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Premier League · Regular Season - 10 October 10, 2026 12:00 Gazovik Stadium, Rostoshi
FC Orenburg
#6 · 16 pts
4 – 0
Final score
Dinamo Makhachkala
#10 · 13 pts
Gedeon Guzina (ast. Jordhy Thompson) 17'
Jhon Alex Palacios (ast. Ruslan Kul) 39'
Gedeon Guzina (ast. Damian Puebla) 53'
Jordhy Thompson 69' (pen.)
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Orenburg a 32% win probability (draw 35%, Dinamo Makhachkala 32%). The final result was FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala. In 2 previous meetings, FC Orenburg have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Dinamo Makhachkala.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
13
8
Shots on target
4
3.88
Actual xG
1.21
4
Saves
4
38%
Possession
62%
8
Corners
4
14
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Gedeon Guzina · ast. Jordhy Thompson
17'
⚽Jhon Alex Palacios · ast. Ruslan Kul
39'
45'
Andres Alarcon / Ilyas Akhmedov ↕
45'
Valdemiro Pinto Domingos / Marat Apshatsev ↕
⚽Gedeon Guzina · ast. Damian Puebla
53'
54'
Nikita Karabashev
66'
⚽Jordhy Thompson (pen.)
69'
↕ Jordhy Thompson / Anton Lukashov
70'
↕ Dmitriy Rybchinskiy / Andrey Kasadzhikov
70'
74'
Dmitriy Aleksandrov / Houssem Mrezigue ↕
74'
Kirill Zinovich / Gamid Agalarov ↕
↕ Aleksey Tataev / Danila Khotulev
78'
↕ Damian Puebla / Renat Golybin
78'
78'
Vladimir Khubulov / Daniil Lesovoy ↕
↕ Gedeon Guzina / Egor Nazarenko
81'
Pre-match prediction
32.15%
FC ←
35.64%
X
32.21%
Dinamo
we assigned to the actual result (FC Orenburg) 32.15% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.62
3.88
+3.26
Dinamo
0.71
1.21
+0.5
FC Orenburg dominated by xG (3.88 vs 1.21). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Zenit Zenit 12 27
2 Dynamo Dynamo 12 25
3 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow 12 25
4 FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 12 23
5 Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 12 23
6 FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 12 16
7 FC Rostov FC Rostov 12 15
8 Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov 12 15
9 Baltika Baltika 12 14
10 Dinamo Makhachkala Dinamo Makhachkala 12 13
11 Rubin Rubin 12 12
12 Akron Akron 12 12
13 Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 12 11
14 Akhmat Akhmat 12 11
15 Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 12 9
16 Fakel Fakel 12 6
Lineups
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
1 B. Ovsyannikov B. Ovsyannikov G 7.76
26 E. Tsenov E. Tsenov D 7.26
5 A. Tataev A. Tataev 78' D 6.88
6 J. Palacios J. Palacios 1 ⚽ D 8.27
24 M. Sivis M. Sivis D 6.43
57 E. Bolotov E. Bolotov M 6.21
78 R. Kul R. Kul 1 👟 M 7.01
20 D. Rybchinskiy D. Rybchinskiy 70' M 6.51
8 D. Puebla D. Puebla 1 👟 78' M 7.70
10 J. Thompson J. Thompson 1 ⚽ 1 👟 70' M 7.70
30 G. Guzina G. Guzina 2 ⚽ 81' F 8.76
Bench
35 A. Degtev A. Degtev G 0.00
77 A. Kasadzhikov A. Kasadzhikov 20' F 6.77
38 A. Kasimov A. Kasimov D 0.00
22 A. Lukashov A. Lukashov 20' D 7.10
21 Benjamín Bosch Benjamín Bosch F 0.00
4 D. Khotulev D. Khotulev 12' D 7.06
3 D. Vedernikov D. Vedernikov D 0.00
11 E. Nazarenko E. Nazarenko 9' M 6.80
80 M. Pykhcheev M. Pykhcheev M 0.00
63 O. Minatulaev O. Minatulaev M 0.00
27 Renat Golybin Renat Golybin 12' M 6.86
