← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 23:30
FC Porto
#1 · 85 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Famalicao
#5 · 53 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction FC Porto, result Pareggio
A. Costa (ast. T. Moffi) 35'
S. Fofana (ast. M. Fernandes) 90'
54' Sorriso
90' R. Pinheiro

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Famalicao 13%). The final result was FC Porto 2–2 Famalicao. In 2 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Famalicao.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.43
Actual xG
1.62
4
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
3
6
Tackles
22
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Zaidu Sanusi
21'
⚽A. Costa · ast. T. Moffi
35'
↕ R. Mora / S. Fofana
44'
45'+2
Tom Van De Looi
↕ Zaidu / M. Fernandes
46'
↕ O. Pietuszewski / William Gomes
46'
54'
Sorriso⚽
William Gomes
55'
↕ T. Moffi / D. Gul
61'
61'
M. Pena / M. De Amorim ↕
Jan Bednarek
69'
Alan Varela
70'
↕ Pepê / B. Sainz
74'
79'
P. Santos / G. Sa ↕
90'+5
Rafa Soares
90'+6
Justin De Haas
Alberto Costa
90'+6
90'
R. Beney / Sorriso ↕
⚽S. Fofana · ast. M. Fernandes
90'
90'
R. Pinheiro⚽
Pre-match prediction
67.93%
FC
18.78%
X ←
13.29%
Famalicao
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.78% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
2.25
0.43
-1.82
Famalicao
0.95
1.62
+0.67
Famalicao dominated by xG (1.62 vs 0.43). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.60
12
Zaidu 45' D 6.90
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior D 7.00
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 6.70
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 ⚽ D 7.70
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 44' M 6.50
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 7.20
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt M 5.90
77 Oskar Pietuszewski Oskar Pietuszewski 45' F 6.50
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 1 👟 61' F 6.70
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 74' F 7.20
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 27' F 6.30
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül 40' F 6.30
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura D
52
M. Fernandes 1 👟 56' D 6.20
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario M
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 1 ⚽ 57' M 7.60
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
7 William William 56' F 6.30
Famalicao Famalicao 4-2-3-1
25 Lazar Carević Lazar Carević G 6.30
5 Rafa Soares Rafa Soares D 6.90
16 Justin De Haas Justin De Haas D 6.70
55
I. Ba D 6.50
17
R. Pinheiro 1 ⚽ D 7.70
14 Mathias De Amorim Mathias De Amorim 61' M 6.60
6 Tom Van De Looi Tom Van De Looi M 6.30
7 Sorriso Sorriso 1 ⚽ M 7.30
20 Gustavo Sá Gustavo Sá 79' M 6.90
23 Gil Dias Gil Dias M 6.90
12 Simon Elisor Simon Elisor F 6.20
Bench
80 Pedro Santos Pedro Santos 22' F 6.30
9 Umar Abubakar Umar Abubakar F
Best on the pitch
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 36 pass
R. Pinheiro
D · Famalicao
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 45 pass
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana
M · FC
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 22 pass
Sorriso
Sorriso
M · Famalicao
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 18 pass
A. Varela
A. Varela
M · FC
7.20
· 47 pass
Pepê Aquino
Pepê Aquino
F · FC
7.20
1 shots · 19 pass
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 101 6.60 — — — 21 16% — — —
Zaidu D 45 6.90 — — — 17 12% 1 1 —
Jakub Kiwior D 101 7.00 — — — 93 81% — — —
J. Bednarek D 101 6.70 — — — 91 85% — 1 —
Alberto Baio D 101 7.70 1 — 1 36 27% 2 1 —
Rodrigo Mora M 44 6.50 — — — 6 4% — — —
A. Varela M 101 7.20 — — — 47 41% — 1 —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 101 5.90 — — — 18 17% — — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 45 6.50 — — — 11 6% — — —
Terem Moffi F 61 6.70 — 1 1 5 2% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 74 7.20 — — 1 19 15% 1 — —
Borja Sainz F 27 6.30 — — — 5 3% — — —
Deniz Gül F 40 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
M. Fernandes D 56 6.20 — 1 — 14 11% 1 — —
Seko Fofana M 57 7.60 1 — 2 22 20% 1 — —
William F 56 6.30 — — — 14 11% — 1 —
Famalicao Famalicao — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Lazar Carević G 101 6.30 — — — 33 32% — — —
Rafa Soares D 101 6.90 — — 1 41 33% 5 1 —
Justin De Haas D 101 6.70 — — 1 51 46% 1 1 —
I. Ba D 101 6.50 — — — 64 53% — — —
R. Pinheiro D 101 7.70 1 — 1 45 36% 3 — —
Mathias De Amorim M 61 6.60 — — 1 17 13% 3 — —
Tom Van De Looi M 101 6.30 — — 1 37 29% 2 1 —
Sorriso M 90 7.30 1 — 2 18 13% 1 — —
Gustavo Sá M 79 6.90 — — 2 33 25% 3 — —
Gil Dias M 101 6.90 — — — 37 26% 3 — —
Simon Elisor F 101 6.20 — — 1 14 13% — — —
Pedro Santos F 22 6.30 — — — 5 3% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Famalicao?
The final score was FC Porto 2–2 Famalicao.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Famalicao?
The model assigned 67% probability to a FC Porto win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Famalicao win.