✗Model wrong — prediction FC Porto, result Draw
A. Costa
(ast. T. Moffi)
35'
S. Fofana
(ast. M. Fernandes)
90'
54'
Sorriso
90'
R. Pinheiro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Famalicao 13%). The final result was FC Porto 2–2 Famalicao. In 2 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Famalicao.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.43
Actual xG
1.62
4
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
3
6
Tackles
22
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Zaidu Sanusi
21'
⚽A. Costa
· ast. T. Moffi
35'
R. Mora
/ S. Fofana
44'
45'+2
Tom Van De Looi
Zaidu
/ M. Fernandes
46'
O. Pietuszewski
/ William Gomes
46'
54'
Sorriso⚽
William Gomes
55'
T. Moffi
/ D. Gul
61'
61'
M. Pena
/
M. De Amorim
Jan Bednarek
69'
Alan Varela
70'
Pepê
/ B. Sainz
74'
79'
P. Santos
/
G. Sa
90'+5
Rafa Soares
90'+6
Justin De Haas
Alberto Costa
90'+6
90'
R. Beney
/
Sorriso
⚽S. Fofana
· ast. M. Fernandes
90'
90'
R. Pinheiro⚽
Pre-match prediction
67.93%
FC
18.78%
X ←
13.29%
Famalicao
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.78%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
0.43
-1.82
0.95
1.62
+0.67
Famalicao dominated by xG (1.62 vs 0.43).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
99
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
12
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
4
J. Kiwior
D
J. Kiwior
D
5
J. Bednarek
D
J. Bednarek
D
20
Alberto Baio
1 ⚽
D
Alberto Baio
1 ⚽
D
86
Rodrigo Mora
44'
M
Rodrigo Mora
44'
M
22
A. Varela
M
A. Varela
M
8
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
77
O. Pietuszewski
45'
F
O. Pietuszewski
45'
F
29
T. Moffi
1 👟
61'
F
T. Moffi
1 👟
61'
F
11
Pepê Aquino
74'
F
Pepê Aquino
74'
F
Bench
17
Borja Sainz
27'
F
Borja Sainz
27'
F
27
D. Gül
40'
F
D. Gül
40'
F
74
Francisco Moura
D
Francisco Moura
D
52
Martim Fernandes
1 👟
56'
D
Martim Fernandes
1 👟
56'
D
13
P. Rosario
M
P. Rosario
M
42
S. Fofana
1 ⚽
57'
M
S. Fofana
1 ⚽
57'
M
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
7
William
56'
F
William
56'
F
25
L. Carević
G
L. Carević
G
5
Rafa Soares
D
Rafa Soares
D
16
J. de Haas
D
J. de Haas
D
55
Ibrahima Ba
D
Ibrahima Ba
D
17
Rodrigo Pinheiro
1 ⚽
D
Rodrigo Pinheiro
1 ⚽
D
14
Mathias De Amorim
61'
M
Mathias De Amorim
61'
M
6
Tom Van De Looi
M
Tom Van De Looi
M
7
Sorriso
1 ⚽
M
Sorriso
1 ⚽
M
20
Gustavo Sá
79'
M
Gustavo Sá
79'
M
23
Gil Dias
M
Gil Dias
M
12
S. Elisor
F
S. Elisor
F
Bench
80
Pedro Santos
22'
F
Pedro Santos
22'
F
9
U. Abubakar
F
U. Abubakar
F
Best on the pitch
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 36 pass
Rodrigo Pinheiro
D · Famalicao
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
S. Fofana
M · FC
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
Sorriso
M · Famalicao
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 18 pass
A. Varela
M · FC
7.20
· 47 pass
Pepê Aquino
F · FC
7.20
1 shots
· 19 pass
FC Porto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 101 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Z. Sanusi | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Kiwior | D | 101 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 93 | 81% | — | — | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 101 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 91 | 85% | — | 1 | — |
| Alberto Baio | D | 101 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 36 | 27% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 44 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. Varela | M | 101 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 101 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| O. Pietuszewski | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
| T. Moffi | F | 61 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Pepê Aquino | F | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Borja Sainz | F | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| D. Gül | F | 40 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Martim Fernandes | D | 56 | 6.20 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Fofana | M | 57 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| William | F | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
Famalicao — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carević | G | 101 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 101 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 33% | 5 | 1 | — |
| J. de Haas | D | 101 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ibrahima Ba | D | 101 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 64 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro | D | 101 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| Mathias De Amorim | M | 61 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| Tom Van De Looi | M | 101 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 29% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sorriso | M | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Sá | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Gil Dias | M | 101 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Elisor | F | 101 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | F | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Famalicao?
The final score was FC Porto 2–2 Famalicao.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Famalicao?
The model assigned 67% probability to a FC Porto win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Famalicao win.