2 S. Poroykov S. Poroykov D 0.00
Dinamo Makhachkala Dinamo Makhachkala 5-3-2
33 N. Karabashev N. Karabashev G 6.06
77 T. Sundukov T. Sundukov D 5.88
88 D. Lesovoy D. Lesovoy 78' D 4.96
99 M. Alibekov M. Alibekov D 5.70
43 I. Akhmedov I. Akhmedov 45' D 5.57
23 M. Makhamadjonov M. Makhamadjonov D 5.64
14 D. Kuzyaev D. Kuzyaev M 5.78
6 M. Apshatsev M. Apshatsev 45' M 5.38
47 N. Glushkov N. Glushkov M 6.21
25 G. Agalarov G. Agalarov 74' F 6.62
16 H. Mrezigue H. Mrezigue 74' F 6.48
Bench
24 A. Alarcón A. Alarcón 45' D 5.83
21 Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov M 0.00
30 D. Aleksandrov D. Aleksandrov 16' M 5.88
1 D. Volk D. Volk G 0.00
19 K. Zinovich K. Zinovich 16' M 6.16
10 M. Hosseinnezhad M. Hosseinnezhad M 0.00
11 Miro Miro 45' F 6.11
9 R. Magomedov R. Magomedov M 0.00
13 S. Kagermazov S. Kagermazov D 0.00
28 S. Serderov S. Serderov F 0.00
39 T. Magomedov T. Magomedov G 0.00
8 V. Khubulov V. Khubulov 12' M 5.99
Best on the pitch
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
F · FC
8.76
2 ⚽
7 shots · 19 pass
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
D · FC
8.27
1 ⚽
2 shots · 18 pass
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov
G · FC
7.76
· 17 pass
D. Puebla
D. Puebla
M · FC
7.70
1 👟
3 shots · 16 pass
J. Thompson
J. Thompson
M · FC
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 25 pass
E. Tsenov
E. Tsenov
D · FC
7.26
· 22 pass
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Ovsyannikov G 90 7.76 — — 0 17 7% 0 — —
E. Tsenov D 90 7.26 — — 0 22 12% 1 — —
A. Tataev D 78 6.88 — — 2 15 8% 0 — —
J. Palacios D 90 8.27 1 — 2 18 8% 1 — —
M. Sivis D 90 6.43 — — 0 30 17% 3 — —
E. Bolotov M 90 6.21 — — 2 33 21% 3 — —
R. Kul M 90 7.01 — 1 0 32 19% 1 — —
D. Rybchinskiy M 70 6.51 — — 0 16 9% 0 — —
D. Puebla M 78 7.70 — 1 3 16 12% 1 — —
J. Thompson M 70 7.70 1 1 1 25 21% 1 — —
G. Guzina F 81 8.76 2 — 7 19 8% 1 — —
A. Kasadzhikov F 20 6.77 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
A. Lukashov D 20 7.10 — — 0 3 3% 1 — —
D. Khotulev D 12 7.06 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
E. Nazarenko M 9 6.80 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
Renat Golybin M 12 6.86 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
Dinamo Makhachkala Dinamo Makhachkala — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Karabashev G 90 6.06 — — 0 21 14% 0 1 —
T. Sundukov D 90 5.88 — — 3 19 13% 1 — —
D. Lesovoy D 78 4.96 — — 2 32 22% 0 — —
M. Alibekov D 90 5.70 — — 1 68 51% 3 — —
I. Akhmedov D 45 5.57 — — 0 31 23% 1 — —
M. Makhamadjonov D 90 5.64 — — 0 58 43% 4 — —
D. Kuzyaev M 90 5.78 — — 1 39 31% 0 — —
M. Apshatsev M 45 5.38 — — 0 35 27% 0 — —
N. Glushkov M 90 6.21 — — 3 17 13% 2 — —
G. Agalarov F 74 6.62 — — 0 12 10% 0 — —
H. Mrezigue F 74 6.48 — — 1 52 46% 0 — —
A. Alarcón D 45 5.83 — — 0 21 17% 1 — —
D. Aleksandrov M 16 5.88 — — 0 9 6% 1 — —
K. Zinovich M 16 6.16 — — 2 11 5% 0 — —
Miro F 45 6.11 — — 0 10 7% 0 — —
V. Khubulov M 12 5.99 — — 0 5 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
The final score was FC Orenburg 4–0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
What did the model predict before FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
The model assigned 32% probability to a FC Orenburg win, 35% to a draw, and 32% to an Dinamo Makhachkala win.