Conference League
· League Stage - 1
October 15, 2026 18:45
A. Ajeti
(ast. R. Steffen)
25'
D. Moncada
(ast. Y. Cimignani)
84'
A. Grgic
89'
(pen.)
32'
(ast. M. Gashtarov)
T. Elsnik
67'
(ast. M. Cham)
R. Krunic
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Lugano a 40% win probability (draw 30%, FK Crvena Zvezda 29%). The final result was FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
15
4
Shots on target
5
1.46
Actual xG
1.07
3
Saves
2
40%
Possession
60%
4
Corners
2
17
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽A. Ajeti
· ast. R. Steffen
25'
32'
ast. M. Gashtarov ·
T. Elsnik⚽
33'
V. Kostov
R. Steffen
53'
L. Mai
55'
R. Steffen
/ E. Pihlstrom
63'
A. Ajeti
/ K. Behrens
63'
64'
M. Cham
/
T. Handel
67'
ast. M. Cham ·
R. Krunic⚽
B. Karimov
/ D. Moncada
73'
75'
K. Balov
/
V. Lucic
75'
M. Strika
/
M. Ristic
D. Dos Santos
/ B. D. Castro Espinosa
79'
H. Delcroix
/ E. Alioski
79'
81'
M. Bajo
/
R. Krunic
81'
M. Arnautovic
/
B. Dieng
82'
S. Gudelj
⚽D. Moncada
· ast. Y. Cimignani
84'
88'
M. Bajo
89'
A. Riera
⚽A. Grgic
(pen.)
89'
90'+4
M. Gashtarov
Pre-match prediction
40.57%
FC ←
30.09%
X
29.35%
FK
we assigned to the actual result (FC Lugano)
40.57%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
1.46
+0.14
1.03
1.07
+0.04
FC Lugano dominated by xG (1.46 vs 1.07).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
16
D. von Ballmoos
87'
G
D. von Ballmoos
87'
G
3
H. Delcroix
79'
D
H. Delcroix
79'
D
17
L. Mai
87'
D
L. Mai
87'
D
6
A. Papadopoulos
87'
D
A. Papadopoulos
87'
D
21
Y. Cimignani
1 👟
87'
M
Y. Cimignani
1 👟
87'
M
8
A. Grgić
1 ⚽
87'
M
A. Grgić
1 ⚽
87'
M
25
U. Bislimi
87'
M
U. Bislimi
87'
M
2
B. Karimov
73'
M
B. Karimov
73'
M
27
Daniel Dos Santos
79'
F
Daniel Dos Santos
79'
F
11
R. Steffen
1 👟
63'
F
R. Steffen
1 👟
63'
F
9
A. Ajeti
1 ⚽
63'
F
A. Ajeti
1 ⚽
63'
F
Bench
14
A. Kendouci
M
A. Kendouci
M
22
B. Castro
8'
F
B. Castro
8'
F
99
Diego Mina
G
Diego Mina
G
4
D. Kelvin
D
D. Kelvin
D
30
D. Moncada
1 ⚽
14'
F
D. Moncada
1 ⚽
14'
F
7
E. Alioski
8'
D
E. Alioski
8'
D
24
E. Pihlström
24'
F
E. Pihlström
24'
F
28
F. Gebhardt
G
F. Gebhardt
G
91
K. Behrens
24'
F
K. Behrens
24'
F
26
Martim Marques
D
Martim Marques
D
1
Matheus
87'
G
Matheus
87'
G
23
M. Ristić
75'
D
M. Ristić
75'
D
3
Y. Nakayama
87'
D
Y. Nakayama
87'
D
45
S. Gudelj
87'
D
S. Gudelj
87'
D
60
Matej Gaštarov
1 👟
87'
D
Matej Gaštarov
1 👟
87'
D
37
V. Lučić
75'
D
V. Lučić
75'
D
22
V. Kostov
87'
M
V. Kostov
87'
M
20
Tomás Händel
64'
M
Tomás Händel
64'
M
33
R. Krunić
1 ⚽
81'
M
R. Krunić
1 ⚽
81'
M
21
Timi Max Elšnik
1 ⚽
87'
M
Timi Max Elšnik
1 ⚽
87'
M
9
B. Dieng
81'
F
B. Dieng
81'
F
Bench
55
D. Saric
M
D. Saric
M
30
F. Tebo Uchenna
D
F. Tebo Uchenna
D
77
I. Guteša
G
I. Guteša
G
8
K. Balov
12'
F
K. Balov
12'
F
7
M. Arnautović
6'
F
M. Arnautović
6'
F
6
M. Bajo
6'
M
M. Bajo
6'
M
70
M. Cham
1 👟
23'
M
M. Cham
1 👟
23'
M
27
M. Strika
12'
D
M. Strika
12'
D
13
M. Veljković
D
M. Veljković
D
50
S. Radanović
G
S. Radanović
G
19
Ye-geon Kim
M
Ye-geon Kim
M
Best on the pitch
R. Krunić
M · FK
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
Timi Max Elšnik
M · FK
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 52 pass
Matej Gaštarov
D · FK
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 77 pass
A. Ajeti
F · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 6 pass
M. Cham
M · FK
7.30
1 👟
· 10 pass
K. Behrens
F · FC
7.20
1 shots
· 8 pass
FC Lugano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. von Ballmoos | G | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | — | — | — |
| H. Delcroix | D | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Mai | D | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 59 | 56% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Papadopoulos | D | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | 4 | — | — |
| Y. Cimignani | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| A. Grgić | M | 87 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| U. Bislimi | M | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Karimov | M | 73 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Dos Santos | F | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| R. Steffen | F | 63 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ajeti | F | 63 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Castro | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| D. Moncada | F | 14 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| E. Alioski | D | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Pihlström | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Behrens | F | 24 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
FK Crvena Zvezda — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus | G | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 45% | — | — | — |
| M. Ristić | D | 75 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Y. Nakayama | D | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 70% | 4 | — | — |
| S. Gudelj | D | 87 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 51% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matej Gaštarov | D | 87 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 77 | 73% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Lučić | D | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| V. Kostov | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tomás Händel | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | — | — | — |
| R. Krunić | M | 81 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Timi Max Elšnik | M | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 52 | 45% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Dieng | F | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | 6 | 21 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Balov | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Arnautović | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Bajo | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Cham | M | 23 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| M. Strika | D | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
The final score was FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
What did the model predict before FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
The model assigned 40% probability to a FC Lugano win, 30% to a draw, and 29% to an FK Crvena Zvezda win.