87'
Pre-match prediction
55.48%
FC ←
22.18%
X
22.34%
FC
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Lugano) 55.48% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
2.96
2.64
-0.32
FC
1.36
0.95
-0.41
FC Lugano dominated by xG (2.64 vs 0.95). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Lugano FC Lugano 11 31
2 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys 11 25
3 FC Sion FC Sion 11 22
4 FC Zurich FC Zurich 11 17
5 Servette FC Servette FC 11 16
6 FC ST. Gallen FC ST. Gallen 11 16
7 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893 11 14
8 FC Luzern FC Luzern 11 12
9 FC Thun FC Thun 11 10
10 FC Vaduz FC Vaduz 11 9
11 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 11 9
12 Lausanne Lausanne 11 6
Lineups
FC Lugano FC Lugano 3-5-2
16 D. von Ballmoos D. von Ballmoos 1 👟 G 7.91
3 H. Delcroix H. Delcroix D 7.06
17 L. Mai L. Mai 1 👟 45' D 7.71
6 A. Papadopoulos A. Papadopoulos D 6.83
46 M. Zanotti M. Zanotti M 6.88
27 Daniel Dos Santos Daniel Dos Santos 2 ⚽ 83' M 9.59
21 Y. Cimignani Y. Cimignani M 6.15
8 A. Grgić A. Grgić M 7.20
2 B. Karimov B. Karimov 74' M 6.26
9 A. Ajeti A. Ajeti 57' F 6.95
11 R. Steffen R. Steffen 57' F 6.78
Bench
14 A. Kendouci A. Kendouci 7' M 6.47
22 B. Castro B. Castro 1 👟 33' F 7.25
4 D. Kelvin D. Kelvin 16' D 6.66
30 D. Moncada D. Moncada 1 ⚽ 33' F 7.70
7 E. Alioski E. Alioski D 0.00
28 F. Gebhardt F. Gebhardt G 0.00
18 J. Bichsel J. Bichsel D 0.00
91 K. Behrens K. Behrens F 0.00
26 Martim Marques Martim Marques 45' D 6.47
FC Luzern FC Luzern 4-2-2-2
30 K. Letica K. Letica G 5.54
22 R. Fernandes R. Fernandes 1 ⚽ D 4.87
46 B. Freimann B. Freimann 45' D 6.04
5 S. Knežević S. Knežević D 5.71
13 B. Freimann B. Freimann 45' D 6.04
6 L. Bertone L. Bertone M 5.90
80 Mio Zimmermann Mio Zimmermann 83' M 6.11
11 M. Di Giusto M. Di Giusto M 6.67
24 T. Owusu T. Owusu 67' M 5.88
19 D. Mikołajewski D. Mikołajewski 67' F 6.16
16 O. tshikomb O. tshikomb 79' F 6.43
Bench
9 A. Grbić A. Grbić F 0.00
7 A. Oehlers A. Oehlers F 0.00
29 Levin Winkler Levin Winkler 7' M 5.85
21 L. Lüthi L. Lüthi D 0.00
10 Lucas Ferreira Lucas Ferreira 11' M 5.64
27 L. Villiger L. Villiger 23' F 6.09
15 N. Toggenburger N. Toggenburger 23' F 6.63
20 P. Dorn P. Dorn 45' D 6.26
1 S. Simoni S. Simoni G 0.00
Best on the pitch
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos
M · FC
9.59
2 ⚽
4 shots · 30 pass
D. von Ballmoos
D. von Ballmoos
G · FC
7.91
1 👟
· 47 pass
L. Mai
L. Mai
D · FC
7.71
1 👟
· 46 pass
D. Moncada
D. Moncada
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 8 pass
B. Castro
B. Castro
F · FC
7.25
1 👟
2 shots · 11 pass
A. Grgić
A. Grgić
M · FC
7.20
1 shots · 71 pass
FC Lugano FC Lugano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. von Ballmoos G 90 7.91 — 1 0 47 31% 0 — —
H. Delcroix D 90 7.06 — — 1 83 77% 3 — —
L. Mai D 45 7.71 — 1 0 46 41% 1 — —
A. Papadopoulos D 90 6.83 — — 0 54 49% 0 — —
M. Zanotti M 90 6.88 — — 1 47 43% 4 — —
Daniel Dos Santos M 83 9.59 2 — 4 30 26% 2 1 —
Y. Cimignani M 90 6.15 — — 3 46 39% 1 — —
A. Grgić M 90 7.20 — — 1 71 68% 0 — —
B. Karimov M 74 6.26 — — 1 22 19% 1 1 —
A. Ajeti F 57 6.95 — — 3 10 8% 0 — —
R. Steffen F 57 6.78 — — 2 29 24% 0 1 —
A. Kendouci M 7 6.47 — — 0 11 8% 0 — —
B. Castro F 33 7.25 — 1 2 11 11% 1 — —
D. Kelvin D 16 6.66 — — 0 9 8% 0 — —
D. Moncada F 33 7.70 1 — 1 8 7% 1 — —
Martim Marques D 45 6.47 — — 0 24 19% 0 — —
FC Luzern FC Luzern — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
K. Letica G 90 5.54 — — 0 30 19% 0 — —
R. Fernandes D 90 4.87 1 — 1 40 31% 1 — —
B. Freimann D 45 6.04 — — 1 15 11% 3 — —
S. Knežević D 90 5.71 — — 0 57 45% 4 1 —
B. Freimann D 45 6.04 — — 1 15 11% 3 — —
L. Bertone M 90 5.90 — — 1 32 25% 0 1 —
Mio Zimmermann M 83 6.11 — — 2 24 19% 2 — —
M. Di Giusto M 90 6.67 — — 4 30 26% 0 — —
T. Owusu M 67 5.88 — — 0 14 11% 0 — —
D. Mikołajewski F 67 6.16 — — 0 11 7% 0 — —
O. tshikomb F 79 6.43 — — 2 10 6% 0 — —
Levin Winkler M 7 5.85 — — 1 9 9% 0 — —
Lucas Ferreira M 11 5.64 — — 1 12 11% 0 — —
L. Villiger F 23 6.09 — — 0 8 2% 0 — —
N. Toggenburger F 23 6.63 — — 1 5 4% 0 — —
P. Dorn D 45 6.26 — — 1 22 18% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Lugano vs FC Luzern?
The final score was FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern.
What did the model predict before FC Lugano vs FC Luzern?
The model assigned 55% probability to a FC Lugano win, 22% to a draw, and 22% to an FC Luzern win.